NASCAR Daytona 500 Predictions, Odds & Race Preview — Daytona International Speedway

NASCAR fanatics will be excited for one of the biggest races of the year when the drivers head to Daytona Beach for the 2025 Daytona 500 on Sunday, February 16.

William Byron is priced at a hefty +1400 to go back-to-back here, while familiar faces take up the top spots on the odds board.

Here are the Daytona 500 odds, along with free betting picks to sink your teeth into. Be sure to also take a look at our NASCAR Cup Series odds breakdown!

Odds to win 2025 Daytona 500

Driver
Ryan Blaney	+1000
Denny Hamlin	+1200
Kyle Larson	+1200
Chase Elliott	+1200
Kyle Busch	+1200
Joey Logano	+1200
Brad Keselowski	+1200
William Byron	+1400
Todd Gilliland	+1800
Josh Berry	+2000
Bubba Wallace	+2000
Chris Buescher	+2000
Tyler Reddick	+2000
Chase Briscoe	+2000
Austin Cindric	+2200
Ross Chastain	+2200
Christopher Bell	+2200
Alex Bowman	+2500
Ryan Preece	+3000
Michael McDowell	+3500

Odds as of 2-15.

Daytona 500 field

A field of 41 cars will contest the 67th Daytona 500, with four-time Indianapolis 500 winner Helio Castroneves taking advantage of NASCAR's new Open Exemption Provisional rule in order to compete for the first time.

To no surprise, Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin take up two of the Top 3 spots on the odds board. If he can pull it off, this will be Hamlin's fourth win in 11 years at Daytona Beach. Meanwhile, books don't have much faith in William Byron going back-to-back.

Daytona 500 expert picks and predictions

Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 2-15.

Daytona 500 favorites

Ryan Blaney (+1000)
He’s due and 0-for-10 in the Daytona 500. Ryan Blaney did have two Top-3 finishes on superspeedway tracks last season and five Top-8 finishes in his last eight Daytona 500 tries, including a pair of runner-up finishes in 2017 and 2020. 

Kyle Busch (+1200)
He’s 0-for-19 in the Daytona 500. However, another popular Richard Childress Racing won the “500” in his 20th start… Kyle Busch is aiming to follow Dale Earnhardt’s trend and can do so.

He had chances to win the last two years and finished sixth the year prior. On superspeedway tracks last season, Busch finished 12th, third, 26th, second, seventh, and 19th, respectively. Busch leads all drivers in laps led (342) that are winless in the Daytona 500. 

Brad Keselowski (+1200)
He’s 0-for-15 in the Daytona 500, but Brad Keselowski has had cars capable of winning the last two years. The results don’t show how much speed his No. 6 Ford actually had. He had two runner-up finishes in the final four superspeedway races last season. 

Daytona 500 sleepers

Chris Buescher (+2000)
He won the 2023 Coke Zero Sugar 400 and was fourth in this race that February. Chris Buescher also finished in the Top-10 twice on superspeedways last season.

Alex Bowman (+2500)
The trendy pick. Alex Bowman had three Top-5 finishes on superspeedways a season ago, including a runner-up in the Daytona 500. He finished fifth in the race in 2023.

If he continues his ascension of finishing higher than he did in the previous four Daytona 500s, Bowman will win. The last two seasons that Hendrick Motorsports failed to qualify a driver on the front-row in the Daytona 500, the team won the race (Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2014, Byron last year).

Ryan Preece (+3000)
Ryan Preece has a pair of Top-10 finishes in five Daytona 500 tries, and those came with JTG Daugherty Racing. He was strong in both races in 2023 before being collected in late-race crashes. Preece now moves to RFK Racing and could very well be this year’s Michael McDowell, Austin Cindric, or Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Noah Gragson (+3500)
Noah Gragson looked good in 2022 before being caught up in a late-race crash. He finished fifth in the August 2022 race. He’s won an Xfinity Series race at Daytona, as well as the 2022 NXS race at Talladega.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+4500)
Can lightning strike twice? Stenhouse won the 2023 Daytona 500 as well as the Fall playoff race at Talladega last year. He had three Top-6 finishes on superspeedways a season ago. 

Riley Herbst (+8000)
He finished 10th in the 2023 Daytona 500 and ninth in the fall Talladega playoff race. Worth a look for an upset winner.

Daytona 500 fades

Joey Logano (+1200)
Only five times has the reigning Cup Series champion also came down to Daytona the next February and actually won the Daytona 500, the last being Dale Jarrett in 2000. Its only happened twice since 1978 overall.

Joey Logano won the playoff Atlanta race, but his other 2024 superspeedway results were 32nd, 28th, 19th, 31st, and 33rd, respectively. Over his last Daytona 500 starts, he’s finished 26th, 12th, 21st, second, and 32nd. 

Denny Hamlin (+1200)
Denny Hamlin (three wins) is the only driver to repeat in this race in the past 15 years. Since 2012, he’s finished outside the Top-5 in just five of his 12 Daytona 500 tries but three in the last three years. He finished 19th last season leading to superspeedway results of 23rd, 37th, 38th, 24th, and 10th, respectively.

Chase Elliott (+1200)
His dad won the Clash and Daytona 500 in 1987. However, that was when the Clash was at Daytona. There are no similarities to take Chase Elliott’s Clash win at Bowman Gray Stadium to apply to this year’s Speedweeks. Elliott finished 14th, 15th, 15th, 36th, eighth, and 29th, respectively, on superspeedways last season and has Daytona 500 results of 37th, 14th, 33rd, 17th, 17th, second, 10th, 38th, and 14th, respectively. 

