It all comes down to this. After dozens of races and thousands of laps, four drivers have one race to claim NASCAR's ultimate prize. The Championship 4 will be the focal point on Sunday, and one of them is highly likely to take the checkered flag.
Get the NASCAR betting low-down with Covers Experts' Auto Racing Advisor preview and picks for the 2021 Cup Series Championship, which gets underway at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 7.
Cup Series Championship favorites
Kyle Larson (+190)
This isn’t one of his better tracks. Larson does have two Top 5s in his last three there, but was only seventh in the spring race after leading just one lap. Can he find the speed to win? His teammate Chase Elliott did last year.
His finishes on short ovals this year – 7th (Phoenix), 5th (Martinsville spring), 18th (Richmond spring), 2nd (Dover), 7th (Loudon), 6th (Richmond playoffs), 1st (Bristol playoffs) and 14th (Martinsville Fall).
Can his crew do enough to make him better with a championship on the line at Phoenix?
Martin Truex Jr. (+450)
He finally won at Phoenix in the spring. It was a huge load off of his shoulders because, quite frankly, until he joined Joe Gibbs Racing, he never was much of a threat there either.
But, Truex has finished third in the Fall of 2017, fifth in the spring race of 2018, runner-up in the spring race of 2019 and sixth and 10th respectively in his last two November starts to go along with his March win. That makes him a viable “favorite”, especially since he won at Martinsville and Richmond in the spring too.
On short track this year, Truex won at Phoenix (64 laps led) and Martinsville (20 laps led) in the spring and Richmond (80 laps led) during the playoffs. He was also fifth in Richmond (107 laps led) this spring after what should have been another Top 2-or-3 result that day, and fourth last weekend in Martinsville’s return trip.
Denny Hamlin (+400)
The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has nine Top-10 finishes in his last 11 starts in the desert. Hamlin has four Top-5 finishes in his last five Phoenix starts as well as being at his best on short tracks this season.
He finished third in Phoenix (33 laps led), third at Martinsville (276 laps led spring, 103 in the fall), second in both races at Richmond (207 laps led, 197 laps led), seventh at Dover, 10th at Loudon (1 lap led) and ninth at Bristol.
Chase Elliott (+350)
This is a tough one, but for his odds, why not? Elliott enters Phoenix with three finishes in the desert of 14th or worse in his last six tries. But, he won this race last year, was fifth in the spring and has five Top 7s in his last eight on this track.
Cup Series Championship long-shot picks
Kyle Busch (+1,600)
This may be one of his best tracks now. “Rowdy” enters Phoenix with 10 Top-7 finishes, including nine in the Top 4 in his last 12 tries. In 2018, and again in 2019, he was first or second in both events. He finished third in the spring race of 2020, but 11th and 25th since, as well.
Joey Logano (+2,200)
You need to use him now. Logano didn’t used to be among those to beat at Phoenix, but over his last five starts, he has five consecutive Top-10 finishes, including a win in the spring race last year, a third in this race a year ago, as well as a runner-up this past spring. In the spring race here, he led the most laps (143), too.
He was sixth (six laps led) and 10th in Martinsville, third (49 laps led) and fifth (zero laps led) in Richmond, and if not for an early-race penalty, would have likely been in the hunt for a win in Loudon as he made up two laps to finish fourth.
Kevin Harvick (+2,800)
The proverbial “king of the desert” has been astounding in Phoenix. Since 2012, Harvick has seven wins to go along with 10 Top-2 finishes (19 tries). Furthermore, Harvick has finished worse than seventh just twice in those 19 starts too.
Harvick hasn’t exactly been like the Harvick of old at Phoenix lately. While he does have seven wins, he’s not won since the track was reconfigured. He’s 0-for-6.
Five of his last six Phoenix results have seen him finish fifth or worse. 10 of his previous 13 on the old configuration saw him finish fourth or better.
Cup Series Championship matchup pick
Kyle Larson (-140) vs. Chase Elliott (+115)
The defending Cup champion is getting plus money at a track he's actually pretty good on. He won this very race at this very moment last year. Meanwhile, the pressure is all on his teammate, Larson, who won nine times this past season and would be labeled a disappointment if he didn't win the race and the title on Sunday. The thing is, Larson isn't all that great at Phoenix.
PICK: Elliott (+115)
Cup Series Championship fades
Alex Bowman (+2,500)
He has never scored a Top 10 in seven starts at Phoenix with HMS.
Tyler Reddick (+6,000)
He was 33rd, 19th and 29th in his three Phoenix starts in Cup.
Cup Series Championship preview
The preview for this is simple. One of the four drivers that’s left in the NASCAR Cup Series championship is more than likely going to win Sunday’s race. Since this Championship 4 format was added in 2014, all seven years have seen the race winner win the championship too.
It’s 7-for-7 in this format, but 2-for-42 prior.
So, let’s just make this preview short and simple – how do the four drivers that can win the championship this weekend at the Phoenix Raceway fare on the 1-mile tracks. Also, how do the teams do?
Back in March saw Team Penske go 1-2-3 in Stage 1, 1-4-5 in Stage 2, 1-4-10 in the race and lead 63 percent (197 of 312) of the laps. JGR went 4-6 (Hamlin, KyBusch) in Stage 1, 2-3 in Stage 2 and 1-3 in the race with leading 31 percent (97 of 312) of the laps. Combined, that’s 294 of the 312 laps (94 percent) led with finishing 1-2-3-4 in the race and 1-2-3-6 in Stage 1 and 1-2-3-4-5 in Stage 2.
Last year, Penske and JGR had three of the four cars in this very race.
This year’s participants are Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr. Larson and Hamlin have had a heavyweight fight for the prize all season.
See, Hamlin started off the season with eight Top-5 finishes in the first nine races. Larson, though, picked up where Hamlin couldn’t in putting his car in victory lane. Where Hamlin dominated Top 5s, Larson hogged Top 2s. That allowed him to make up 154 points on Hamlin from Mother’s Day weekend through the regular season finale at Daytona.
But, once the playoffs started, Hamlin showed that he’s not going to go away. These two traded jabs in a friendly manner throughout this entire postseason.
Hamlin won the Southern 500 to kick off the playoffs, while Larson won the Bristol Night Race to end the first round. Hamlin then won the opening race of the Round of 12 in Las Vegas before Larson won the last race of the second round on the Charlotte ROVAL.
Combined, they won 67 percent (6-for-9) of the playoff races, won 56 percent of the stages (10-for-18) and led 55 percent of the laps (1,589-for-2,862). Between them, they won five of the nine first stages, five of the nine second stages and when they weren’t winning stages, they were in the Top 4 of them.
Hamlin has eight finishes inside the Top 4 in the 18 stages run, with Larson scoring 11.
They’ve dominated the postseason. Now, they have company in a winner-take-all format at Phoenix. The first one among Larson, Hamlin, Chase Elliott and to cross the finish line Sunday in Phoenix will earn the season championship. What if it’s not either Larson or Hamlin?
It can happen.
Larson led just one lap earlier this year at Phoenix. Hamlin has been in this position before, but never taken home the championship, as well as entering this weekend backing his way in. He led 545 laps, scored two wins, four stage wins and a Top-4 finish in every stage run in the first four playoff races. His last five races and 10 stages? One finish better than seventh in the stages, 33 laps led and no finish better than fifth overall.
Can he turn it back around in Phoenix?
The door is open now. Elliott just won this race and took home the title last year. Truex won here in the spring.
