76ers vs Celtics Game 5 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Harden Spreads the Brotherly Love

The Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics are now in a best-of-three showdown with their Eastern Conference semifinal locked at 2-2 heading back to Beantown for Game 5 on Tuesday.

Philadelphia evened the series with a thrilling overtime win at home in Game 4 and NBA odds have installed Boston as a bounce-back favorite tonight, with the spread climbing to 7.5 points. So far in the NBA playoffs, teams coming off a loss and playing on their own floor are 21-13 SU and 20-13-1 ATS (60%).

I break down the point spread and Over/Under total for Game 5 and give my best NBA betting picks for 76ers at Celtics on May 9.

76ers vs Celtics Game 5 best odds

76ers vs Celtics Game 5 picks and predictions

James Harden remains the X-factor for Philadelphia, with a pair of 40-plus efforts lifting the 76ers to their two victories in this series. But in between those buckets, Harden remains the catalyst for the other Sixers’ scorers.

The veteran point guard has dished out a total of 20 assists the past two games and his player projections for Game 5 range between 8.8 and 10.3 with my number sitting closer to 10 dimes with 9.7 assists from the Beard in Boston tonight.

That would be more than enough helpers to get past a modest assist prop of 7.5 (Over -145) at some books, while other shops hit the board with an Over/Under of 8.5 (Under -155).

After making almost 70% of his shots in Game 4, including 6-for-9 from long range, Boston can’t afford Harden to get comfortable again Tuesday. The Celtics don’t have an answer to Joel Embiid inside but can pick their poison on the perimeter.

Expect Boston to get inside Harden’s shorts tonight, go over screens, and keep close tabs on the 76ers sharp-shooting guard. The Celtics will want to force the ball out of his hands, which leaves Harden as a distributor.

Harden had assist totals of only six and four in the first two games in Boston, but was the go-to-guy with Embiid out in Game 1 (shot 30 times) and then played limited minutes in Game 2’s blowout loss. He averaged close to 11 assists during the regular season and is distributing 8.1 an outing in the playoffs — a number skewed by the opening two games of this series.

You can lay the extra vig on the Over for the low assist total of 7.5 at some shops or get plus-money on Over 8.5 with more risk. 

My best bet: James Harden Over 7.5 assists (-145)

76ers vs Celtics Game 5 same-game parlay

James Harden Over 7.5 Assists (-135)

Over 213.5 (-115)

Marcus Smart 2+ Steals (+140)

+525 at DraftKings

The Celtics will stick to Harden like glue, forcing him to be more of a distributor than a scorer and Marcus Smart will likely get plenty of facetime with the Beard. Smart’s projections sit north of 1.5 steals and the plus money on this prop gives the SGP a kick in the pants. I also like the Over 213.5 considering an uptick in tempo and the 3-point prowess of both teams.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

76ers vs Celtics Game 5 spread and Over/Under analysis

Boston battled hard in Game 4, clawing itself out of a 16-point hole and forcing an added frame only to fall 116-115 in overtime. Shortly after that result, oddsmakers installed the Celtics between -7 and -7.5 opening favorites for Game 5 back in Boston.

As of Tuesday morning, market consensus is Celtics -7.5 with Covers Consensus showing 52% of picks laying the points with the host side.

While Boston finished with the best net rating at home in the Eastern Conference, it’s been anything but invincible inside the TD Garden. The Celtics dropped Game 1 to Philadelphia at home and lost to Atlanta in front of the Beantown faithful in the first round of the playoffs.

The Sixers are hoping star power travels after riding their top talents to the Game 4 victory. Big man Embiid went for 34 points against an undersized Celtics front court and Harden dropped in 42 points after going MIA for two games following a huge Game 1 effort, in which he scored 45 points with Embiid out.

Not having the two best players on the floor is a rarity for the Celtics, whose combo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown is often enough to get Boston to the finish line. However, that pair posted only 47 combined points in Game 4, shooting a collective 19-for-36 from the field with Tatum specifically struggling to find his form (9-for-20, 1-for-9 from 3-point range).

The total for Game 5 opened around the same numbers as previous games, hitting the board at 214.5. That number has since slimmed to 213 points, with some books serving 213.5 as of Tuesday morning.

Sunday’s Game 4 closed with a total of 214 points which was the exact sum of scoring in regulation between Boston and Philadelphia, leaving the overtime frame to push the final score Over that total. Game 3 saw a final tally of 216 go past a closing Over/Under of 214.

Despite the Over cashing in both games in Philadelphia, those contests were played at an extremely slow pace rating of 90.77. The two games in Boston (1-1 O/U) rolled out a slightly quicker tempo at 93.0.

The Celtics’ high-volume approach to 3-pointers was matched by the Sixers’ solid shooting from beyond the arc the past two games, with Embiid’s dominance inside providing plenty of space for perimeter players to take and make 3-pointers. The Sixers are the top 3-point shooting team in the league at 38.7% and that clip doesn’t dip much when the team hits the road (38.3%).

76ers vs Celtics betting trend to know

While favorites are 41-18 SU and 35-23-1 ATS (60%) overall in the NBA Playoffs, bigger favorites of -6 or higher are just 14-12 ATS (54%) so far this postseason. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Celtics.

76ers vs Celtics Game 5 game info

76ers vs Celtics Game 5 key injuries

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