NBA Finals 2023 Game 5 Nikola Jokic Player Props: Pass on Points, Feast on Rebounds and Dimes

If the NBA Finals wrap up with tonight's Game 5, we should take a pause now to appreciate just what we’ve witnessed from Denver Nuggets star center Nikola Jokic.

The two-time MVP has averaged an insane stat line of 30.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, and eight assists per game, giving bettors a buffet of opportunity to cash in on NBA prop bets, and is the runaway favorite to win Finals MVP.

While the Joker’s star shines brightest, the Nuggets have defined “team effort” en route to a 3-1 series lead over the Miami Heat heading into tonight’s Game 5 inside Ball Arena. That said, he’s definitely the stick that stirs the drink — but “stick” would be an understatement.

Jokic is more like the lightsaber, Staff of Ra, or Excalibur that stirs Denver’s drink. And, if oddsmakers are correct with their NBA Game 5 odds, that drink is championship champagne.

Let's savor this, for it may be the last time we get to examine Jokic this season, as I give you my best free NBA picks for Nikola Jokic in Game 5 of the NBA Finals.

Also, check out our Heat vs. Nuggets Game 5 preview and best NBA Game 5 prop picks for tonight.

Nikola Jokic Game 5 player prop pick

Nikola Jokic is a man of few words. When asked about the excitement of closing out the finals in Game 5 and winning a title in front of the Mile High faithful, he didn’t flinch.

"It’s not going to be emotions," Jokic told the press in true T-800 fashion. "It’s going to be a job."

So far, he’s done his job... and then some. And if we’re betting Jokic player props tonight, it’s the “then some” we’re counting on.

His scoring prop sits at a high 29.5 points, while player projections call for about 26.5 points in Game 5. However, taking the Under on Jokic points is one of the more painful processes to put yourself through, especially with Denver Nuggets coach Michael Malone showing no chill with his star players — even when the Nuggets were comfortably ahead.

So instead of points, we’re strolling to the combo stats prop and looking at Jokic’s rebounds + assists totals. This market is sitting at 22.5 Over/Under with the Over as low as -110. The Serbian sensation has a rebound prop of 12.5 (-125) and an assist total of 9.5 (-135) with the Over for those options juiced as high as -147 at some shops.

Player modeling for assists from the Nuggets center ranges, with lows of 9.4 and highs of 10.7 dimes, and my number sits just shy of 10 assists (at 9.98 helpers) tonight. Jokic has been up-and-down with his assist output in the first four games, managing only four in Games 2 and 4 while serving up 10 and 14 in the other two outings — although he recorded only four assists in the last game, he had a dozen potential assists, according to NBA.com.

We can offset some of that uncertainty around 9.5 assists by combining it with his rebounding efforts. Jokic has actually stayed Under his rebound total in three of the first four games, save for a 21-rebound showcase in Game 3. His totals have bounced between 11.5 and 13.5 boards with tonight’s number in the middle.

Mainstream models all call for more than 12.5 rebounds from Jokic in Game 5, with a ceiling of 15 boards from some projections. My number is a bit tempered but sits at 13.5 rebounds as the series swings back to Denver.

The Miami Heat’s sharp shooting has been dulled the past two games, making just 40.6% from the field — which includes a 31.7% clip from beyond the arc. The Nuggets have outrebounded the Heat 92-70 in those contests, with Jokic responsible for wrangling 36% of those boards.

Given my forecast for assists and rebounds, Jokic is pegged for 23.5 combo stats against that prop total of 22.5 (Over -110). Closing out a feisty Miami squad in Game 5 won’t be easy but if Jokic does his job dishing out dimes and rounding up rebounds, the Nuggets are on the championship path.

My best bet: Nikola Jokic Over 22.5 rebounds + assists (-110)

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Game 5 same-game parlay

Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds -135

Michael Porter Jr. Over 10.5 Points -135

Aaron Gordon Over 6.5 Rebounds -120

+450 at DraftKings

When it comes to Jokic's player projections, there’s a bigger gap between the 12.5-rebound total and what we’re seeing from forecasts. My number was 13.5... but some are calling for closer to 15 boards tonight.

If you read my Heat vs. Nuggets Game 5 picks and predictions piece, you’ll know I’m gritting my teeth and going back to the Over on Michael Porter Jr. points at 10.5. After MPJ went Under his scoring prop in all four games, this market has trimmed as much as six points since the start of the series. His player projections are all still at 12.5-plus  with some flirting with 17 points tonight.

Another bet I like is Over on Aaron Gordon's rebounds. He was an active part of the offense in Game 4, shooting the ball a playoff-high 15 times yet still snatching seven rebounds. I don’t see him taking as many shots tonight, which means he’ll be battling under the boards. Models range from 6.5 to 8.3 with my number at seven.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Game 5 game info

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