NASCAR's season of uncertainty hasn't gotten much clearer, with another streak of longshot drivers taking checkered flags as we head to one of NASCAR's newest and most unknown tracks — Nashville Superspeedway — for just the second running of the Ally 400.
Here are our best Ally 400 picks and predictions for Sunday afternoon in Music City, with the green flag scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET.
You can also get a breakdown of the field's prices in our Ally 400 odds.
Ally 400 best bets
Picks made on 6/22/22 at 11:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick above to jump to the full analysis.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ally 400 favorites
Kyle Busch (+750)
He has a pair of Xfinity Series wins (2009, 2021) and a pair of Truck Series wins (2010, 2011) at Nashville to go along with being arguably one of the hottest drivers on the season right now too (three Top 3s in the last four races).
Chase Elliott (+800)
While he was DQ’ed a year ago and is backing his way into this weekend, Elliott won at Dover and was fifth at Darlington earlier this season, which are the two of the closest tracks in comparison to Nashville.
Ross Chastain (+800)
He was third at Dover, had a car capable of winning Darlington, and was runner-up here a year ago. Need I say any more?
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Ally 400 longshot picks
Christopher Bell (+2,000)
Finished in the Top 10 last year and was in the Top 6 this year at both Dover and Darlington.
Kevin Harvick (+2,500)
He has a pair of Xfinity Series wins (2006, 2010) at Nashville, was fifth last year, and is starting to heat up on the season (five Top 10s in last seven), including being fourth on a like track at Darlington back in May and ninth a week prior at Dover.
Daniel Suarez (+3,000)
He was seventh last year, 10th at Dover, and had a good car in Darlington, too. Suarez coming off a win in Sonoma doesn’t hurt either.
Ally 400 fades
Kyle Larson (+450)
He won last year’s race after leading all but 36 laps. He was also second and first respectively in the two stages. On top of that, Larson dominated at Dover and won in Bristol (2two other concrete tracks) in 2021 too. This year, he was sixth (Dover) and 36th (Darlington) which is why, as of now, I’m fading him.
Denny Hamlin (+1,000)
He was 21st in Dover, 21st in Darlington, and 21st in this race last year.
Ryan Blaney (+1,200)
These are his worst type of tracks. Blaney was 37th in 2021 and was 17th this year in Darlington, as well as 12th at Dover too. He’s had five finishes outside the Top 10 in the last seven points-paying events on the season.
Ally 400 matchup pick
Kyle Larson (-140) vs. Kyle Busch (+120)
Larson hasn’t fared well on like tracks this season while Busch not only has, but he also enters with some major momentum.
PICK: Busch (+120)
Ally 400 preview
Nashville is in its second year, but with a new car, so how much of last year’s results can you apply to this one? The biggest factor is that Nashville raced a lot like Dover and Darlington in 2021, so if you look at how those two races played out in May, some similarities shine through.
Trackhouse Racing appears to be one of the favorites to watch. Ross Chastain enters with a great shot at his third victory of the season. Daniel Suarez, who became the 12th different winner on the season already in Sonoma, is also a good look. They have the momentum now, heading to a track that suited them last year, with success on like tracks this year, too.
Hendrick Motorsports I worry about a little, however. Kyle Larson has just one Top 5 in his last six races run. Alex Bowman only has one Top 5 in his last 10. Chase Elliott has two in that same span. William Byron hasn’t had a Top 5 since his Martinsville win (eight races). While Larson led all but 36 laps in this race last year, do you really trust them right now — especially with the suspension of Cliff Daniels?
With liking only Elliott and the Trackhouse duo from the Chevy camp, it opens the doors for others.
Joe Gibbs Racing also has looked really good on intermediate tracks but not necessarily the ones like Nashville though. Also, did they lose their momentum in Sonoma (26th, 27th, 30th, and 31st).
I still like Busch and Bell, but will fade the others.
By virtue of this, you also can go with a couple of really long shots like Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+6,000) and Justin Haley (+25,000). Stenhouse was in the Top 10 last year as well being in the Top 10 at Darlington this past May. Haley was 11th (Dover) and third (Darlington), respectively, this year.
Ally 400 key stat
Just two of the 16 races thus far have been won by a single-digit-odds driver. The last five winners on the season were 14-1, 40-1, 12-1, 16-1 and 30-1.
