2023-24 NBA Futures Picks & Fades: Giannis Freaks Out in MVP Race

Winter sucks.

Freezing wind. Shoveling snow. Salt getting all over your Air Maxes. There isn't a ton to be pumped about. 

If you're an NBA fan though, all isn't lost, with the perfect excuse to huddle yourself away in a blanket cocoon enjoying hoops while the abyss of black ice and fender-benders rages on outside. It also presents an opportunity to make some extra cash.

The 2023-24 season's looking like another awesome one, with the ripples of two blockbuster trades still violently shaking the league's foundation as training camps open. There could still be several dominoes to fall, making the NBA odds tough to sort, and storylines increasingly compelling.

Last year, I sorted through the major NBA futures markets with my best picks and fades. I stung the MVP, ROY, and NBA Finals winners for a fairly large return, so my bosses decided to turn me loose on this column again this season to see if I can make sense what's happening around the NBA this October.

There's a lot to process, so I'll cut to the chase — here are my best NBA predictions for 2023-24 futures.

NBA futures odds picks and fades for 2023-24

The picks below are what I see as the best value for each respective market. These aren't necessarily who I think will win, but given the price, are most likely to produce a +EV result. 

All odds listed as of October 4, 2023.

NBA championship odds

NBA Finals futures picks

Favorite championship pick: Boston Celtics (+400 at DraftKings)

So ya, here we are, kicking off the piece being peak YOLO and taking the outright NBA title odds favorite. Really daring stuff.

I do believe that the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, and Denver Nuggets are in a tier of their own, and at first glance, would be considered an upset losing to any other team (with the possible exception of the Suns if their stars can stay healthy, their patchwork bench overachieves, and Jusuf Nurkic isn't completely cooked — lots of ifs).

The margins between these three are dental-floss-thin, and while I thought the Bucks inched ahead of the Nuggets with the Damian Lillard trade (the dual gravity he and Giannis Antetokounmpo will combine to form is going to be f***ing terrifying), the Celtics now seem to be balancing their top-heavy rotation with depth slightly better after landing Milwaukee refugee Jrue Holiday. 

Holiday may be the only player in the league who's a functional upgrade over Marcus Smart on both sides of the ball, and the tertiary perimeter scoring he'll bring to the Celtics make him overqualified as a fourth option. Boston also armed itself with the perfect counter for the Bucks' Lillard move — one that famously authored Dame's worst playoff performance ever.

Losing Robert Williams sucks, but his mere availability was a constant unknown. And while Kristaps Porzingis brings his own red flags injury-wise, he's coming off his healthiest season in a half-decade, and it's unlikely someone as shrewd as Brad Stevens would have broken up an inches-from-title roster on a complete gamble.

We know what brilliance we're getting from Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, while having the flexibility to bring either Al Horford or Derrick White off the bench and go big-to-small as matchups demand is a huge luxury. 

Milwaukee will be dangerous; there's plenty of reason to Fear the Deer. But I think the Celtics answer questions about depth and two-way play just a bit better than the Bucks, and that Joe Mazzulla will have learned some lessons from last season's playoff miscues. 

Again, super close here, but give me the Celts. 

Underdog championship pick: Memphis Grizzlies (+3,000 at BetMGM)

Call me a homer here, that's cool. I can take the heat. Telling me that the Memphis Grizzlies are less likely to win the title than the Mavericks this season, and over twice as unlikely as the Warriors, seems dubious. 

Memphis' last two seasons have ended in Ja Morant-related disappointment — 2022 due to his injury against the eventual-champion Dubs, and 2023? Well, I think we're all aware of what happened there. 

His momentary stupidity aside, Morant is a fierce competitor and loyal teammate, and I feel as though the character concerns drowning the media during his "Justify My Thug" tour last season were a bit overblown. I'm willing to bet heavily that he realizes what's at stake, and rejoins this team with an extra chip on his shoulder, leaving the nonsense behind. 

In his absence, Memphis has a functional PG corps leading a team of overachievers that will almost certainly keep the Grizz afloat in his absence. While wing depth issues remain, Memphis has several players who could make a leap and assume more minutes, and assets to trade for an upgrade as well (reminder: GM Zach Kleiman's probably a Top-3 trading GM). Meanwhile, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. can use Morant's absence to truly grow as household names. 

