The Charlotte Hornets have been...sorry... stung by the injury bug, missing two of their best players, Gordon Hayward and rookie superstar-in-the-making LaMelo Ball, for weeks.
And while Ball's return seems imminent, the Hornets have been a tough NBA betting sell, and are currently losing the race to stay out of the East's play-in, sitting in eighth at 30-30.
Things won't get any easier tonight as they face the safely-third-seeded Milwaukee Bucks. Let's see if the Hive can get some buzz back about them with our Bucks vs. Hornets picks and predictions for Tuesday, April 27.
Bucks vs Hornets odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonTwinSpires opened Milwaukee as 9-point chalk, and that's where the line remains at 4 p.m. ET. The Hornets are getting 56 percent of point-spread bets, while the Bucks are drawing 62 percent of spread money. The total is up 2 points to 225, with 82 percent of bets/88 percent of cash on the Over, prompting TwinSpires to say, "We're big fans of the Under here."
Check out the full line movement for this gameBucks at Hornets betting preview
Injuries
Bucks: PJ Tucker PF (Questionable), Rodions Kurucs SF (Questionable).
Hornets: Gordon Hayward SF (Out), LaMelo Ball SF (Out), Malik Monk SG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 10-4 in Bucks' last 14 games following an ATS loss. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Hornets.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
This spread is curious. Yes, the Hornets have been wildly inconsistent of late, but a nine-point spread is in line with what Milwaukee faced against league doormats like the Magic (-9) and Timberwolves (-10).
While the Hornets have been given lots of rope here, the matchup isn't amazing for them. Milwaukee is more talented at basically every juncture, and can throw ace defensive covers Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton on Terry Rozier and midseason-breakout Miles Bridges.
With Devonte' Graham now having to start and Malik Monk also shelved, the Hornets' bench becomes Chris Boucher-thin, forcing more of an onus on a starting unit that's already bluntly overmatched.
The Bucks have been an up-and-down squad since the February-March 13-1 SU stretch that boldly re-asserted them among the East's elite. You can question if perhaps Milwaukee felt less implicit urgency after reeling off that run, but the playoff picture is beginning to crystalize.
As it currently sits (and assuming no upsets), the Bucks would face a Celtics-Sixers-Nets death march to an NBA Finals berth, and after back-to-back seasons of painful playoff collapses, they'll want to ensure they're peaking at the right time, which would be right now. If they can somehow catch Philly or Brooklyn for the 2-seed, they can also benefit from facing a less-rested play-in opponent, making every win crucial.
The Bucks' last five wins have come by an average of 21.6 points, easily covering in each victory. They know how to put the boots to a lesser foe and have plenty of motivation to play their A-game tonight, so we trust them to get it done.
PREDICTION: Milwaukee -9 (-110)
Over/Under pick
This total is also curious. It's the fourth-smallest total the NBA-scoring-leading Bucks have faced this season and belies the fact that these teams combined to score 246 points a couple of weeks ago, in a game Milwaukee played without its entire starting lineup.
Yes, the Hornets have had some fairly punchless offensive efforts of late, but they can still test a Bucks defense that has lost steps from last year's league-leading form.
Milwaukee's ethos is still to deny the rim, but its perimeter D isn't as air-tight this season. The Bucks allow opponents to fire threes at the NBA's fifth-most frequent rate, and convert at a Top-10 clip. It's a scheme the Hornets are comfortable with, as they rank eighth league-wide in both 3-point percentage and frequency.
The Bucks are going to get theirs in this game, and probably best their 119.3 ppg average. They've notched up to 122 ppg over their last eight, against some fairly tough defensive competition. This total suggests Milwaukee will blow out Charlotte, with the latter struggling to score 100. Given the above, we don't see that happening.
PREDICTION: Over 222 (-110)
First quarter prop pick
The Bucks' starting lineup is a fearsome unit, so it's not terribly surprising that oddsmakers are laying Milwaukee a third of its full-game edge, 3 points, in the first quarter. At least at face value.
In perhaps an under-explored market, the Hornets are actually the NBA's best first-quarter ATS squad at 36-23-1. The Bucks win slightly against first-quarter spreads as well (32-28), but the extra weight on this 1Q margin, and Charlotte having topped 30 first-frame points four times in its past six games, makes us think that this won't be where the wheels come off.
PREDICTION: Hornets 1Q +3 (-112)
Bucks vs Hornets betting card
- Milwaukee -9 (-110)
- Over 222 (-110)
- Hornets 1Q +3 (-112)
Picks made on 4/27/2021 at 9:05 a.m. ET
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