NBA Finals 2023 Game 2 Jimmy Butler Player Props: Jimmy Buckets Starts Strong

The grind of an improbable NBA Playoffs run showed in Jimmy Butler’s NBA prop performance in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

The Miami Heat’s motor didn’t have the same kick as past series and even his body language and decisions on defense telegraphed the mental and physical fatigue stacking up for Butler and the Heat, facing a fresh Denver Nuggets squad in the NBA Finals.

Butler wrapped Thursday’s series opener with only 13 points on 6-of-14 shooting, which is well below his playoff average of 27.6 points per game, and fell short of his Game 1 points prop of 26.5 O/U. He added seven rebounds (Under 7.5) and seven assists (Over 6.5) but also failed to get to the charity stripe once — a spot in which Butler has made other opponents pay this postseason.

The Heat’s captain took the brunt of the criticism for the Game 1 loss and said all the right things when facing the music from the NBA media. Butler said he needs to be more aggressive against a towering Denver defense.

"I just think I've got to do a better job of getting the ball, demanding the ball, being more aggressive (at the rim)," Butler told reporters. "That's just that, and that will change come Game 2.”

So, what do the NBA Finals odds have in store for Butler for Game 2? I pick through the Game 2 prop bets and give my best Jimmy Butler NBA Finals bets for June 4.

Jimmy Butler Game 2 player prop pick

Jimmy Butler doesn’t blow a lot of smoke. He can walk the walk better than most NBA players and if he says he’s coming out aggressive, then that’s what he’s doing in Game 2.

"They definitely follow suit whenever I'm aggressive on both sides of the ball,” Butler said of setting the tone for his teammates. “So, I have to be the one to come out and kick that off the right way, which I will, and we'll see where we end up."

Butler’s point prop for Game 2 is bouncing between 25.5 and 26.5, depending on where you bet and his player projections really straddle that line, ranging from 25.2 to 27.7 points tonight. When you mix in the vig, it’s tough to find an advantage with that market.

However, if we look at the derivative totals and take Butler for his word, there’s value early into Game 2 if he comes out swinging. Butler’s first-quarter scoring markets have his 1Q total set at 7.5 points, with the Over priced between -104 and -115 depending on your sportsbook options.

He enters Game 2 with the second-highest scoring average in the opening 12 minutes during the 2023 NBA Playoffs, averaging nine points in the opening quarter during the tournament. That’s 32.6% of his total average points in the postseason.

With my full-game projection at 26.19 points for Butler, that first-quarter scoring rate pans out to 8.54 points from him in the opening quarter of Game 2 tonight. And with Butler preaching about setting an aggressive tone early on and attacking the rim, the narrative is there for at least an 8-point start from the Miami Heat star

He put up seven points on 3-for-7 shooting in the first quarter of Game 1 before managing just six more points in the final 36 minutes Thursday. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra is a master of game-to-game adjustments, so Butler could have success exploiting seams in the Nuggets’ defense early on before Denver makes any corrections later in the contest.

My best bet: Jimmy Butler Over 7.5 first-quarter points (-104 at FanDuel)

Heat vs Nuggets Game 2 same-game parlay

Jimmy Butler Over 7.5 first-quarter points (-104)

Jamal Murray Under 26.5 points (-120)

Michael Porter Jr. 1+ block (+115)

+651 at FanDuel

Butler will burst out of the gates and try to energize his team with an aggressive opening frame, scoring more than seven points in the first quarter of Game 2, with my projections at 8.54 points in the first 12 minutes.

Jamal Murray’s player models are bouncing between 22.2 and 27.2 vs. a points prop of 26.5 following his 26-point performance in Game 1. My number sits at 24.22 points from the Nuggets point guard, which gives plenty of headroom for the Under 26.5.

And if you read my NBA props picks piece for Game 2, you’ll see why I’m leaning on Michael Porter Jr. to continue to impact this series on defense. He had two blocks in Game 1 and the 6-foot-10 forward came a fingernail away from more swats against a diminutive Miami lineup. At +115, MPJ to record at least one block in Game 2 is a nice kicker to this SGP.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Heat vs Nuggets Game 2 game info

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