Bucks vs Celtics Game 1 Picks and Predictions: Boston's Defense Will Give Milwaukee Trouble

The second round of the NBA Playoffs kicks off Sunday, May 1 as Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks head east to do battle with Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics.

Our free NBA picks and predictions for Game 1 of Bucks vs. Celtics indicates that while Milwaukee is the defending champs, this surging Boston squad is going to give them all that they can handle.

Bucks vs Celtics odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The spread for Bucks vs. Celtics Game 1 has stayed steady with the Celtics getting a -4.5 point edge. The total has seen more movement, opening as high as 218.5 and falling as far as 216.5 at some books.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Bucks vs Celtics predictions

• Prediction: Celtics -4.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 216.5 (-111)
• Best bet: Under 216.5 (-111)

Predictions made on 4/30/2022 at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Bucks vs Celtics game info

• Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
• Date: Sunday, May 1, 2022
• Tip-off: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

Bucks vs Celtics series odds

Bucks: +170
Celtics: -200

Bucks vs Celtics betting preview

Key injuries

Bucks: Khris Middleton SG (Out), George Hill PG (Out).
Celtics: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-0 in Bucks’ last 5 overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Celtics.

Bucks vs Celtics picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Unless you’re still inclined to say “what if” about the Brooklyn Nets, this is the first clash of two legitimate NBA championship contenders of the playoffs. Boston was certainly on the shortlist before they squared off against Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, but by sweeping them out of the postseason, they’ve proven that they are deserving of legit favorite status.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee is the defending champs, and the Bucks have arguably the best player in the world in Giannis Antetokounmpo, even if their five-game series against the Chicago Bulls was not terribly impressive.

The story of this game is Khris Middleton’s absence. A grade 2 MCL sprain rules him out for the entire series and presents numerous problems for the Bucks. It puts a much greater weight on Giannis as a primary initiator, shifts more pick and roll responsibility to Jrue Holiday, and likely means Milwaukee returns to the supersized lineup of Giannis, Bobby Portis, and Brook Lopez that they trotted out against the Bulls.

It also removes the most obvious answer to Milwaukee’s most pressing question: Who guards Jayson Tatum?

Tatum has been the best player in the playoffs so far, and losing Middleton means one of Jrue, Wes Mathews, or even Giannis must serve as his primary defender. If the Bucks go big, Giannis is the choice, but that poses further issues because Antetokounmpo can’t get through screens. Tatum will be baited into a lot of pull-ups early on, and if he hits them at the rate he has been, the Bucks will lose.

But without Middleton, going big might be the Bucks' only shot. The trio of Giannis, Brook Lopez, and Bobby Portis was +24 in 30 minutes against Chicago. Without Middleton, dominating the boards is one of the few ways Milwaukee has to tip the balance in their favor. On the other end, Giannis is going to be guarded by just about everyone on Boston, just like they swarmed Kevin Durant in the first round. While his frame and build make him less likely to wilt to the degree that Durant did, it is still going to be hell.

Once upon a time, Al Horford was the best one on one Giannis defender in the NBA, and though Giannis has leveled up since then, Boston can tilt the floor against Giannis in a way few defenses can. Robert Williams as the backside defender who is also comfortable switching on the perimeter will gum up the works on many of Milwaukee's preferred attacks.

A lot of will be asked of Jrue Holiday on offense, and it’s not clear he’s up to the task. While he had an outstanding regular season shooting the ball, in the Chicago series (just like last playoffs), Jrue’s shot deserted him. He also doesn’t have the same physical advantages against the Celtics guards that he had against the Bulls and Boston’s switching defense leaves Holiday few appealing avenues to attack.

Expect some offensive rust on Sunday as both these teams feel out exactly how they want to play each other, but with Middleton out Boston should win and cover in Game 1.

Prediction: Celtics -4.5 (-110 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

If one just looks at the statistical profiles of these two teams after the first round, it would not match the eye test. Boston’s defense is only middling (116.9 defensive rating), while Milwaukee’s is an eye-popping 95.3. But of course, the Celtics were dealing with Kevin Durant and a quality Brooklyn offense while the Bucks were beating up on a wounded Bulls squad.

Still, there’s reason to think that the Bucks’ defense will make Game 1 an ugly, low-scoring affair. The Celtics are going to experience whiplash going from the porous interior defense of the Nets to Milwaukee’s suffocating paint deterrence. While the Celtics' wings and guards were allowed to parade to the rim freely against Brooklyn, Milwaukee sells out the perimeter utterly to ensure nothing easy comes at the rim.

That might not seem threatening given the plethora of Celtics who are currently shooting a great percentage from behind the arc (Grant Williams, Payton Pritchard, Al Horford, Jayson Tatum), but look a little closer at Boston’s shot distribution and it raises some red flags. Per Cleaning the Glass, Brown is shooting just 21.1% from 3, Smart is shooting 32.3%, and Derrick White has stopped shooting altogether he’s slumping so badly.

Brown and Williams generated nearly 40% of their offense at the rim against the Nets, and Tatum and Smart also took a sizable portion of their attempts there as well. Those shots simply will not be there unless the Bucks downsize, and at least early on this series, I don’t expect them to. The Bucks will force players like Brown, White, Smart, and Theis to beat them from outside whenever possible, and lineups that were perfectly acceptable in the halfcourt against Brooklyn will not fly against Milwaukee.

This strategy is not without risk. While packing the paint and forcing lesser players to hit 3-point shots worked to perfection against a hobbled Chicago team, this Celtics team is much more comfortable hitting shots. Boston shot the 9th most threes in the NBA this season, while Chicago was dead last in threes attempted.

The Under cashed in all five games of Milwaukee’s series against Chicago in large part because the Bulls could not make Milwaukee pay from outside. While Boston will likely find ways to counter the Bucks’ aggressive defensive scheme as the series goes on, I expect it to give them problems in Game 1.

Prediction: Under 216.5 (-111 at Betway)

Best bet

As impressive as the Bucks’ defensive game plan was against Chicago, their offensive process was extremely distressing. Despite their massive positional and talent advantages, they only managed a 111.6 offensive rating, which is just 12th among all playoff teams per Cleaning the Glass.

Without Middleton’s pick-and-roll attack, the Bucks’ best players are going to be stretched beyond their capabilities on offense, and just as Milwaukee will dare Boston to beat them from the outside, the Celtics are going to dare the Bucks right back.

Jrue Holiday’s 17.5% turnover rate is among the highest in the playoffs, and he’s going to face a much stiffer defensive challenge every second he’s on ball for the Bucks.

Pick: Under 216.5 (-111 at Betway)

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