With spurned MVP contender Joel Embiid back in the lineup for the Philadelphia 76ers, can bettors put any weight into the first two games of this conference semifinal series against the Miami Heat?
When Embiid was sidelined with a facial injury in the opening games in South Beach, Miami picked apart the Philadelphia defense while the Sixers struggled to score. With Embiid in the lineup, Philly has been a different beast on both ends and tied this series 2-2 with Game 5 coming back to Miami tonight.
Here are our free NBA betting picks and predictions for 76ers vs. Heat on May 10.
76ers vs Heat odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Miami opened as a 4-point home favorite and dipped to -3 before coming back to -3.5. The total hit the board at 210 points and has sunk to 209.5 as of Tuesday morning.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
76ers vs Heat predictions
Predictions made on 5/10/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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76ers vs Heat game info
• Location: FTX Arena, Miami, FL
• Date: Tuesday, May 10, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
76ers vs Heat series odds
76ers: +125
Heat: -150
76ers vs Heat betting preview
Key injuries
76ers: Isaiah Joe G (Questionable).
Heat: Kyle Lowry G (Out), Dewayne Dedmon C (Questionable), P.J. Tucker F (Questionable), Caleb Martin G (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 7-3 in the 76ers' last 10 games as underdogs. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Heat.
76ers vs Heat picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
To answer the question above — do we forget about Games 1 and 2 when capping Game 5 — the answer is a soft “yes”. Embiid has injected the Sixers with life and given them an edge inside that Miami can’t counter.
Embiid is getting back into a rhythm offensively and getting used to playing with the protective mask, but it’s his presence on defense that has been the greatest game changer in this series. Having the 7-footer protecting the paint has allowed the 76ers' perimeter defense to tighten up and take away the long-range looks Miami was making in the opening two games, knowing they can cheat up with Embiid behind them.
The Heat watched their offensive efforts nosedive from an advanced rating of 119.7 in the first two games to just 100.5 in the previous two outings. Some of that was the switch in venue, but Embiid was the main catalyst, anchoring a 76ers defense that was grasping for straws without their star center.
Offensively, the ceiling is very high for the Sixers and their fourth-quarter efforts in Game 3 sent shivers down the spines of every other team in the East — not just Miami.
James Harden showed flashes of his MVP-calibre brilliance, hitting back-breaking 3-pointers, while Embiid decimated the Heat’s interior. Toss in big buckets from Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey, and Philadelphia closed out that game with a 31-14 4Q slap in the face that sets the tone for Game 5.
When those standouts are all clicking, Philadelphia can beat down any team in the NBA. The Sixers just shredded one of the best defenses in the league and need to steal a game in South Beach to win this series. Why not tonight?
Prediction: 76ers +3.5 (-110 at Bet365)
Over/Under analysis
I’ve been betting Overs for this series almost every game (or at least team totals Overs), which has been hit and miss — just like the 3-point shooting.
Long-range touch hasn’t traveled well in this conference semifinal, with Philadelphia boasting a 14-for-64 count from distance in the first two games and Miami making only 14 of 65 attempts from beyond the arc in Philly. These are two of the better outside shooting teams on the year (Miami 1st, Philly 4th) and I expect that trend to level out and have both teams connect on triples in Game 5.
Embiid is like gravity in the paint, sucking in defenders and creating space for shooters, while the Heat’s perimeter rotation could do for less limping Kyle Lowry and more Duncan Robinson (who has played just 55 seconds in this series). Both teams continue to toss up triples and even if they make just 33% of those shots, Over bettors get 65 total points pumped out from beyond the arc.
The Sixers offense plays at a quicker pace with Embiid guarding the basket. Miami was able to score at will in the first two games without him inside, forcing Philadelphia to start most possessions flat-footed from the inbounds, accounting for only 25 fastbreak points. In the past two games, the 76ers have turned it on in transition and totaled 37 points off the fastbreak.
Prediction: Over 209.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Best bet
With Embiid back, Harden happy, Maxey running, and Danny Green awake from outside (2-for-14 in Miami, 10-for-13 in Philly), this 76ers attack is a pain in the ass — even for a team like Miami that hangs its hat on defense.
Embiid has a herculean advantage in the post versus a smaller Heat frontcourt, either getting good looks or drawing fouls. Maxey and Harden can push the pace in transition, attacking the rim or getting to the foul line. And when the shot clock ticks down, Harden can go one-on-one for the score or hit Green on the wing for a triple.
Since Harden arrived in late February, this current version of the 76ers haven’t had many games together and peaked in only a handful of spots. With Embiid making everything better, this Philly squad is coming together at the perfect time and has far too many options not to top a modest team total in Game 5.
Pick: 76ers team total Over 103.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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