76ers vs Nets Game 4 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Harris Puts Nets on Edge

The Philadelphia 76ers will try to sweep the Brooklyn Nets when they clash at Barclay's Center on Saturday afternoon.

The No. 3-seeded Sixers will have to get it done without MVP favorite Joel Embiid, who is sidelined by a knee sprain. Even without Embiid, the Sixers are road favorites in this game with NBA betting lines opening with them as 2-point chalk.

Can Philly knock Brooklyn out of the playoffs or is there a better angle to consider on the odds board? I let you know with my best free 76ers vs. Nets NBA picks and predictions for April 22.

76ers vs Nets Game 4 best odds

76ers vs Nets Game 4 picks and predictions

The absence of Embiid is obviously baked into this line, and with a star that has missed as much time as he has over the last few years, oddsmakers have a pretty accurate idea of how much value he brings to a spread. 

That said, while those spreads and totals are typically appropriately adjusted, it's much tougher for books to accurately account for the ripple effect on other players in the lineup.

Although forward Tobias Harris has seen the O/U on his points total tick up from 13.5 in the first three games to 16.5 today, that still doesn't look high enough given his regular season production.

In 60 games alongside Embiid in the lineup, Harris averaged 13.7 points and 10.6 field goal attempts per game. However, in 14 games without Embiid, those numbers surged to 15.1 FGA and 18.8 ppg. One of those contests came against the Nets on Nov. 22, when he went 10-21 from the field for 24 points.

My best bet: Tobias Harris Over 16.5 points (-120)

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76ers vs Nets Game 4 spread analysis

After getting clobbered by 20 points in the first game of the series and losing by 12 points in Game 2, the Nets kept things close in Game 3 at home.

But it still ended with the same result as the 76ers rallied to win in the fourth quarter despite the ejection of James Harden and a quiet performance from a hobbled Embiid.

With the Sixers up 3-0 in the series, it makes sense to rest Embiid in this spot. With the Nets in desperation mode and playing at home against a Sixers team missing its best player, there's reason to like the Nets as dogs here. 

That said, it's worth mentioning that Philadelphia went 11-5 straight up without Embiid during the regular season. Guys like Harris, Tyrese Maxey, and Harden can all help pick up the scoring slack while Brooklyn's offense isn't built to exploit the absence of Embiid in the middle.

In fact, the Nets are just 29th in the league in frequency of attacking the rim, per ShotQualityBets. Their perimeter shooting has also dropped off since trading away Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, and burying Joe Harris and Seth Curry on the bench. 

76ers vs Nets Game 4 Over/Under analysis

We've seen an extremely slow pace between these teams so far this round, resulting in each of the last two games having fewer than 200 points. However, while Embiid led the league with 33.1 ppg, the team actually scores more without him. 

In 60 regular season games with their All-NBA big man, the 76ers averaged 114.5 ppg and in 16 games without him, that number jumped up to 118.4 ppg. 

The Sixers tend to play much faster without Embiid to slow things down in the half-court, with Maxey and Harden pushing the tempo.

The Nets have struggled to score since the trade deadline, ranking dead-last in the league with a 45.2 field goal percentage. But this total still looks too low at 208.5.

76ers vs Nets betting trend to know

The Nets are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Nets.

76ers vs Nets Game 4 game info

76ers vs Nets Game 4 key injuries

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