Bucks vs Jazz Picks and Predictions: The Deer Stampede Into Salt Lake

The Milwaukee Bucks had won six in a row before losing to the Golden State Warriors on Saturday, and they’ll now look to start another streak by earning a road win over the Utah Jazz tonight. The Jazz have had guys in and out of the lineup lately, but they've still won two of their last three. 

Will Milwaukee go on the road and make a statement against Utah? You’ll want to keep reading our NBA betting picks and predictions for our best bets in what should be an exciting game between the Bucks and Jazz. 

Bucks vs Jazz odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Bucks opened as 1-point favorites in this massive Monday night matchup, but the line has since moved to 1.5 or 2 at most sportsbooks. The total, which opened at 230.5, doesn’t appear to be moving all that much at the time of this writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Bucks vs Jazz predictions

• Prediction: Bucks -2 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 230.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Allen Over 9.5 points (-106)

Predictions made on 3/14/2022 at 2:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Bucks vs Jazz game info

• Location: Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, UT
• Date: Monday, March 14, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN/TSN4

Bucks vs Jazz betting preview

Key injuries

Bucks: Lindell Wigginton G (Questionable), George Hill G (Out), DeAndre’ Bembry G (Out), Pat Connaughton G (Out).
Jazz: Rudy Gobert C (Questionable), Trent Forrest G (Questionable), Udoka Azubuike C (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Bucks are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as road favorites. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Jazz.

Bucks vs Jazz picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Not only is Milwaukee 5-1 against the spread in its last six games as a road favorite, but the team is also getting Brook Lopez back from the back injury that has sidelined him for this entire season. The Bucks have really been vulnerable on the defensive end all year — after being ninth in defensive rating last year, the team has slipped back to 13th this season — but Lopez is by far the team’s best defender at the center position. The big man will likely be on a minutes restriction in this game, but any time he gives them will make them a better basketball team. It’s also huge that he’s returning against a potent Jazz offense, as his services will be needed immediately. 

Utah has one of the best home-court advantages in basketball on a yearly basis, but it might not be enough to overcome a very talented Milwaukee team. The Jazz don’t have guys that are capable of slowing down Giannis Antetokounmpo or Khris Middleton. Giannis had only 25 points in a 12-point loss to this Utah team back in October, but Jrue Holiday and Middleton were both out for that game. That allowed the Jazz to focus strictly on slowing down the Greek Freak, without having to worry about being beaten by his supporting cast. With Holiday and Middleton, they won’t be able to overcommit to stopping the two-time MVP. Giannis and Middleton should both see one-on-one coverage rather often, which both players are capable of exploiting — especially with Royce O’Neale being Utah’s only strong wing defender. That’ll be taken to another level if Rudy Gobert, who is questionable tonight, ends up being out. Utah desperately needs his rim protection against Giannis. And for what it’s worth, the Bucks are first in the league in offensive rating over the last 10 games, while the Jazz are just 16th in defensive rating in that same span. 

While Mike Conley might be able to make life on Holiday more difficult on the offensive end than it should be for Giannis or Middleton, Holiday’s defense is the most important factor in this game. The two-way stud is going to be defending Donovan Mitchell, and he should be able to make it a frustrating night for the Jazz star. Holiday plays a physical brand of on-ball defense where he gets his chest right up into opponents. He also fights over every screen and doesn’t take plays off. At the very least, that style of play will tire Mitchell out by the end of the fourth quarter.  

It’s also worth noting that Milwaukee is 6-1 straight up and 5-1-1 ATS when coming off a loss as a road favorite. Look for the team to lock in and make up for that loss with a statement game in Salt Lake City. 

Prediction: Bucks -2 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Under is 8-5 when Milwaukee is coming off an upset road loss in which the team ended up being defeated by 10 or more points. With that in mind, combined with the trend about the team coming off a loss as a road favorite, you can expect a better defensive performance from the Bucks in Salt Lake City. And it doesn’t hurt that Lopez is now back in the lineup. Meanwhile, the Under is also 3-0 in the games Utah has played as a home underdog this season. 

For as good as both of these teams are on the offensive end, they’re also 12th and 13th in the league in defensive rating this season, respectively. That means that both are capable of going out there and getting some big stops. And the fact that these are two of the best teams in their respective conferences means this should be a hard-fought battle with playoff intensity. That usually means that there will be some defense played. 

Utah’s defense has taken a small slide in recent weeks, but the nature of this game should prevent Milwaukee from being completely lit up. This one might be a little close to going Over the number, but we expect both experienced groups to get a couple of big stops late in the fourth quarter. 

Prediction: Under 230.5 (-110)

Best bet

With Connaughton out, the Bucks need more out of shooting guard Grayson Allen. The former Duke star has been solid for Milwaukee this season, and his point total is rather low tonight. On the year, Allen is averaging 11.3 points per game and happens to be coming off three games in a row in which he has played at least 28 minutes and scored at least 10 points. The latter is all he needs to do in order to hit the Over on his point total. 

This matchup also happens to be a good one for Allen. He’ll likely spend a lot of time being defended by Mitchell, who tends to fall asleep on that end of the floor, so Allen should get some clean looks at the rim. 

Remember too, Utah was the team that drafted Allen, yet the franchise ultimately gave up on him. With that in mind, he could be out for a little revenge. Look for him to be aggressive in this spot. 

Pick: Grayson Allen Over 9.5 points (-106)

Pages related to this topic