The Milwaukee Bucks are back in contending form – and that's bad news for a Boston Celtics team that just experienced the Bucks' dominance first-hand.
The Bucks and Celtics duel in a Friday night rematch of one of the season’s most entertaining games. Milwaukee pulled out a 121-119 win over Boston on Wednesday night to run their winning streak to eight games. And while the Celtics have bolstered their roster with Evan Fournier from Orlando, he won't be in action for Friday's rematch.
These are our favorite NBA betting free picks and predictions for Celtics vs. Bucks on March 26.
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks betting preview
Injuries
Celtics: G Evan Fournier (Out), C Tristan Thompson (Out), F Semi Ojeleye (Out), G Romeo Langford (Out), F Luke Kornet (Questionable), F Moritz Wagner (Questionable).
Bucks: F Rodion Kurucs (Out), F P.J. Tucker (Doubtful), G Bryn Forbes (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Over is 4-0 in Celtics' last four road games, and 6-1 in Bucks' last seven games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Bucks.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonPointsBet USA pegged Milwaukee a 5-point favorite at the outset Thursday afternoon and overnight reached -6, where the line stuck all day. It's two-way action as of 5 p.m. ET, with the Bucks taking 61 percent of bets and 51 percent of money on the spread. The total opened at 232.5, bottomed out at 232 and is up to 235, with 65 percent of bets/77 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
Neither of these teams is performing that well ATS in recent weeks. Boston comes in with an unsightly 5-10 ATS record over its previous 15 games, while the Bucks are on a 3-6 ATS run despite their lengthy winning streak. That said, if you're looking for a difference-making stat, note that Milwaukee is 13-10 ATS at home, while the Celtics are 8-16 ATS away from TD Garden.
There's also the fact that, while Boston might have its two other new arrivals in action (Mortiz Wagner and Luke Kornet), neither is likely to make that big of an impact. And the Bucks have been scoring at will pretty much all season long, which should continue unabated against a Boston team that ranks in the middle of the pack league-wide in scoring defense.
We trust the Bucks to do a more thorough job of besting the Celtics in Friday's rematch.
PREDICTION: Bucks -6 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The total for this game is sitting 2-3 points higher than Wednesday's initial matchup – and that still might not be high enough. Milwaukee is on a solid 6-1 O/U run over the past seven games, with five of those outings producing at least 235 points. And Boston has seen an average of 249 points scored over its previous two games, both losses.
Boston's recent history against Eastern Conference opponents also favors the Over, with the Celtics having gone 7-3 O/U in their past 10. The Bucks' core players are all healthy, while the Celtics are certainly in a better position to break out offensively with sparkplug Marcus Smart back in the fold following a lengthy injury absence.
Fournier might not be active, but these teams should still produce enough fireworks to send this one past the number.
PREDICTION: Over 234 (-110)
Player prop pick
Celtics forward Jayson Tatum has made a habit out of responding to bad performances with good ones. Tatum averages 24.4 points in seven games this season after scoring fewer than 20 points in the previous game; throw a nine-point dud vs. Indiana out of that equation and the average rises all the way to 27.0 points in the other six games.
The Celtics will need to be at their best offensively to keep pace with the relentless Bucks – and with Fournier still sidelined, that should mean plenty of opportunities for Tatum to atone for his 18-point showing two nights earlier.
PREDICTION: Jayson Tatum Over 24.5 Points (-104)
Celtics vs Bucks betting card
- Bucks -6 (-110)
- Over 234 (-110)
- Jayson Tatum Over 24.5 Points (-104)
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