The Atlanta Hawks welcome the Cleveland Cavaliers to State Farm Arena on Tuesday night.
Cleveland is in fourth place in the Eastern Conference standings and should be able to get home-court advantage for the first round barring a late-season collapse. Meanwhile, Atlanta is tied for eighth place and can't afford to slip up, with Toronto neck-and-neck and Chicago just a single game back.
Oddsmakers are expecting a close contest with NBA odds installing the Cavs as 1-point road favorites. Here are my best free Cavaliers vs. Hawks NBA picks and predictions for March 28.
Cavaliers vs Hawks best odds
Cavaliers vs Hawks picks and predictions
Cleveland big man Evan Mobley is third on the team in scoring, putting up 16.4 points per game on 55.4% shooting. The sophomore has logged 40 minutes in each of the last two games and that heavy playing time has led to even more opportunities offensively.
The O/U on Mobley's points total is set at 17.5, a number he has eclipsed in five of his last seven games. The Hawks have been vulnerable at the rim, ranking 28th in the league in ppg allowed in the paint (54.2) with that number ballooning to 61.3 ppg over their last three contest.
Mobley does most of his work close to the basket averaging 11.8 ppg in the paint, and he looks like a good bet to go Over his points total considering his frontcourt partner Jarrett Allen has been officially listed out (ankle). This means Mobley should be in line for even more touches in the paint tonight.
My best bet: Evan Mobley Over 17.5 points (-108)
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Cavaliers vs Hawks spread analysis
The Cavs are 9-2 straight up and 6-5 against the spread in their last 11 games. They enter this contest on a four-game winning streak and most recently clobbered the last-place Rockets 108-91 in Cleveland on Sunday.
They lead the league in defensive rating (109.6) but could take a step back in that area considering Allen won't see the floor, plus the fact that Isaac Okoro is questionable to suit up as well. Allen leads the team with 9.9 rebounds and blocks 1.2 shots per game, while Okoro is their best perimeter defender.
Cleveland has been impressive on the other side of the floor as well. Guards Donovan Mitchell (27.4 points and 4.5 assists per game) and Darius Garland (21.6 ppg, 7.8 apg) anchor an offense that ranks eighth in the league in efficiency (115.5).
Meanwhile, Atlanta has dropped five of its last eight games and is coming off a 123-110 loss to the Grizzlies.
The Hawks have a high-octane offense with seven players averaging double-digits in points — led by their dynamic backcourt of Trae Young (26.6 ppg, 10 apg) and Dejounte Murray (20.4 ppg). However, they've struggled in their own end and rank 22nd in defensive rating
When these teams previously faced off last month, Atlanta hammered the Cavs 136-119 in State Farm.
Cavaliers vs Hawks Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 233 and has surged all the way up to 238.5 as of 1 p.m. ET. These teams combined for 255 points when they previously clashed, but this number still seems a tad too high for Cleveland at first glance.
Keep in mind, the Cavs play at the slowest pace in the NBA and rank first in scoring defense by holding foes to just 106.5 ppg. That said, the Hawks are fifth in the league in average time of possession and can fill up the hoop on offense despite struggling defensively.
Atlanta is fourth in the league in scoring with 118 ppg, with that number surging to 123.9 ppg since the All-Star break. On the other side of the floor, they surrender 117.8 ppg with that number ticking up to 121.9 ppg since the break.
That means that in 17 games since All-Star weekend, Atlanta games have seen an average total of 245.8 ppg despite not a single contest going into overtime. Cleveland's contests have also been slightly higher scoring since the break with an average total of 222 ppg, so this O/U opening almost exactly in the middle of both numbers makes sense.
Cavaliers vs Hawks betting trend to know
The Over is 4-1 in Atlanta's last five home games while going 5-0 in the Cavaliers' previous five contests on the road. Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Hawks.
Cavaliers vs Hawks game info
| Location: | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Tuesday, March 28, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Ohio, Bally Sports Southeast |