Kyle Larson (+1200)
In 47 Daytona, Talladega, and Atlanta drafting starts, Larson has two combined Top 5 finishes. He’s not finished better than seventh in the annual Daytona 500. Last season, Larson finished 11th, 32nd, 21st, 21st 37th and fourth, respectively, on superspeedways. 

William Byron (+1400)
Opened up same odds as last year’s win (+1800) but drops to this. However, odds aren’t on Byron’s side for a repeat Daytona 500 victory.

In 2020, Denny Hamlin became just the fourth driver to win back-to-back Daytona 500s (Richard Petty, Cale Yarborough, Sterling Marlin were the other three). The odds don’t look favorable for a repeat this weekend. Byron’s other Daytona 500 finishes are 23rd, 21st, 40th, 26th, 38th, and 34th, respectively. 

Tyler Reddick (+2000)
In six Daytona 500 starts, Tyler Reddick's best finish is 27th (twice). Need I say more?

Chase Briscoe (+2000)
The pole winner hasn’t won this race in 25 years. In fact, 18 of the last 23 races have seen the pole winner finish outside of the Top 10. Ty Gibbs, Carson Hocevar, Chandler Smith and Todd Gilliland were not born the last time that feat occurred. 

Austin Cindric (+2200)
The 2022 Daytona 500 winner has been decent on superspeedways. He had two Top-10 finishes on these tracks last season and knows what it takes to deliver in big moments. However, he qualified second and the last win for the second-place starter came in 1993 (Dale Jarrett). They've finished in the Top-10 just four times since 2006.

Also, the last driver to win a Duel and the Daytona 500 in the same year was Matt Kenseth in 2012. He’s the only one to do so in the last 20 years.

Bubba Wallace (+2000)
Two runner-up finishes in this race and he finished fifth last year. He’s also had a victory in the Talladega playoff race. Last season, Bubba Wallace finished fifth, fifth, 36th, sixth, 29th, and ninth, respectively, on superspeedways. However, he also has the duel winner's "jinx" working against him.

Ross Chastain (+2200)
He’s 0-for-6 in the Daytona 500 but trends say a Top-10 finish is coming his direction. He finished 10th, 25th, seventh, 40th, ninth, and 21st, respectively, in the “500.”

Daytona 500 prop pick: Christopher Bell Top 5 Finish

Christopher Bell finished third in the last two Daytona 500s, becoming the first driver to finish inside the Top 3 consecutively in the Daytona 500 without winning since Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2012-13. Earnhardt Jr. would win in 2014.

Bell had three Top 8s in six superspeedway starts as a whole in 2023 and four Top 6s in six superspeedway starts last season. 

Pick: Christopher Bell Top 5 Finish (+280 at DraftKings)

Daytona International Speedway track analysis

Daytona International Speedway is a fast 2.5-mile high-banked superspeedway that differs from all but one other track on the schedule — Talladega. These two tracks produce four of the 36 points paying races over the course of a season and look entirely different than the other 32 events.

That’s because they use a tapered spacer on the engines to restrict speeds and by the design of the aerodynamic package used on these two tracks, it forms a pack to race in. Basically, these cars are going flat-out without using the brake pedal and all are pretty much going the same speed. Drafting is key here, and that’s an art in itself. 

The good drivers on these tracks are good for a reason and can sense when the pack is getting too aggressive and sometimes find a way out of it in order to avoid the incoming carnage. However, there are times where they can’t get out in time, and end up wadded up in the infield like the rest of them. 

That’s why winning at Daytona is somewhat like winning the lottery. It’s as even of a race for every car and driver combination as you’ll get all season. 

Nothing has changed on the track since last year, so what you saw a year ago is what you’ll get this time around. 

First-time winners are rare in the Daytona 500 but have happened more lately than in most other eras of this race. Of the 66 Daytona 500 races, a driver posted his career-first NASCAR Cup Series victory only nine times; although the most recent to accomplish the feat were in two of the last four years — Austin Cindric (2022) and Michael McDowell (2021).

In fact, only two drivers have ever won the Daytona 500 in their first appearance. Those were Lee Petty (1959 inaugural race) and Trevor Bayne (2011). However, eight of the last 10 Daytona 500s were won by drivers getting their first Daytona 500 win. 

Daytona 500 trends

• None of the last 16 points-paying Daytona races were won by a former series champion.
• The Daytona 500 winner started 10th or worse in six of the last seven races.
• A Chevrolet driver has not led the most laps in the Daytona 500 since 2015 (Jeff Gordon). Ford drivers have led 57% of the laps race at Daytona in the Next Gen car. 
• The eventual winner didn’t lead for the first time until Lap 157 or later in seven of the last eight Daytona 500s.
• Only once has a stage winner in the Daytona 500 gone on to win the race (Denny Hamlin in 2020 after winning Stage 2).
• The leader at halfway has only gone on to win the Daytona 500 twice since 1992: Denny Hamlin in 2016 and 2020.
• Just six Daytona 500s have been won in a backup car: 1969 (LeRoy Yarborough), 1983 (Cale Yarborough), 1992 (Davey Allison), 2009 (Matt Kenseth), 2018 (Austin Dillon), and 2024 (William Byron). 

Daytona 500 info

Previous Daytona 500 winners

Denny Hamlin has won three of the past 10 Daytona 500s. 

How to make Daytona 500 picks

NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets. 

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