The glue holding this all together is Steven Adams, who's likely to make an early-season return. Between his offensive rebounding, bone-crunching screens, and excellent playmaking from the high post, Adams was, fit-wise, one of the league's most underrated players last season, and his demise had lots to do with the Grizzlies fading down the stretch. Add in the possible freeroll of Brandon Clarke's return, and there's plenty of potential in Memphis.

There's a lot of Morant doubt baked into this price, and I think that public perception belies just how much more upside this team has than franchises like the Heat or Mavericks they're priced alongside. Memphis is well-coached, has a smart front office, and a roster teeming with talent that should be ready to make its move when Morant returns.

Fade: Philadelphia 76ers (+2,200 at bet365)

The Philadelphia 76ers are widely varying in his market, priced anywhere from +1,800  to +3,000, and while I'd be vaguely tempted to sprinkle on them at the longer odds, anything in the +2,000 or lower range is a hard no for me. 

The reasons are simple:

• Their best player's body seemingly shuts down halfway into every playoff run.
• Their second-best player publicly called their GM a liar and said he doesn't want to play on the team anymore.
• Their direct competitors in the East both got demonstrably better, while the Sixers basically did nothing.

This team's season will ultimately be decided by the return of the James Harden trade, how well incoming players meshe with Joel Embiid (and if he's healthy come May), and whether Tyrese Maxey can make another mini-leap absorbing Harden's vacated touches. 

If all those variables break right, Philly could conceivably beat Boston or Milwaukee in a seven-game series. But especially given the homecourt the Harden standoff and Embiid rest will almost certainly concede, the Sixers are likely staring at a super-uncomfortable summer of 2024.

NBA MVP futures picks

Favorite MVP pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo (+550 at DraftKings)

Giannis is going to have an absolutely monster season. Not only is Lillard the best teammate the Greek Freak has ever played with, he's perfectly tailored to create space and make it next-to-impossible for opposing defenses to wall off the paint. You just can't with such an automatic shooting threat lurking. 

The concerns about Giannis' efficiency in the half court are about to disappear; not only will he continue to put up cartoonish numbers, he'll do so on better clips, able to operate more as a roll man and out of the dunker spot rather than initiating the offense. Don't be surprised if his turnover rates dip as well.

And the Bucks are going to run roughshod over the rest of the NBA, perhaps more so in the regular season, where the sheer force of Giannis and Lillard will overpower bad teams. This could easily be a 60-win squad. There's also the possibility of the Bucks' offense-heavy focus begetting more firefights (read: more possessions to pad popcorn stats), now less able to strain opponent possessions on defense with Holiday gone.

Speaking of defense, Giannis is going to have to shine there more, his role as a roving disruptor never more important to the Bucks' title hopes. And with the energy he'll save not having to be a 1-on-3 battering ram every offensive set, the positive effects will be apparent. 

In a season where no consensus NBA MVP odds favorite exists, Giannis likely has the greatest upside of the top contending tier.

Watch this moment from last season’s All-Star Draft.

Giannis picks Dame with his first pick instead of Jrue. LeBron smells fish and calls it out. pic.twitter.com/I1nQW9uwfj

— Rob Perez (@WorldWideWob) September 27, 2023

Underdog MVP pick: Devin Booker (+1,800 at FanDuel)

Back when the Phoenix Suns were getting dismantled by the Nuggets in the second round of the 2023 Playoffs, Kevin Durant was not his team's best player.

Now, this wasn't because Durant wasn't playing well or anything. While he went ice-cold from three, he still averaged 29/10/5 on passable overall shooting. No, this was because Devin Booker went completely freaking nuclear, including an incredulous 47 points on 20-25 shooting in Game 4.

Grabbing the torch like that in the playoffs from a Top-15 all-time player who's basically still in his prime takes a lot of moxie, and is indicative of where Booker's at in his evolution. About to enter his age-27 season — roughly the beginning of his peak by traditional arcs — Book has all the makings of an MVP sleeper pick. 

He's going to score a buttload of points this season, and probably do so very efficiently since it's going to be a nightmare for anyone to double-team him with Durant and Bradley Beal a pass away. Speaking of passing, Phoenix is proceeding, at this point, without a nominal point guard in its rotation, meaning Booker's playmaking will be leaned on even more, adding another dimension to his value. 

And Phoenix will be a juggernaut if it stays healthy, likely a Top-2 seed in the West, which will more or less cement Booker in the MVP discussion. What gets him over the top? A historic offensive season from the Suns while Durant fails to reach the new 65-game minimum for awards finalists. It's not exactly a pipe dream. 

