Another week, another NASCAR odds board with Kyle Larson posted up top.
The 2021 Cup champ, and current NASCAR Cup Series odds favorite, Larson's a former Dover winner with strong overall results on this track, and figures to be hungry after a dismal finish at Talladega. Does he have what it takes to snag his third win this month at the Wurth 400 on Sunday, April 30?
With several of the circuit's best drivers close enough to breathe fumes, let's break down the Wurth 400 odds, and dig into our betting picks for Sunday's race!
Odds to win 2023 Wurth 400
| Driver | Odds to win |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +500 |
| William Byron | +550 |
| Chase Elliott | +650 |
| Denny Hamlin | +900 |
| Christopher Bell | +900 |
| Kevin Harvick | +1,100 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1,300 |
| Ross Chastain | +1,400 |
| Alex Bowman | +1,600 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1,700 |
| Kyle Busch | +1,800 |
| Ryan Blaney | +2,200 |
| Joey Logano | +2,200 |
| Chris Buescher | +3,500 |
| Chase Briscoe | +3,500 |
| Bubba Wallace | +3,500 |
| Brad Keselowski | +3,500 |
| Ty Gibbs | +4,500 |
| Daniel Suarez | +4,500 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +6,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 25, 2023.
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Wurth 400 field
Kyle Larson finds himself in pole position yet again on the odds board, priced at a confident +500 for the Wurth 400. Larson won Dover's fall race back in 2019, with finishes of second in 2021 and sixth last year. Despite a predictably disappointing superspeedway finish at Talladega last weekend, he'll be back on more comfortable territory and has two wins this month already.
William Byron finds himself a close second at +550, despite being on a bit of a slump with no Top-5 finishes (and just one in the Top 10) this month, after back-to-back wins in early March.
Third on a tightly-packed top of the board, at +650, is Chase Elliott, who has finishes of 10th and 12th since returning from a leg injury that sidelined him for five races. He won here last year, his second victory at Dover.
Overall, the field is one of haves and have-nots, less linear in distribution than a typical odds board, with five clear favorites available at +900 or better, and just four drivers bridging the +1,600 to +3,500 gap between the top contenders and longshots.
Wurth 400 picks and predictions
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Wurth 400 favorites
Kyle Larson (+500)
Just look at what he did at this track with Ganassi (three straight Top 3s), then see a runner-up in 2021 (263 laps led), and sixth last year (19 laps led) with Hendrick Motorsports on the Monster Mile. He also has 11 top 10s in his last 13 starts there, including seven in the Top 5.
Furthermore, HMS went 1-2-3-4 in 2021 and 1-5-6 last year. They’ve also won all three races on tracks 1-mile or less this season, with William Byron winning in Phoenix and Larson at Richmond and Martinsville. HMS also led 94 of 400 laps in their win a year ago while leading 382 of 400 laps (95.5%) in ’21.
William Byron (+550)
He’s finished fourth in two of his last three Dover starts and has been stout on short tracks this season as well.
Chase Elliott (+650)
He’s scored five Top-5 finishes in his last seven Dover starts, including a win last year.
Wurth 400 sleepers
Denny Hamlin (+900)
Hard to ignore here. Hamlin, has five Top-7 finishes in his last eight Dover starts, including a runner-up in 2018 and a victory in 2020. If not for multiple issues while running up front last year, Hamlin likely would have been a key player for the win. He led 67 laps in 2022, two in 2021, 115 laps in Race 1 in 2020, and 218 laps in 2019.
Martin Truex Jr. (+1,400)
The speed is there. Truex has a win in the spring race of 2019 and three straight runner-ups to follow before being 19th in 2021. He regained strength last year, scoring a 12th-place finish.
The thing is, he led five laps and was battling with Ross Chastain for third on the final lap before contact sent Truex to a finish outside the Top 10. He was fifth and fourth respectively in both stages. Since 2014, he has 12 Top-10 finishes (16 starts) including eight Top-4 finishes in his last 11 tries.
Ty Gibbs (+4,500)
He was fifth and third, respectively, in his pair of Xfinity Series starts and entering with some momentum. This car led 103 laps a year ago…
Wurth 400 fades
Joey Logano (+2,200)
He had three straight Top-8 finishes at Dover, including five in his last six starts, prior to being 29th a year ago. Logano has also struggled on short tracks this season.
Overall, Ford’s been to victory lane just twice in the last 21 Dover races, and a year ago, Team Penske finished 26th, 29th, and 36th.
Ryan Blaney (+2,200)
Zero Top 5s and just two Top-10 finishes in 12 career Dover starts isn’t ideal. His last seven Dover starts have seen him finish 12th or worse.
Wurth 400 prop pick: Suarez vs. Keseloski
Suarez has six Top 11s in 10 starts on the Monster Mile in Cup competition. In Xfinity, he had five Top-10s in seven starts, including a win in 2016. In a pair of Truck Series starts, Suarez finished second in both. To say this track is one of his best is an understatement. That’s 18 career national touring division starts at Dover, with 13 Top 11s including five in the Top 3.
Keselowski has no Top-5 finishes in his last 10 Dover tries, to go along with just one in his last 14 overall there.
Pick: Suarez (-110 at DraftKings)
More Covers NASCAR content
Dover International Speedway track analysis
Nothing changed between Dover last year and Dover this year. The only difference in the car is that more downforce has been taken off, which will make the cars slide around even more. With a concrete track, tires will play a key role because with that lesser amount of downforce, sliding around more will lead to more tire wear.
Who can counter that the best?
Hendrick Motorsports was dominant in the old car (2021) with the Next Gen car (2022-present) and with this new downforce package (two wins in three short track races this season). The best question is, can anyone stop them?
The math says no. That’s why you go with a Hendrick Motorsports vs. Joe Gibbs Racing pack this weekend and fade the field.
Wurth 400 trends
- The pole winner has won 13 times at Dover. But, what’s odd is, there hasn’t been a pole winner on the Monster Mile though since 2011.
- Three of the last six Dover winners have come from a starting spot of Row 7 or worse. However, the second-place starting spot has won almost half (4) of the last nine races there.
- If you go back to 2016, we’ve had 11 straight races at Dover where someone led at least 100 laps.
