NASCAR's season of parity continues with a great divider: the season's first road course.
As the favorites look to re-assert themselves in the Winner's Circle, it's shaping up very much to be two favorites and the field for this weekend's stop at Circuit of the Americas.
Get the NASCAR betting low-down with our EchoPark Automotive Texas Grand Prix picks and predictions, getting underway at 3:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, March 27.
You can also check out the full EchoPark Automotive Texas Grand Prix odds breakdown.
EchoPark Automotive Texas Grand Prix best bets
Picks made on 3/23/22 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick above to jump to the full analysis.
EchoPark Automotive Texas Grand Prix favorites
Chase Elliott (+250) *BEST BET
He’s won six of the last 11 road course races, including this very one a year ago. He also had four Top-2 finishes in his last six road course starts last season — and that should’ve been Top 2s in all if things went properly.
Kyle Larson (+300)
He won in Sonoma, Watkins Glen, and the ROVAL last year and even should have won in COTA, but finished second with rain ending the race short of the scheduled distance. Larson also should have had a Top 3 in Road America and was third in Indy in what should have been a win with the fastest car.
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EchoPark Automotive Texas Grand Prix long-shot picks
Tyler Reddick (+3,000) *BEST BET
The inaugural pole winner should be a factor this weekend. He finished fourth in this very race last year and has been vastly improved this season overall, finishing in the Top 7 in two of the last three weeks while running up front before facing issues last Sunday. He also had a Top-3 car in the last road course on the Charlotte ROVAL last fall, so combine all factors and you get a nice sleeper.
A.J. Allmendinger (+1,600)
He won Indy and was fifth here a year ago.
Ross Chastain (+2,500)
He spent a lot of time figuring out road courses last season and it paid off. He was fourth here a year ago. Chastain had three Top-7 finishes in his last six road course starts through 2021. Also, he has three straight Top-3 finishes on the season, including two straight runner-ups.
EchoPark Automotive Texas Grand Prix fades
Brad Keselowski (+10,000)
He’s not been his best on road courses, including 19th here last year. Last season, Keselowski was fifth on the Daytona ROVAL but 19th, 15th, 13th, 35th 24th and 20th, respectively, everywhere else.
Kevin Harvick (+7,000)
Harvick had no Top-5 finishes in seven road course appearances in 2021, including four of his last six results being 22nd or worse. He was 37th in this race.
EchoPark Automotive Texas Grand Prix matchup pick
Denny Hamlin (-105) vs. Joey Logano (+105)
Hamlin has no Top-10 finishes in five races run this year. Logano, has three Top 10s in the last four weeks, as well as three Top-4 finishes in seven road course starts last season, including third in this race a year ago.
PICK: Logano (+105)
EchoPark Automotive Texas Grand Prix preview
You’re kind of stuck here in terms of who to pick this week. It’s either the Hendrick Motorsports duo of Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson, or the field. Trends say lean towards the HMS teammates — but the season says otherwise.
On the year, we’ve seen parity thus far with this new Next Gen race car. 28/1 Austin Cindric won the Daytona 500. 18/1 Alex Bowman won in Vegas while 50/1 Chase Briscoe was victorious in Phoenix and William Byron (12/1) last Sunday in Atlanta. Larson’s 4/1 win in Fontana was the only one by prohibitive favorite.
This will all be put to the test on Sunday in COTA. Sunday marks the first road course race of the season. If you base stats/trends off of the past few years, this would be Hendrick Motorsports’ to lose. They went 1-2 here last year and have combined to win nine of the last 11 road course races in general.
Also, HMS has won three of the five races run this season and if you go back to a year ago, eight of the last 10 overall.
They all say that this new car will greatly improve road course racing because it has an emphasis on left and right hand turns. It changes everything. So, does that change HMS’ dominance?
They went 1-2 in COTA, 1-2 in Sonoma, 1-2 in Watkins Glen and 3-4 in Indy just last year. Elliott has won six of the last 11 road course races in general with late-race bad luck accounting for several non-victories. Larson won three of the seven road course races himself last season.
Does the Next Gen car take away their past advantages though?
Three of the four HMS drivers have won this season, all in the last four weeks, but the one who hasn’t is leading the standings. Elliott, has no wins and no Top-5 finishes but sits on top of the points after five races. With his road course prowess, he’s a favorite, but on the season, do you trust him yet?
Larson has three Top 2s, but when he’s not vying for a win, he’s finished outside the Top 30. Byron has three finishes of 18th or worse while Bowman has one Top 5 himself (a win).
So, the door is certainly open if you want to shy away from past trends and look more in terms of how this season has shaped up. However, this season has also favored HMS in certain ways. That’s why this is difficult.
Joe Gibbs Racing and HMS have combined to win 11 of the last 12 road course races. Throw in Furniture Row Racing (Martin Truex Jr.) who was aligned with JGR, these three teams have won 14 of the last 16 road course races.
The only ones they didn’t win were when Ryan Blaney (Team Penske) was victorious in 2018 on the Charlotte ROVAL after Truex crashed in the final turn on the final lap, as well as AJ Allmendinger stealing at Indy last August when Denny Hamlin was spun while leading coming to the white flag. Otherwise, it would be 16 straight.
The thing is, Joe Gibbs Racing hasn’t won in any of the last 11 races. They’re reeling right now. Can they turn it around?
EchoPark Automotive Texas Grand Prix live betting trend to watch
In the five races run this season, the first four saw the driver who led the most laps not end up celebrating in Victory Lane in the end. Chase Elliott led 67 of 201 laps in the season-opening Daytona 500 but finished 10th.
A week later, Tyler Reddick led 90 of 200 laps in Fontana but was 24th. In Vegas, Ross Chastain led 83 of 274 laps but was third while Ryan Blaney led 143 of 312 laps in Phoenix in his fourth-place run. Last week in Atlanta though, it all changed with William Byron, who led 111 of 325 laps in victory. Still, the one who’s dominating early may not win late.
