76ers vs Heat Game 1 Picks and Predictions: The Beard Turns Back the Clock in Embiid's Absence

After a pair of thrilling games yesterday, the NBA playoffs resume in the Eastern Conference on Monday, May 2 with an intriguing clash between the wounded Philadelphia 76ers and the relentless Miami Heat.

Our NBA betting picks and predictions try to answer the most important question of Game 1 and possibly beyond: can James Harden step up without Joel Embiid?

76ers vs Heat odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The lines have seen major movement for Game 1 of 76ers vs. Heat after Miami opened with a 4-point edge that has climbed -7.5 following news of Embiid’s injury. The total has seen a rise from as low as 207.5 to 208.5 by the time of this writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

76ers vs Heat predictions

• Prediction: 76ers +7.5 (-111)
• Prediction: Over 208.5 (-111)
• Best bet: Harden Over 25.5 pts (+110)

Predictions made on 5/1/2022 at 9:05 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

76ers vs Heat game info

• Location: FTX Arena, Miami, FL
• Date: Monday, May 2, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT

76ers vs Heat series odds

76ers: +270.
Heat: -350.

76ers vs Heat betting preview

Key injuries

76ers: Joel Embiid C (Out).
Heat: Kyle Lowry PG (Out), Jimmy Butler PF (Questionable), PJ Tucker SF (Questionable), Max Strus PG (Questionable), Tyler Herro SG (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

76ers are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games playing on three or more days rest. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Heat.

76ers vs Heat picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The news that Joel Embiid suffered a concussion and an orbital fracture in Philadelphia's close-out game against the Toronto Raptors was utterly deflating. The Harden and Embiid pick and roll has been the single deadliest play in the NBA since the trade deadline and watching Erik Spoelstra and the Miami Heat try to solve that puzzle promised to be one of the most intriguing games-within-the-game of the second round.

All that will have to wait with Embiid out for at least the first two games. Instead, a new storyline emerges. Can James Harden, once the greatest isolation scorer in the NBA, turn back the clock and lift the 76ers to an unexpected victory in Game 1?

Further complicating things, the Heat released an injury update on Sunday that left a whopping six players questionable for Monday, including Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and PJ Tucker. Given that Miami last played on Tuesday, I’d expect most of that group to suit up, but they are certainly without Kyle Lowry, who continues to miss time with his troubling hamstring injury.

Many are billing this as a walkover for the Heat. Ultimately, that all comes back to the play of Harden. What does this 76ers team even look like without Embiid? A cursory glance does not appear promising: the Sixers are a staggering -11.6 when Harden is on the court and Embiid is off per Cleaning the Glass. But the sample is minuscule, and mostly includes a healthy dose of DeAndre Jordan. The 76ers' hope might be that the team has a +45.9 in 35 playoff possessions with Harden, Green, Harris, Maxey, and Reed together.

Harden's usage in 21 games in Philadelphia has been 30%, a far cry from his peak Houston Rockets number of 43.9% and still a significant decline from his stint in Brooklyn, which was around 34%. While that Houston level is gone forever, the Sixers are going to need Harden to threaten 35% usage with Embiid out to have a chance. 

What about outside of Harden? Obviously, Maxey must add to his already outstanding playoff resume and Tobias Harris will need to abuse mismatches inside. They’ll have some success. But the most glaring problem is the quality of Embiid’s immediate replacements, as the 76ers backup center rotation is the worst of any of the contending teams. If Jordan gets dusted off to play real minutes, the Heat are going to eviscerate him in space. He simply has no mobility left.

With so many players questionable, the Heat are difficult to evaluate. Butler is dealing with some knee problems, but his average stat line against Atlanta — 30.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists on 54.3% shooting — was outrageous stuff. The Heat are the best switching defense in the NBA outside of Boston, and they force opposing teams to take threes while denying the rim, just like the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks. Miami is one of the most connected defenses in the NBA, and its ability to absolutely throttle Atlanta in Round 1 was impressive. 

Without Embiid, the Heat will emphasize playing inside out. But they’re not particularly well-suited to do so unless Bam Adebayo steps up his offense, which he seemed disinclined to do with a similar matchup advantage against Atlanta. 

A 7.5-point spread is a bit steep given all of the Heat’s lineup uncertainty, and the 76ers are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games playing on three or more days' rest. A well-rested Harden is one that can turn back the clock, at least for one night, and help the 76ers cover in Game 1.

Prediction: 76ers +7.5 (-111 Betway)

Over/Under analysis

All five of Miami’s games against the Hawks in the first round hit the Under, so a good starting point is to consider how similar a Harden-led Sixers offense will be to a Trae-led Hawks one.

They’re both heliocentric, pick-and-roll-heavy offenses. Both players rely on a fairly difficult diet of 3-point shots paired with breaking the paint and creating corner threes. Harden’s points per shot attempt and assist rate are both 94th percentile among point guards, marks that are only slightly below Young’s on both counts per Cleaning the Glass. But there is a key difference.

Harden is being fouled at a career-best rate of 22.8% of his possessions as a Sixer, so he’s making up for what he’s lost as a finisher by taking his foul-baiting technique to new highs. That might not be aesthetically pleasing, but it is damn impressive given his physical decline.

Then there’s Trae, who dropped from a foul-drawing rate of 14.5% last year all the way to 9.1% this year under the new rules. This is the definitive difference in how they play. When drawing fouls became more difficult, Trae leaned into other aspects of his game. Harden, faced with the same problem, just got better at drawing fouls.

Heat players won’t be inclined to be as physical and handsy with Harden because they'll foul themselves into oblivion. That extra breathing space means Harden will be able to break the paint, find open shooters, and keep the offense running to a degree Young was unable to achieve. Pace also favors the Over, as both teams are Top 5 in transition frequency and the 76ers might play even faster without Embiid available. 

Prediction: Over 208.5 (-111 Betway)

Best bet

By now, it should be clear that I’m bullish on Harden’s ability to score in this series, particularly in Game 1 with no Kyle Lowry to dog his dribble 94 feet.

It’s all predicated on his usage seeing an expected uptick in Embiid’s absence paired with his all-time foul-drawing ability. It wasn’t long ago that getting value on a point total this low for Harden would have seemed like madness, and I like him to hit this prop tonight.

Pick: Harden Over 25.5 Points (+110 Caesars)

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