The Boston Celtics are racing to the finish of the season with 12 wins in their last 13 games, and will head on the road to take on the San Antonio Spurs who have taken their last three at the Frost Bank Center.
My Celtics vs. Spurs predictions will cover why San Antonio’s defense could keep this one surprisingly tight, even if it’s incredibly shorthanded due to injury.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks on Saturday, March 29.
Celtics vs Spurs prediction
My best bet: Spurs +12.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
It’s been a decent stretch for the San Antonio Spurs despite the continued absence of Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox. They’ve been particularly potent on defense in the last two weeks, sitting just outside the top 10 in efficiency rating, though it’s fair to ask whether or not this is sustainable.
San Antonio is also without backup center Charles Bassey, and that’s hurt at the rim – where it has fallen almost 10 spots on defense and ranks 23rd on the glass in the last 14 days.
The key to the Spurs’ efficiency has been their ability to concentrate their opponents’ shots to the mid-range, something they’ve done better than every team but one over that span, but in better news they rank 11th against the three as their defense improves with more minutes for Stephon Castle.
The unfortunate news is that the Boston Celtics are taking the most three-point attempts in the league by a ridiculous margin, so it’ll come down to whether or not San Antonio’s able to run its opponents off the three-point line.
Boston’s shot the three a bit better than its season average over the last two weeks, though it does stand to get a bit worse with Payton Pritchard missing this one.
The thing that could ultimately swing this game is Boston’s 13th-ranked three-point defense, which will make life difficult on a Spurs team which has only found success scoring from outside and has had a huge tendency to shoot from outside.
Still, I think the margins are close enough here where 12.5 points is unfair to spot Boston. San Antonio’s defense – particularly around the arc – has remained strong and the Celtics have shied away from shooting at the rim which should aid the home side in its quest to slow a high-octane offense.
Celtics vs Spurs same-game parlay
Spurs +12.5
Devin Vassell Over 17.5 points
Luke Kornet Over 7.5 rebounds
The softest spot in this Celtics’ defense has been the long mid-range jumper, which it has defended at the second-worst clip in the NBA over the last two weeks, and that’s where Devin Vassell has don much of his shooting. He sits in the top 6% of all wings in shooting frequency there, and has emerged as a top scoring option for the Spurs with 20 or more points in four straight.
I’m just as hot on Luke Kornet here, heading up against an injury-riddled Spurs frontcourt which has ranked in the bottom 10 of the league in rebounding in the last 14 days. Al Horford is going to miss this one due to injury, and the last time he sat we saw Kornet play a whopping 26 minutes.
Kornet picked up eight boards in that one and has now done that twice in his last four games. Rebounds are easy to come by against the Spurs, and the veteran should see more than enough playing time to get home on this number.
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Celtics vs Spurs odds
Celtics vs Spurs live odds
Celtics vs Spurs opening odds
- Spread: Boston -12 (-110) | San Antonio +12 (-110)
- Moneyline: Boston -600 | San Antonio XX
- Over/Under: Over 227.5 | Under 227.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Celtics vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Boston has now covered in four straight games and is 8-4 against the spread in its last 12.
- The Spurs are just 10-11 ATS as home favorites.
- San Antonio is 11-4 to the Over in its last 15 games, but 2-3 in its last five.
- The Celtics are just 14-20 to the Over as road favorites this season.
Celtics vs Spurs trend
The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 31 games at home (+15.95 Units / 44% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Spurs.
How to watch Celtics vs Spurs
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas |
| Date | Saturday, 3-29-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBA TV |
Celtics vs Spurs latest injuries
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