Celtics vs Cavaliers Picks and Predictions: Horford Look His Age in Cleveland

The ESPN headliner for Wednesday, November 2 is a rematch of one of the young NBA season’s early contenders for game of the year. The Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers played an absolute barn-burner just this past Friday and Boston is now looking for revenge after Cleveland came away the 132-123 OT winner.

After dropping their opener against the Toronto Raptors, the Cavs have rattled off five straight wins. They’re in for a dogfight if they want to stretch that streak to six, as the Celtics have been dynamite on offense.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Celtics vs. Cavaliers hone in on the slow start for Boston big man Al Horford, and whether we might be witnessing the beginning of the end of his laudable career.

Celtics vs Cavaliers best odds

Celtics vs Cavaliers picks and predictions

Al Horford has had a remarkable career. His renaissance last season was a delight to watch, and I’m still dizzy from some of his shooting performances in the playoffs that nearly won Boston the whole damn thing. 

But Horford has not had the same impact for the Celtics this season as he did a year ago. The hour is getting late, and the productive days of his playing career may be drawing to a close.

It might seem harsh to project such a dropoff after only a few games, but even Horford’s bounce-back last season was the product of unique circumstances. His stay with the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2020-21 was functionally a sabbatical, as he played only 28 games before Sam Presti moved the Thunder fully into tanking. That time off did wonders for Horford’s body, and consequently his game. He played at a championship caliber last season and the Celtics don’t make the Finals without him.

By contrast, this year, Horford’s coming off 69 regular season games and one of the most grueling playoff runs I can ever remember. He battled the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, and Draymond Green in back-to-back-to-back series. 

Robert Williams has still yet to play this season, so he’s had to be the full-time center, or at least the primary big man defender, after a shortened offseason. Normal NBA players in their athletic prime struggle with recovery after a Finals run — Horford is 36 with a ton of miles on the odometer already.

The statistical hallmarks are all there. Per Cleaning the Glass, he’s averaging career-lows in usage (11.2%), assist percentage (8.6%), defensive rebound percentage (12.1%), and a high in turnover percentage (14.1%). The only thing sustaining his game so far is some hot 3-point shooting, but that’s a flimsy foundation for a player like Horford to rest on.

Perhaps the most damning indictment of the state of Horford’s game at this stage is that through five games, he’s yet to attempt a free throw. Horford has never been a free throw magnet, but just battling on the boards and winning the war of position inside should have earned him a few trips to the line at this point of the season. It’s all indicative of a broader athletic decline, the inevitable fate of every NBA player.

Horford will still have nights where he’s a difference-maker on the court, but at this point, one should expect them to be few and far between. Tonight, he’s up against the best defensive and rebounding frontcourt duo in the NBA, whose combination of youth and skill should make him look his age.

My best bet: Al Horford Under 16.5 points and rebounds (-113)

Celtics vs Cavaliers spread analysis

Boston has been pegged at somewhere between a -1.5 and -2-point NBA odds favorite for Wednesday’s game. That’s a serious mark of respect for a Cleveland Cavaliers team that has been playing very solid ball to begin the year.

Boston and Cleveland’s offensive ratings are almost identical, ranking seventh and sixth, respectively. The difference in team quality to date then is all about the other side of the ball. While Boston has tremendous defensive upside (I’d argue even higher than Cleveland’s in the playoffs), they’re not off to a great start.

Boston’s defense has been downright bad so far. It’s all the way in the Bottom 10 of defensive rating. There’s a lot of noise in such statistics early in the year, but there’s also something to be said about the giant Robert Williams-shaped hole in the Celtics’ frontcourt rotation. That thin frontcourt remains the Celts’ biggest weakness, and it’s one the Cavaliers are reasonably well-equipped to exploit.

The Cavaliers entered the season with a question mark at the small forward position, a question that seems to have landed on a satisfactory answer sooner than expected. For now, at least, it’s fourth-year swingman Dean Wade manning the small forward spot. 

Having averaged less than 20 minutes per game in his three-year career to date, Wade is a relative unknown outside the hardcore fandom, but he provides two crucial elements to the Cavaliers. One, he can actually defend other wings, a distinction he shares with few other Cavs players. Secondly, he’s a solid spot-up shooter from distance, having hit over 62% of his triples so far in the young season. 

So, the Celtics’ biggest issue remains unsolved while the Cavaliers seem to have found some early answers. I’d lean toward a Cavs cover.

Celtics vs Cavaliers Over/Under analysis

Books are projecting tonight’s game as a defensive showcase, with a modest Total of 218.5 that, in a vacuum, is not reflective of the amount of individual scoring talent that both teams possess. I think that’s not unreasonable. 

For as brilliant as Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell have been as go-to scoring stars to start this season, both the Celtics and the Cavaliers will ultimately only go as far as their collective defenses can carry them.

The Cavaliers’ looks like it might carry them very far indeed. Their giant lineup headlined by Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley is back and it’s proving just as effective as it did before injuries derailed the Cavs last year. Cleveland currently ranks second in defensive rating and it’s doing an outstanding job of limiting opponent 3-point attempts.

Still, Boston can bend even great defenses to the breaking point. It has the fourth-highest effective field goal percentage in the NBA per Cleaning the Glass, led by Jayson Tatum who is just a hair below 70% (!) true shooting. Boston’s offense would be even better if they weren’t such an abysmal offensive rebounding team. Again, an area they desperately miss the “Time Lord”.

Cleveland rarely gets all the way to the rim on offense — its spacing a casualty of itsTwin Towers pairing of Mobley and Allen. The Cavs make up for it by bombing jumpers. 

Boston is an even more extreme case. While the Cavaliers regularly lean into the midrange, the Celtics have excised almost all such shots in favor of the long ball. Both teams’ emphasis on 3-point offense makes it tough to confidently project the Total, particularly this early in the season while style of play is still relatively fluid.

Celtics vs Cavaliers betting trend to know

Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Cavaliers.

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