Celtics vs 76ers Picks and Predictions: Harris Will Have Prop Bettors Smiling

The Boston Celtics will attempt to keep their current momentum in the City of Brotherly Love in a battle with the Atlantic Division rival Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday night.

With four contests remaining on the schedule, Boston is two games behind Milwaukee at the top the Eastern Conference standings, having won two straight and five of its last six outings (4-2 ATS). While the top seed is still viable, the team is more than likely finishing No. 2 in the East.

Philadelphia, on the other hand, has stumbled in recent weeks, with only two victories in its past six contests (3-3 ATS). They look bound for third place in the conference standings.

I run down the point spread and Over/Under for this divisional dance, and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Celtics vs 76ers on April 4.

Celtics vs 76ers best odds

Celtics vs 76ers picks and predictions

Philadelphia forward Tobias Harris was among the many 76ers who struggled to find their touch against Milwaukee on Sunday.

Harris — who was 3-for-6 from the floor, including 0-for-3 from beyond the arc — finished with only six points, and was pulled from the game for the entire fourth quarter by head coach Doc Rivers.

Rivers explained to the media that the decision to yank Harris after 28 minutes was based on the Bucks running away with the score (up 14 points after three quarters), and Harris recently returning from an illness after missing the game prior.

That quiet night has Harris’ scoring prop trending on the low end for this matchup with the Celtics. His Over/Under on points is set at 12.5 (Over -104), and even with the game total telling the tale of a defensive battle between these divisional rivals, I have Harris projected for 14 points.

Harris is a player that can get lost in the offense when the Sixers push the pace or force more transition, and is more effective in halfcourt sets. We saw him go MIA against the up-tempo Bucks on the weekend. But if we look at the recent matchups between Philly and Boston, we find an extremely low pace rating of 94.50 over three matchups this season.

Harris had 19 points in the most recent meeting with the Celtics on 8-for-12 shooting, including 3-of-5 from distance, in a 110-107 loss at Wells Fargo Center on Feb. 25. That game boasted a pace of 96.5.

Harris’ offensive efforts have been spotty over the past month-plus, but he’s averaging 15.2 points since the All-Star break. Before Sunday’s six-point blip, he scored 13 points or more in eight straight appearances (while missing a March 31 game with Toronto).

He is also a strong performer at home, averaging 15.5 points per contest in Wells Fargo, where he shoots better than 51% from the field, and sees a jump to 40.6% success from beyond the arc in front of the Philly faithful.

My best bet: Harris Over 12.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)

Celtics vs 76ers spread analysis

With the league on hiatus Monday, oddsmakers opened the Sixers as one-point home favorites on Sunday night. That spread has since puffed up to as big as -2.5 at some sportsbooks, with Celtics standout Jaylen Brown listed as questionable with a bad back, and energetic center Robert Williams III sitting out for rest reasons. As of Tuesday morning, the market consensus is Philadelphia -2.

Boston made a statement in the East with a one-sided win over Milwaukee last Thursday, taking down the top-seeded Bucks 140-99 as two-point road underdogs. The Celtics kept that momentum with a 122-114 home win over Utah the next night, but fell short as 13-point chalk.

After a slow start to the post-break schedule, Boston is back among the NBA elite. Its offense has seen a spike in this six-game span, in part to some weaker defensive competition like Sacramento, Indiana, San Antonio and Utah. But there’s no denying the firepower on this roster. Especially when Brown is healthy.

Philadelphia’s scoring prowess has taken a few ticks back during its recent slump, with the 76ers averaging less than 111 points per game in its past six showings. The Sixers did have stars Joel Embiid and James Harden in and out of the lineup in that span, and are coming off a 117-104 loss at Milwaukee as five-point dogs on Sunday.

These Atlantic rivals last clashed in late February, with Boston winning 110-107 as a one-point favorite in Philly. The Celtics have won all three meetings with the 76ers this season, covering as short faves in each of those matchups.

Celtics vs 76ers Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under opened as high as 232.5 points at some books on Monday, and has slimmed as low as 227 points as of Tuesday morning.

With Boston looking to secure at least the No. 2 seed in the East, this divisional rivalry could take on a playoff-like atmosphere and intensity. These teams faced each other twice in February, with both games finishing Under totals of 226 and 228 points, respectively. Those contests were played at a slower tempo, with a combined pace rating of just 93.

Complementing Boston’s offensive explosion has been stingy defensive efforts over the past six games. The Celtics have taken advantage of a softer schedule at points, but did slow down top-tier attacks like Sacramento (109 points), Milwaukee (99 points), and Utah (114 points) in that stretch. Not having Williams patrolling the paint is a knock on this defense tonight, as he’s been a spark on that end of the floor since his return to action on March 21.

Boston has gone 4-2 O/U in those last six games against some tall totals, with closing numbers of 236.5, 237.5 and 238.5 along the way. Tuesday’s total tells a different story, with NBA odds projecting a defensive battle between these familiar foes. Boston is 5-8 O/U (61.5% Unders) against Atlantic Division rivals this season.

The Sixers are 2-4 O/U in their last six games, mixing mediocre offensive efforts with sound defensive play. Philadelphia is one of the league's toughest teams at home, allowing less than 110 points per game inside the Wells Fargo Center, where it ranks No. 8 in home defensive rating. The 76ers have stayed below the total in six of their last eight homestands heading into tonight.

Celtics vs 76ers betting trend to know

The Celtics are 5-1 ATS as underdogs this year, and 23-12-2 ATS when getting points the past two seasons. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. 76ers.

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