Clippers vs Jazz Game 1 Picks and Predictions: Will Long Layoff Hurt Utah?

L.A. has won four of five since falling down 2-0 to the Mavericks and enters Game 1 against the well-rested Jazz as 4-point underdogs, with early action siding with Utah. Find out who we like in our Clippers vs. Jazz picks and predictions.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Jun 8, 2021 • 09:28 ET • 2 min read
Kawhi Leonard Los Angeles Clippers Donovan Mitchell Utah Jazz NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Los Angeles Clippers don’t have much time to catch their breath between series, visiting the Utah Jazz for Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal on Tuesday.

The Clippers won a Game 7 showdown against Dallas on Sunday and now make the trek to Salt Lake City to face the Jazz, who rolled through Memphis in five games in their opening round set. The NBA betting odds have Utah as a 4-point home favorite, holding a 25-14 ATS mark inside Vivint Arena.

Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Clippers vs. Jazz on June 8.

(Editor's Note: This preview was published prior to Tuesday afternoon's announcement that Jazz PG Mike Conley will miss Game 1.)

Clippers vs Jazz game info

Location: Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, UT
Date: Tuesday, June 8, 2021
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

Clippers vs Jazz odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

Utah landed on TwinSpires' odds board as a 4-point favorite and dropped to -3, where the Game 1 line stands at 6:45 p.m. ET. The Jazz are taking 57 percent of point-spread tickets, while the Clippers are drawing 64 percent of point-spread cash. The total is down a point to 220.5, with the Under getting 58 percent of tickets/55 percent of money.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Clippers vs Jazz series odds

Clippers: +116
Jazz: -136

Clippers vs Jazz betting preview

Injuries

Clippers: Serge Ibaka F (Doubtful).
Jazz: Mike Conley G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 16-6-1 in the Clippers' last 23 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Jazz.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

The trip to Utah is a challenge in itself for Los Angeles. The Clippers are coming off a grueling seven-game slugfest with the Mavericks and now must turnaround and climb the mountain in Utah, playing in the thinner air 4,300 feet above sea level against an opponent which has had its feet up since June 3.

That said, Los Angeles is coming off its best performance of the postseason – perhaps the entire season – with a 126-111 Game 7 win and rides a wave of momentum into Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs, winning four of the last five after dropping the opening two games of the postseason. And three of those victories came on the road.

The Jazz present some different challenges than Dallas did, with Donovan Mitchell now playing the role of Luka Doncic. While talented, Mitchell doesn’t have the same size or strength of Doncic, which plagued L.A.’s matchups.

The 6-foot-3 guard is a much simpler assignment for the Clippers’ perimeter defenders and The Spida had mixed results versus Los Angeles in the regular season, with the Jazz going 2-1 SU and ATS versus the Clippers and Mitchell averaging 24.7 points on 43 percent shooting. The injury to Mike Conley allows the Clips to focus defensive fire on Mitchell and keep fresh legs in front of him in Game 1.

Utah is a much tougher nut to crack on defense than Dallas but with the way the Clippers can shoot the ball, the Jazz’s vaunted interior protection may not be worth its weight in gambling gold. Los Angeles was the top outside shooting team in the regular season and played like it while closing out the Mavericks, including a 20-for-43 performance from deep in Game 7.

Los Angeles rolled out a smaller lineup in the second half of the quarterfinal series, utilizing versatile forwards Nicolas Batum and Marcus Morris Sr., who can suck Utah’s rim protector Rudy Gobert away from the paint and cause mismatch nightmares in pick-and-roll switches.

The Clippers opened as 3.5-point underdogs and are now up to +4, with early action siding with the rested Jazz. However, we’ve seen teams rust up after an extended break (what’s up Milwaukee) and the Jazz are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played on three or more days’ rest.

PREDICTION: Los Angeles +4 (-110)

Over/Under pick

The Jazz and Clippers went 0-2-1 Over/Under in their three regular season meetings and present much stiffer push back on defense than their respective Round 1 opponents.

Both teams are disruptive and force foes to play outside of their offense, ranked No. 1 (Utah) and No. 4 (L.A.) in opponent assists per field goal made. They both sat Top 8 in advanced defensive rating in the regular season and do a good job cleaning the glass, boasting rebound rates of 52.7 and 51.2 percent on the season.

The Jazz’s pick-and-roll attack is the best in the land and Los Angeles did struggle defending those screen options during the season and in the quarterfinals versus Doncic and Dallas. If Conley is out/limited, however, that page of the playbook does lose some teeth, especially when it comes to creating space on the 3-point arc.

As for L.A.’s offense, the Jazz will try to get their heels above the 3-point line on shooters and funnel everything to Gobert. The Clippers will find themselves utilizing a lot of isolation, especially if they draw Gobert out and get mismatches with Leonard and Paul. That means a multitude of one-on-one takes late in the shot clock.

This total opened 221.5 and has ticked down to 220.5, with early play on the Under. The Jazz and Clippers have gone 1-4-1 Over/Under in their last five matchups and L.A. is 6-16-1 O/U in its last 23 contests overall.

PREDICTION: Under 220.5 (-110)

Player prop pick

Without Conley at 100 percent, Mitchell is going to have to share some of the playmaking duties for the Jazz.

The shooting guard was a catalyst for this offense with his first-quarter scoring in the opening round but with the Clippers tossing elite on-the-ball checks at him, he needs to find another way to get Utah going.

Mitchell averaged 5.8 assists versus Memphis, including 10 dimes in a close-out Game 5 performance in which Conley only played 12 minutes before injuring his hamstring. His season average is 5.5 assists an outing, which is exactly where his Game 1 prop total sits.

PREDICTION: Donovan Mitchell assists Over 5.5 (-112)

Clippers vs Jazz betting card

  • Los Angeles +4 (-110)
  • Under 220.5 (-110)
  • Donovan Mitchell assists Over 5.5 (-112)

Picks made on 6/08/2021 at 9:02 a.m. ET

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