The Miami Heat ended their 2022 season just short of a Finals appearance, losing in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
With the team's salary cap situation not providing much breathing room, the frequent Eastern Conference contenders couldn't get too creative over the offseason and are largely returning the same roster minus veteran PJ Tucker.
They will open the 2023 season facing off against the Chicago Bulls, who were surrounded by plenty of buzz during the first half of last season after a 39-21 start. However, injuries and regression caught up to the re-emerging Bulls and they finished 7-15 to end the regular season before getting bounced 4-1 in the opening round of the playoffs.
Which Eastern Conference team will start the new season with their best foot forward on Wednesday night? Read our NBA betting picks and predictions below to find out.
Bulls vs Heat best odds
Bulls vs Heat picks and predictions
Death, taxes, and the Heat outperforming unreasonably low expectations. Year after year, Erik Spoelstra proves why he is considered the league's best head coach, as voted by general managers in the annual NBA.com GM poll.
Despite a Finals appearance in 2020 and an early playoff exit at the hands of the eventual Finals-winning Bucks, fans and analysts alike had turned their attention elsewhere and had pegged a handful of teams to finish ahead of the Heat.
But despite another year of implied disrespect, the Heat put their heads down and got to work and somewhat quietly finished with the East's top seed. And as they navigated their way through the playoffs, they found themselves in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals down 96-98 with the ball and the shot clock turned off. The ensuing failed 3-point attempt by Jimmy Butler was met with much discussion and criticism, and a lot of what-ifs posited in the minds of Heat fans.
This year, they will once again look to play above their strangely low expectations. Across every sportsbook, Miami is positioned fifth or sixth in odds to win the East. Leadman Jimmy Butler is typically outside the Top 20 in MVP odds and his running mate Bam Adebayo is often not even listed. Reigning Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro has a good handful of names ahead of him for this year's award despite being expected to maintain the same role as last year.
Across from them for Wednesday's opening tip is the Chicago Bulls, who played their own part in upending expectations last season. After being pegged as a fringe playoff team at best, the Chicago Bulls started 26-10 and 39-21 behind sublime play from Demar DeRozan and Zach Lavine. However, injuries to Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball led to some serious depth issues that caused a flat finish, including their five-game bounce in the first round of the playoffs.
Due to a lack of cap flexibility, both teams have seen very little turnover. The Heat have lost veteran PJ Tucker who brought defensive intensity and league-leading perimeter presence on the corners that will be hard to replicate. The Bulls are still without Lonzo Ball and will likely need to lean on second-year point guard Ayo Dosunmu, and were only able to add the aging Andre Drummond to bolster their frontcourt.
For all intents and purposes, both teams should look and operate similarly to last year's iterations. That would include a Chicago Bulls team that, despite finishing just above .500 against the spread (44-42-1), had the fifth-worst ATS record as an away underdog (9-16-0, 36%).
Miami was and still is the tangibly better team with more functional depth, and with the Bulls leaning on the inexperienced Dosunmu and the aging Drummond for serious minutes, that advantage should be on full display.
My best bet: Heat -6.5 (-105 at PointsBet)
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Bulls vs Heat spread analysis
The matchup is also very structurally unfavorable for the Bulls. For example, Nikola Vucevic is someone who typically fills the box score (17.6 ppg, 11.0 rpg) but will struggle against a team like Miami.
The Heat allowed the fewest points in the paint last season (40.7) and the gap between them and the next best team was the same size as the gap between second and sixth. Miami was also ninth in rebounding rate (50.8%) while Chicago was below average (19th).
On the perimeter, the Bulls will be without their best shooter from last year (Lonzo Ball's 42.3% ranked fourth) and while the Heat are now without PJ Tucker (42.2%), they still have Tyler Herro (39.9%), Duncan Robinson (37.3%), and Max Strus (39.0%) to maintain that threat.
That advantage gets exasperated by the fact that Chicago allowed the fourth-highest 3-point percentage last year (36.7%) while the Heat allowed the second-lowest (33.9%)
Quite simply, there are just far too many edges in favor of the Heat — and drastic ones at that. That also goes without mentioning that former Bull Jimmy Butler seemingly takes every game against his former team personally.
Butler has averaged 24.6 points and 5.9 assists in the ten games he has played against Chicago since being traded away, which includes an aggressive demeanor that has led to an average of 11.5 free throw attempts in those games.
Bulls vs Heat Over/Under analysis
The total of 216.5 for Wednesday's matchup is the second-lowest of all of the opening games. That is largely carried by the Heat's defensive proficiency, ranking fourth last year in defensive rating. The Bulls were also a respectable defensive team prior to Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball going down with injuries, but ultimately finished 23rd in defensive rating on the season.
The Bulls did at least play to a league-average pace (14th), but the Heat were notorious for slowing the game down with their third-slowest pace finish last year. It is notable, however, that the Heat started last year at a much higher relative pace, ranking 16th in October last year to start the season. This was also the theme in the season prior, with Miami ranking 13th in pace in the opening month before finishing 29th on the season.
If the Heat play at that more rapid pace and if Butler can draw fouls early on to help stop the clock often and get the Heat into the bonus early, the points may just come in frequently enough.
Bulls vs Heat betting trend to know
The Chicago Bulls finished 9-16 last season as road underdogs. Find more NBA betting trends for Bulls vs. Heat.
Bulls vs Heat game info
| Location: | FTX Arena, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Wednesday, October 19, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Chicago, Bally Sports Sun |
