Celtics vs Hawks Game 6 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Celtics Take Wire-to-Wire Win

Beantown bettors and Janet Jackson fans are among those stunned by the sudden surge from the Atlanta Hawks in their Eastern Conference quarterfinal with the Boston Celtics.

The Celtics were en route to an easy opening round set after blasting the Hawks in the first two games of the series. And even when Atlanta pushed back with a win in Game 3, followed by a hard-fought Boston victory in Game 4, Celtics fans were already booking hotels for a Round 2 trip to Philadelphia.

However, the Hawks rallied as 14-point road underdogs and stole a 119-117 win in TD Garden in Game 5 — without suspended standout Dejounte Murray. That sets up a return home (and bumps Ms. Jackson's ATL concert stop to Friday) with the NBA odds installing Atlanta as a 6.5-point pup for Game 6 on Thursday night.

I dig into the point spread and Over/Under total for tonight’s quarterfinal quarrel and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Celtics at Hawks on April 27.

Celtics vs Hawks Game 6 best odds

Celtics vs Hawks Game 6 picks and predictions

The Hawks might be one loss away from elimination, but all the pressure is on the Celtics to seal the deal tonight.

Especially with the Milwaukee Bucks bounced from the playoffs and the Philadelphia 76ers getting healthier by the day, Boston needs to wrap this first-round series up — and quick. That urgency has been there at times for the Celtics, at least in the opening 24 minutes.

Boston has led at the halftime break in all but one of the five games in this series and routinely has held solid advantages heading into the second half, with an average margin of +11 points after two quarters. It’s the remaining 1,440 seconds that have become the problem.

The Celtics flip a first-half net rating of +20.0 into a second-half metric of -13.4, which is why I find it tough to take this spread now that it’s jumped as high as Boston -7.5 at some sportsbooks. I did bet the Celtics -3 on the first-half spread on Wednesday, but that derivative market has moved to as high as Boston -4 1H as books pad against those strong starts from the C's

The outright odds for Boston are also on the rise, with the moneyline moving from -220 on the opener to as big as -300 at some operators. While I do feel the Celtics are the right side, I don’t want to lay that lumber on the ML, nor am I comfortable taking the worst of the point spread at this point — given Boston’s shaky second halves.

Enter the double result. Also known as the first half/full game odds, you can get the Celtics to win the first half (which they’ve been doing) and win the game outright at -140 odds. It's a much easier pill to swallow with minimal risk.

I believe in the Boston defense and desperation will add incentive to not leave the door open a crack in the second half. The Hawks’ hot hand from outside can burn out at any second and the C’s can break the game open if they’re trading threes for twos.

My best bet: Celtics double result (-140 at bet365)

Celtics vs Hawks Game 6 spread analysis

The momentum of the series has shifted over the past three games, and we see that in the opening spread for Game 6. Atlanta, which closed as a 7.5-point home underdog in Game 4, opened as low as +5.5 for Thursday’s matchup.

But with a surplus of Boston money showing up, that spread has run up as high as Celtics -7 on Thursday morning. According to Covers Consensus, 57% of picks are siding with the C’s in Game 6.

The opening-round series has gotten away from Boston, which flexed its defensive prowess in the first two games. The Hawks, one of the highest-scoring teams in the NBA, shot a collective 40.7% from the floor in those losses.

Things changed in Game 3, with Atlanta’s offense waking up in a 130-122 shootout win, and Atlanta has found its form in the past three outings, firing at a 48.8% clip from the floor — including a near 43% success rate from beyond the arc — and doing so against a Celtics defense that finished the post-break schedule ranked No. 2 in D-rating.

Second halves have been nightmare material for Celtics bettors. Boston has crumbled in the final 24 minutes of this series, most notably the last three games, with a net rating of -10.0 in the final two quarters in that span. That’s left the backdoor open for bettors, making for some comfortable final minutes.

The Hawks will have standout guard Dejounte Murray back in action tonight as well, after he served a one-game ban in Game 5 for bumping an official at the end of Game 4. Murray has been huge for the Hawks in this series, averaging more than 25 points, and 5.8 assists, and providing a consistent threat from beyond the arc.

Celtics vs Hawks Game 6 Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under for Game 6 hit the board at 231.5 points and has bounced between that opener and 232 as of Thursday morning.

The previous three games have all gone Over the total, with those numbers ranging from 229 to 231.5. The Hawks' hot hand has turned this series into a higher-scoring series than what we expected after the opening pair of contests.

The Celtics had been getting the job done with defense in the second half of the regular season and entered the postseason playing playoff-like defense. Boston certainly has the firepower to put up big points — and shoots a ton of triples — but getting into a tit-for-tat track meet with Atlanta isn’t the best approach to winning this series.

Atlanta has not only found its form on offense but has been taking and making shots from beyond the arc. The Hawks finished the post-break slate averaging only 11 triples per contest on 36.6% shooting from distance and went a collective 21 for 77 from 3-point range in the opening two games of the series (27%). They’ve turned that around with 48 makes from distance the past three games (43%).

The pace of play between the opening two games and the past three hasn’t changed much at all, going from 102.75 to 102.17. As long as both sides continue to shoot at a high rate and make those looks from long range, the high-scoring finishes will keep coming.

Celtics vs Hawks betting trend to know

Boston went 48-38-1 against the first half spread this season while Atlanta is 38-48-2 1H ATS. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Hawks.

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