The Milwaukee Bucks cruised to a 120-100 win over the Phoenix Suns in Game 3 of the NBA Finals and will look to even up the series on Wednesday.
Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo entered the finals with plenty of question marks due to a knee injury but has been crushing his NBA betting player props, and the Over/Under on his points total for Game 4 has been set at a whopping 34.5.
We analyze whether that number is too high in our best free Suns vs. Bucks NBA Finals prop picks and predictions for Game 4 on July 14.
Suns vs Bucks game info
• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Wednesday, July 14, 2021
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Suns vs Bucks player prop picks
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Points Under 34.5 (-115)
- Khris Middleton Over 5.5 assists (+104)
- Chris Paul Under 4.5 rebounds (-144)
(Read on for complete analysis.)
Suns vs Bucks player prop picks analysis
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 34.5 Points (-115)
Antetokounmpo was listed as doubtful for Game 1 and after suiting up and scoring 20 points the Over/Under on his points total for Game 2 was set at 26.5. He ended up scoring 42 points in that contest and followed that up with a 41-point performance on Sunday, which has seen the O/U on his points total soar all the way up to 34.5 for Game 4.
Despite his incredible last two games, Giannis typically hasn't been surpassing that points plateau during the playoffs. The Greek Freak has scored fewer than 34.5 points in 13 of his last 14 games prior to that knee injury suffered against the Hawks (although he did score exactly 34 points in four of those contests).
Over the last two games, he has also taken a whopping 35 free throw attempts but averaged a more modest 8.3 free throw attempts per game in the playoffs prior to that. That volume of getting to the charity stripe simply isn't sustainable long term.
If Phoenix center Deandre Ayton can stay out of foul trouble then the Suns will be better equipped to keep Giannis in check — even if they can't shut him down outright. Take the Under on Antetokounmpo's lofty points total.
Khris Middleton Over 5.5 assists (+104)
Milwaukee's Khris Middleton has earned a reputation as one of the league's best three-and-D players but the two-time All-Star has really rounded out his game. Middleton finished his regular season with a career-high 5.4 assists per game and has been dropping dimes in the playoffs as well.
The Bucks wing had six assists and just two turnovers in Game 3 on Sunday. In six of his last eight games, he has racked up at least six assists, averaging 6.6 apg over that span.
With the Over/Under on his assists total set at 5.5 for Game 4 and the Over paying out at plus money, take the Over.
Chris Paul Under 4.5 rebounds (-144)
Chris Paul has arguably been the Suns' most important player this year. The 11-time All-Star has taken a promising squad and pushed it to the league's elite thanks to his outstanding ball-handling, passing, scoring, and defending abilities.
However, there is one area where CP3 doesn't really impact the game. That's on the boards, where he has logged four or fewer rebounds in eight straight games.
Paul is coming off a Game 3 performance where he didn't grab a single rebound and with the O/U on his rebounds set at 4.5, we're paying the -144 juice and taking the Under.
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NBA Finals player prop picks, you could win $54.62 on a $10 bet?
Use our NBA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on the NBA?
You can bet on NBA odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NBA moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of NBA prop odds. Head over to our best sportsbooks for NBA betting in your area.
