The Boston Celtics learned the hard way that the Milwaukee Bucks are definitely not the Brooklyn Nets.
Boston, which bullied much-hyped Brooklyn into submission in Round 1, was on the receiving end of a physical and pestering defense versus Milwaukee in the Round 2 opener. It managed only 89 points after averaging 113.5 against Brooklyn, setting up a tense Game 2 at TD Garden tonight.
The Celtics are marked as 4.5-point home chalk Tuesday and the Game 2 total has been notably trimmed from the previous Over/Under number, with books expecting another defensive grind.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Bucks at Celtics on May 3.
Bucks vs Celtics odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Celtics opened as 4-point home favorites and have climbed to -4.5 with early play on Boston, which is still below the closing spread of -5 for Game 1. The total hit the board at 215.5 points and dropped to as low as 214 before buyback on the Over moved it back to 215.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Bucks vs Celtics predictions
Predictions made on 5/3/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Bucks vs Celtics game info
• Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
• Date: Tuesday, May 3, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Bucks vs Celtics series odds
Bucks: -130
Celtics: +110
Bucks vs Celtics betting preview
Key injuries
Bucks: Khris Middleton G (Out), George Hill G (Out).
Celtics: Marcus Smart G (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 10-4 in Bucks’ last 14 games as underdogs. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Celtics.
Bucks vs Celtics picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
A quick glance at the Celtics’ shot chart for Game 1 paints the picture. Boston didn’t crack the Bucks' interior defense and instead settled for long-range looks, attempting 50 of its 84 total shots from beyond the arc.
The Celtics made just 18 of those 3-point attempts while the rest turned into long rebounds, which stoked the fires for Milwaukee’s transition attack. The Bucks had 28 fastbreak points in Game 1 (27 points off 18 Boston turnovers), helping pad 34 points in the paint. Those easy looks made up for an otherwise dismal shooting day from Milwaukee.
Cleaning up the offense for Game 2 will help Boston on both ends. That means not settling for outside shots and finding a way to get inside the Bucks defense to score body blows near the rim. It’s easier said than done, considering Milwaukee ranked fourth in points in the paint allowed during the regular season and checked the C’s to just 20 total PITP in Game 1.
Another factor working against Boston and that aggressive plan in Game 2 is the health of the backcourt. Two engine players — Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown — are feeling the grind of the postseason with Smart questionable due to a mixed bag of injuries and Brown entering the series nursing a tender hamstring that may have played a role in his passive 4-for-13 effort that mustered only 12 points Sunday.
Boston knows it has to be smarter with the ball and not allow the Bucks’ bullish defense to force bad decisions — either errant passes or rushed shots —by speeding them up. The Celtics will have that approach in Game 2, but that more passive and patient play doesn’t exactly scream “covering the spread.” Boston can win this matchup outright, but it feels like a closer contest than books are projecting.
Prediction: Bucks +5 (-110 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Take away the turnovers and transition-feeding shot selection in Game 1 and Boston did a solid job defending Milwaukee in the opener. When the Bucks weren’t doing layups, they missed shots in the paint, got forced into mid-range looks, and weren’t great from outside (12-for-34 from 3-point range).
In order to force Milwaukee into more halfcourt sets, the Celtics need to score the damn ball at a higher rate. The magic word coming out of every post-game presser was “patience,” which means not getting sucked into a faster pace due to the Bucks’ pressure defense. Instead, Boston needs to push back with hard on-the-ball screens as well as run off-the-ball picks to create space for ball movement.
That playbook needs time to develop so expect Boston to shoot deeper into the shot clock and perhaps even pass up open 3-point looks as they know Milwaukee wants nothing more than to keep them shooting from outside.
Game 1 boasted a pace rating of 100.5, which is on par with the tempo from the Bucks’ Round 1 series squash of Chicago but well above the Celtics’ speed from their opening-round sweep of Brooklyn (95.00 pace rating). With the C’s slowing things down and perhaps missing some motor with Smart and Brown dinged up, Game 2 will pump the breaks and is warranted of the shorter total tonight.
Prediction: Under 216 (-110 at FanDuel)
Best bet
The second half of Game 1 was more indicative of the pace of this series, watching the tempo drop like a stone from a rating of 105.0 in the opening 24 minutes to 96.0 in the final two quarters.
The Bucks and Celtics combined for 102 points in that up-tempo opening half Sunday before putting up a collective 88 points after the halftime break. Smart’s injury late in the first half played into that power outage, as he wasn’t as mobile with the shoulder stinger and bruised quad after returning to action.
With Boston’s battle cry of patience with the ball and Celtics head coach Ime Udoka upping the team’s physicality on both defense and offense (expect some head-hunting screens to send a message), the first 24 minutes of Game 2 will be a war.
Books have dropped this Game 2 total to 215.5 points from the closing total of 218.5 in the opening contest, and have backloaded the scoring with the 1H number as low as 104 points. That still feels high considering how Game 1 shook out.
Pick: First-half Under 105 (-110 at FanDuel)
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