Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat will host the Boston Celtics at Kaseya Center tonight for Game 4 and will look to pull off another upset.
My Celtics vs Heat predictions are calling for lots of touches for Bam, which will result in plenty of assists for the Miami big man. Find out more in my NBA picks for this April 29 tilt below.
Celtics vs Heat predictions
My best bet
Bam Adebayo Over 3.5 assists (+135 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Miami Heat struggle to score the basketball on a normal day, but when playing against the Boston Celtics without Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier, those difficulties are only magnified.
It could be tricky to pinpoint Miami's usage if they were in, but there are only so many players who can create offense against this Celtics defense, and that responsibility now falls into the lap of Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro.
Adebayo will see a ton of touches on the offensive end because he has to. Most of Adebayo's potential assists will be dependent on role players knocking down jump shots, and in the NBA Playoffs, we always see role players step up at home.
We've seen Miami run a ton of dribble handoff actions with Adebayo and Herro, which will also allow Adebayo to collect potential assists — but it's more his matchup with Kristaps Porzingis that has me targeting this number.
Porzingis is taller than Adebayo and can be severely disruptive to his midrange jumper or ability to finish around the rim. Porzingis is someone who will force Adebayo to pass, and that will only magnify when Boston chooses to double team.
Don't let the large spread scare you either. In the games the Heat were blown out, he still played 36 and 38 minutes. This is impactful for me when evaluating this bet because the projection we have for Adebayo is only 35 minutes. It's nice to know he went over this number in games that weren't competitive as well.
Adebayo is projected to have four assists which allows us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -126, but it is available at bet365 at +135.
Celtics vs Heat same-game parlay (SGP)
Bam Adebayo Over 3.5 assists
Caleb Martin Over 1.5 made threes
Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 0.5 made threes
If we're going to get a green checkmark on our Adebayo assists prop, we're going to need some players on the Heat to make some 3-pointers.
I'm rolling with these two because I prefer their odds compared to Herro, who is trading at 3.5. Adebayo will most likely collect an assist from Herro on the DHO action and Herro cashing a three, but I just think the 3.5 threes made for Herro is too high. Erik Spoelstra has shown us in this series he is willing to play Jaquez and Martin for 30+ minutes against the Celtics.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Celtics vs Heat odds
Celtics vs Heat live odds
Get the latest Celtics vs Heat NBA playoff odds for Game-X.
Celtics vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Boston -10 (-110) | Miami +10 (-110)
- Moneyline: Boston -500 | Miami +385
- Over/Under: Over 204 (-110) | Under 204 (-110)
Celtics vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Celtics opened as a 10-point favorite at FanDuel, and we have seen the line move half a point in their favor to make them a 10.5-point favorite.
- The total opened at FanDuel at 204 and has dropped half a point to 203.5.
- The total of 203.5 is not a consensus number in the market, as you can find the total trading anywhere between 203.5 and 204.5, so make sure to shop around before placing a bet.
- We've seen little to no movement on the numbers for both the spread and total, which is very telling.
Celtics vs Heat trend
The Miami Heat have hit the second quarter game total Over in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+13.10 Units / 29% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Heat.
Celtics vs Heat game info
| Location: | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Monday, 4-29-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Celtics vs Heat latest injuries
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