Bucks vs Heat Game 3 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Holiday in South Beach

The Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat quarterfinal series figured to be a cakewalk for the former, but the favorites have faced some adversity so far. With the series tied 1-1, the underdog Heat will play hosts in Game 3 tonight.

Former NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo — who sat out the Bucks’ Game 2 victory — is listed as questionable for tonight with a back injury, and didn’t practice with the team on Friday. Giannis is listed in the NBA player props, but at reduced numbers in almost every category. 

Can Milwaukee take their show on the road, or will Miami grab an improbable 2-1 series lead? Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Bucks vs. Heat Game 3 on Saturday, April 22.

Bucks vs Heat Game 3 best odds

Bucks vs Heat Game 3 picks and predictions

It’s highly unlikely that Giannis Antetokounmpo will be at full strength for the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 3, if he’s able to go at all. Much like Game 2, it will be up to one of the other Bucks stars to shine on Saturday night. 

Milwaukee point guard Jrue Holiday took the baton and ran with it on Wednesday evening, tallying 24 points on 10-of-19 shooting, adding 11 assists and five rebounds.

Though the Bucks are clearly a better team when the Greek Freak is on the floor, Game 2’s 138-122 triumph was evidence that Milwaukee is arguably the most well-rounded team in the NBA, even when he’s not there. The Bucks have multiple players who are capable of stepping up and contributing more when their number is called, from Khris Middleton, to Brook Lopez, to Bobby Portis. The latter two were particularly effective against the Miami Heat in Game 2, contributing 31 and 33 points + rebounds + assists, respectively. That was well above their respective last 10 games’ average of 26 and 26.8.

Holiday helped make that possible with his effective generalship at point guard. As a result, he reached double-digit assists for the fourth straight game. NBA odds have him at -110 to go Over 8.5 assists, so they’ve adjusted to his elevated level of play in that area. Backing Holiday to get a double-double at +155 (up from +115 in Game 2, surprisingly) is also tempting, but the safer play is to bet on the 13-year veteran to go Over 31.5 points + assists + rebounds.

Holiday has averaged 41.8 PRA over his last four contests, amassing a total of 39 in Game 1, and 40 in Game 2. Whether he enjoys another successful shooting night or dishes the rock with authority, Holiday should stuff the stat sheet. 

The rebounding opportunities could be there too if Giannis is either out or limited. Holiday has been a mixed bag throughout the year when it comes to boards, but he averaged 5.1 on the campaign, and that’s about where the oddsmakers are putting it in this prop (his rebounding prop is 5.5, Over +125). 

My best bet: Holiday Over 31.5 points + assists + rebounds (-110)

Bucks vs Heat Game 3 spread analysis

The lines for this tilt have been out from as early as Wednesday night, where the Bucks were opened as low as -2.5 at some sites before quickly being bet up to Bucks -4 or -4.5. Some sites have kept it at Milwaukee -4.5, while others are offering -5 or even -5.5. More movement could be coming, depending on when Giannis’ status for Game 3 is announced. 

The fairly one-sided action on the Bucks could be a reaction to a bad line, optimism regarding Giannis — who was upgraded from doubtful to questionable ahead of Game 2 before ultimately sitting out — or a combination of both. 

I think any value on Milwaukee in this market has long since evaporated. Bettors should note that the Bucks see an average fall-off on offense of 2.2 points per game from their overall numbers to their road splits, while allowing half a point more per game on defense. The Heat, meanwhile, enjoy a +1.4-point uptick on offense, and a +0.2 one on defense when at home. 

The win/loss records reflect these stats, as the Bucks went 26-15 on the road this year, compared to 33-10 at Fiserv Forum. Their 21-18-2 ATS record as visitors was down slightly from their 24-19 ATS record as hosts. However, Miami was a fairly lousy bet this year regardless of location, going 15-25-1 ATS at home, and 16-25-1 ATS on the road. It also had a losing ATS record as an underdog.

Ultimately, this looks like a market to stay away from, but the slightly better choice might be the Heat.

Bucks vs Heat Game 3 Over/Under analysis

Over bettors have hardly had an anxious moment through two games in this series. After clearing the line of 221 for Game 1 by 26 points, the Bucks and Heat soared past the total of 216 in Game 2 by a whopping 44 points. The total is up to 220 for Saturday night after opening at many sites at 218. 

While Giannis of course makes an impact on offense, his absence also creates opportunities on the other end of the floor. Jimmy Butler didn’t take full advantage of that in Game 2, falling Under his points line of 27.5 with 25 on the night. But a return home could help, as he averages over 2.5 points per game more at Kaseya Center.

The Heat have fallen from an elite defensive team to one that’s in the middle-of-the-pack since the All-Star break, going from allowing 108.3 points per game to 113.6. The Bucks let up on defense down the stretch too, but didn’t have nearly as much to play for as Miami did. The fact they’ve allowed an average of 126 points per game at home in this series does not bode well for them on the road. 

Bucks vs Heat betting trend to know

The Over is 7-0 in the Heat’s last seven home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Heat.

Bucks vs Heat Game 3 game info

Bucks vs Heat Game 3 key injuries

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