Bulls vs Bucks Game 5 Picks and Predictions: Milwaukee Moves On To Round 2 With Big Cover

Omar wisely told us that if “you come at the king, you best not miss,” because the king doesn’t. 

The Milwaukee Bucks — reigning kings of the NBA — don’t pass on putting away opponents on the ropes, delivering knockout blows in every possible elimination scenario during their run to the NBA title last year.

This time around, Milwaukee has the Chicago Bulls wobbling and can wrap this opening round series in five games at home tonight, with bookies pegging the home side as double-digit chalk after winning the past two games by a collective 54 points.

Here are our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Bulls at Bucks on April 27.

Bulls vs Bucks odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Milwaukee hit the board as a 10-point home favorite and early money tacked on an extra two points to that spread. The total opened as big as 219.5 and has slimmed to 217.5 at some shops.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Bulls vs Bucks predictions

• Prediction: Bucks -12 (-110)
• Prediction: Undee 218 (-110)
• Best bet: Bucks 1H -7 (-110)

Predictions made on 4/27/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Bulls vs Bucks game info

• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Wednesday, April 27, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT

Bulls vs Bucks series odds

Bulls: +3,000
Bucks: -10,000

Bulls vs Bucks betting preview

Key injuries

Bulls: Alex Caruso G (Questionable), Zach LaVine G (Questionable), Matt Thomas G (Out).
Bucks: George Hill G (Questionable), Khris Middleton G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

While the Bucks are 0-2 ATS and double-digit chalk in this series, Milwaukee is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite in the playoffs since 2016. Find more NBA betting trends for Bulls vs. Bucks.

Bulls vs Bucks picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Following squashes of 24 and 30 points, and considering the potential missing pieces from Chicago’s backcourt, backing the Bucks and climbing that mountain of chalk in Game 5 doesn’t look that daunting.

The Bulls had offensive issues coming into the postseason and this matchup with Milwaukee bubbled them to the surface, with Chicago boasting an advanced offensive rating of just 88.9 in the past two contests. 

Any “get up and go” for the Bulls “just got up and went” with spark-plug guards Zach LaVine (COVID) and Alex Caruso (concussion) probably sidelined for Game 5. 

Those holes put primary ball-handling duties on Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu, who were already struggling mightily in this series. Now those youngsters go on the road to face elimination against a merciless Milwaukee squad looking to pack up Round 1. 

The Bucks are dealing with their own injuries, but you wouldn’t know it. Milwaukee is down top perimeter threat Khris Middleton, who will likely miss games in Round 2 with a knee injury. However, veteran guard Jrue Holiday has stepped up his scoring along with backcourt mate Grayson Allen, who has posted point totals of 22 and 27 in the past two games.

Milwaukee should have wrapped this series in four games if not for mental lapses in the opening two contests. But the Bucks look locked in now and a big win tonight gives them momentum — and a three-day break — before facing Boston in the conference semis. A loss tonight and a win in Game 6 on Friday would still have Milwaukee playing Game 1 at Boston on Sunday.

This spread has jumped two points since opening, so the best of the number has sailed, but when the statuses of LaVine and Caruso become official (both likely out), this line could run even higher. Grab the Bucks as low as you can now.

Prediction: Bucks -12 (-110 at PointsBet)

Over/Under analysis

With LaVine and Caruso likely out of action, the Bulls’ depth and engine stalls out. More floor time for White and Dosunmu could be dooming, considering the pair is shooting a collective 14-for-44 in the series (32%) with a total of eight turnovers in limited minutes.

This series has posted a pace rating of 99.25 in the last two contests, but without the regular guards for Chicago, speeding up could put a lot of burden on those reserves who will be logging many more minutes than usual in Game 5. 

Slowing down Chicago could be as easy as throwing two guys at DeMar DeRozan and letting Giannis Antetokounmpo match up with Nikola Vucevic, while anchoring Brook Lopez around the basket to challenge shots.

Milwaukee has come out swinging the past two games, holding leads of 13 and 19 at the halftime break. With the Bucks likely to follow that approach at home in Game 5, this one could be out of reach in the second half — leaving Milwaukee to sit its starters in prep for a Round 2 war with Boston.

All four games in this series have stayed below the total, with books slimming the Over/Under in each outing. The Game 5 total is down as low as 217.5 and that still feels like plenty of head room for Under backers.

Prediction: Under 218 (-110 at BetRivers)

Best bet

Double-digit chalk in the playoffs can be a bit scary. So far in the 2022 NBA postseason, favorites of 10 or more points are 1-2 against the spread — both of those losses pinned on the Bucks as -10 and -10.5 home faves in the first two games of this series.

Overall, double-digit playoff favorites are laying the lumber for a reason, going 36-26 ATS since 2016 (58%) — with the Bucks accounting for 10 of those contests — boasting a 7-3 ATS clip as faves of 10 or more in the postseason.

With a blowout likely in store, those laying the -12 could get a little sweaty if Milwaukee rolls out the reserves down the stretch. So, considering the Bucks’ killer instinct and strong starts, we’ll play Giannis & Co. -7 on the first half spread as they’ve held first-half leads of eight points or more in three of the four previous games.

Pick: Bucks first half -7 (-110 at bet365)

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