The Dallas Mavericks roll into tonight’s contest on fire with 12 wins in their last 14 games, but the team will look a lot different tonight with Luka Doncic ruled out and Kyrie Irving potentially sidelined as well.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Clippers have been one of the NBA’s scrappiest defensive teams this season and I’ll be looking for them to contain a depleted Dallas offense in my Clippers vs. Mavericks predictions.
Here are my best free NBA picks for this matchup on Thursday, December 19.
Clippers vs Mavericks prediction
My best bet
Mavericks Under 114.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
The Dallas Mavericks have been one of the NBA’s elite offensive teams this season, ranking fourth in points per game (119.5), but we could see a much different looking squad in tonight’s matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers.
Luka Doncic has been ruled out with a heel injury while Kyrie Irving is also listed as questionable with a shoulder issue.
Doncic (28.9 ppg) and Irving (23.9 ppg) are the only two players averaging more than 14 points per game for the Mavs, which could obviously deal a huge blow to their scoring upside tonight. In fact, those two account for nearly 45% of the team’s offense.
To make matters worse for the Mavericks, they’ll be up against one of the league’s stingiest teams in the Clippers. L.A. is allowing just 107.8 points per game (5th) and also ranks within the top six in other key defensive categories like opponent three point percentage and defensive rebounding.
The Clips have also held opponents to Under 114.5 points in 10 of their last 14 contests while going 9-5 during that stretch.
The oddsmakers have already dropped the total for tonight’s game significantly with two Mavs stars potentially out and I tend to agree as I don’t think guys like Klay Thompson and P.J. Washington will be able to make up the difference.
Clippers vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Mavericks Under 114.5
Clippers moneyline
Norman Powell Over 3.5 threes made
The books opened with the Mavericks as a 6.5-point favorite but we’ve seen that number come down to around 4 across the board with the news of the injuries. Whether Irving is in or not, I think the Clips have got a good chance of going against the spread here as I think their defensive strengths match up well against the Mavs.
If the Clips are going to pull it off, Norman Powell will have to be a factor offensively. The guard is averaging 3.9 threes per game on 48.4% shooting and has drained 4+ treys in five of his last seven contests.
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Clippers vs Mavericks odds
Clippers vs Mavericks live odds
Clippers vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +4 | Dallas -4
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +150 | Dallas -180
- Over/Under: Over 223.5 | Under 223.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Clippers vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mavericks are favored by 4 or 4.5 points depending where you look, while 72% of bettors are taking Dallas to cover the spread.
- The Clippers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 meetings against the Mavericks in Dallas.
- Tonight’s total opened at 228 points but has fallen to 223.5 across the board. The Under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings between the teams.
Clippers vs Mavericks trend
The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 48 games at home (+16.50 Units / 31% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs Mavericks. Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Clippers vs Mavericks
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-19-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSNSC, KFAA |
Clippers vs Mavericks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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