Cavaliers vs Mavericks Picks and Predictions: Can Luka Crack Cavs' Elite D?

The Cleveland Cavaliers (17-11) have seen good dividends from their offseason trade for Donovan Mitchell, currently sitting third in the Eastern Conference after two months of play. However, results as of late have been less than ideal, having dropped three of their last five, including their last loss to the 9-18 Spurs.

On Wednesday, they will try to improve their 5-9 road record against the Dallas Mavericks (14-13), who, on the back of insane Luka Doncic usage, have managed to barely keep their head above .500 water and barely in the play-in playoff picture, but have also defended home court better than most (11-4).

Can Mitchell and the Cavs get a key victory on the road, or will Doncic lead the Mavs to another home win?

Continue reading for free Cavaliers vs. Mavericks NBA picks and predictions for Wednesday, December 14th.

Cavaliers vs Mavericks best odds

Cavaliers vs Mavericks picks and predictions

The NBA is all about matchups and situations, and Wednesday's game between the Cavaliers and Mavericks is a shining example of that. Despite the Cavaliers boasting a much better record (17-11) through nearly two months of play compared to the Mavericks (14-13), the latter find themselves favored for their contest tonight.

The easiest explanation is these team's splits at home and on the road: Cleveland has managed just a 5-9 record on the road and Dallas has played to an 11-4 record at home. But those types of records can be misleading, especially in a relatively small sample size earlier on in the season, as the result of lopsided scheduling, variance, etc.

For example, at home the Mavericks are ninth in net rating (7.2), but on the road they're 24th (-5.1). Given Luka Doncic's massive usage, he would be a good starting point to explain those differences.

For one, he seemingly takes care of the ball much better at home: he averages a full turnover more on the road (4.1). He also shoots noticeably better at home from the field (52.4% FG% vs 47.1%) and from the stripe (74.1% vs 67.7%).

When we look at the Cavs, however, their poor away record seems to be more of a product of happenstance. At home, the Cavaliers are third in net rating, and on the road they're also third (1.3). Looking across their splits, there aren't any glaring discrepancies. Their 3-point percentage (tenth to 12th), true shooting percentage (ninth to 12th), assist-to-turnover rate (22nd to 23rd), pace (30th to 29th) are all within reason.

So, what is the takeaway here? For one, the Cavaliers are a more consistent and reliable team night to night, no matter where they are playing. Secondly, although the Mavericks are tangibly better at home, there aren't many metrics to suggest that they are as good as the Cavaliers.

Cleveland also poses a difficult challenge for Dallas roster-wise, given its excess of interior defensive threats. The Cavaliers allow just 46.0 points in the paint per game, the second-lowest in the league. That may naturally force the ball out to the Mavericks’ perimeter shooters, and Cleveland is also great at closing out — it allows the fifth-fewest 3-point attempts in the league.

My best bet: Cavaliers +2 (-110 at bet365)

Cavaliers vs Mavericks spread analysis

Cleveland is 15-11-2 against the spread this year, good for the seventh-best mark in the league. Given their poor road record, the Cavs have also not performed well as road underdogs, going 1-5 ATS.

Dallas is 8-17-2 ATS, the worst record in the league, and also 4-9-1 as a home favorite, covering at the third-lowest rate in that split. The Mavs have failed to cover in four straight games.

Cavaliers vs Mavericks Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 215 and currently sits at 216 across most markets.

The Cavaliers have gone 17-11 to the Under this year, the second-highest Under rate in the league. They went Over the total in their last game, but had gone Under in the eight games prior to that.

The Mavericks have gone 17-10 to the Over this year, the second-best mark in the league. At home, they have gone 9-6 that way, and as favorites they have gone 13-8. They have gone over the total in four of their last five and seven of their last nine.

Given the aforementioned challenges the Cavaliers can throw at the Mavericks, Dallas may struggle to score and will likely regularly find themselves deep into the shot clock. The total is already low as-is, but Cleveland also plays at the slowest pace in the league.

Cavaliers vs Mavericks betting trend to know

The Mavericks are 8-17-2 against the spread, the worst cover rate in the league. Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Mavericks.

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