Looking at the rest of this tier of contenders, it's littered with guys who are question marks for rest and injury (Durant, Steph Curry, Anthony Davis, LeBron James) and guys whose teams have somewhere between a shaky (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) and absolutely zero (Trae Young) chance of being good enough for MVP contention. 

Booking Book seems like the safest bet here. 

Fade: Joel Embiid (+850 at Caesars), Anthony Edwards (+3,000 at DraftKings)

Some might see it as bold to fade the reigning MVP, but it's tough to see Joel Embiid taking another trophy, especially when Nikola Jokic already made Embiid's win age like a hasty Skip Bayless take over the subsequent two months. 

Regular-season award as it may be, there was plenty of "maybe Jokic should've won" discourse in the mediasphere last summer, which could be creating Embiid (+850 at Caesars) inverse-inertia before the season even begins. 

When the season does begin, the 76ers' second-best player will be, in bluntly familiar fashion, trying to get himself traded, immediately creating more distraction and forcing Embiid to pivot around new personnel midseason, whenever a deal gets made. 

There are also the constant health concerns, and if Embiid — whose body seemingly fails him every spring — is going to avoid injury and rest enough to qualify for the 65-game minimum, which is no certainty. 

Add up all those question marks, and it's a no for me at this price. 

As for Anthony Edwards, the argument is more straightforward: The Timberwolves just aren't good enough. There are very few worlds where Minnesota gets a Top-3 seed in the West, as it's far more likely to land in the 6-10 range. And, as has been proven time and again, you need to have an otherworldly season statistically, narrative-wise, or both, to win MVP without a Top-3 seed. Regardless of his seemingly imminent superstardom, do we really think that's what's on deck for Ant?

Folks might be tempted to sprinkle on him (+3,000 at DraftKings) after a very loud summer for Team USA, but I feel like the chances of him actually winning are virtually zero. 

Other NBA futures picks for 2023-24 awards

Rookie of the Year pick: Chet Holmgren (+350 at BetRivers)

Fading Victor Wembanyama has seemed trendy post-Summer League, and while I'm still split on what his actual initial impact will be, I do think he'll be load-managed, making it tough for him to qualify if even the mildest injury strikes. 

That leaves us with the field, although not with as much value as when Wemby opened around -330 in this market. Chet Holmgren not only looks like a tantalizing prospect, but he'll be plugged directly into a system that needs his strengths, and, unlike many rookies, with a chance to contribute on a winner, with proven talent that will prevent him from having to play outside his comfort zone.

Holmgren's also got a very diverse skill set, and can contribute in a number of ways. Even if his capable jumper isn't falling, he can be an excellent roll guy. Even if he's being fronted by a good defender, he can pass on the move. His rim protection will speak for itself, and will give the OKC Thunder a whole layer entirely absent last season. With such a vast potential canvas, Chet will never be pigeonholed into just one role. 

Scoot Henderson's Rookie of the Year odds are another temping pick here, but rookie PGs are so often inefficient, and dealing with the low expectations, roster churn, and general inexperience of the Blazers will present unavoidable struggles.

People seem to forget just how touted a prospect Chet was. After a season on the shelf, he'll be ready to remind them. 

Defensive Player of the Year pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. (+600 at DraftKings) 

I hate to go again with the outright favorite, but Jaren Jackson Jr. still represents Defensive Player of the Year odds potential in my opinion. 

The obvious elephant in the room is that he looked pretty bad in the FIBA World Cup, playing under a rule set he had no experience with, without an enforcer, against burly European brutes whom the international game favors for several reasons. It was understandable. 

But given that Jackson received a summer of apex coaching and scrimmaging, it's natural to expect him to come back to Memphis capable of another leap — something not entirely uncommon among recent Team USA rookies. That compounds what's still plenty of natural upside to be realized; Jackson's barely 24 years old.

If this is the season the Block Panther ratchets his fouling down even a little, his stocks numbers will be beyond what any other player can keep up with, and his already-stacked advanced metrics portfolio speaks for itself. Better yet, if the Grizzlies overperform during Morant's suspension (which I think they will), Jackson's D is sure to get a ton of the credit, building in a narrative from the jump. 

Also, on a historical level, it's not at all uncommon for repeat winners in DPOY, comprising over half of the award's 41 years of recipients. Once a guy ascends to the league's apex, he usually sticks around for a while. 

If we grade JJJ's last season as his floor — and we should for a number of reasons, remember he also missed the first month-plus — he should be priced as a solo favorite.

Most Improved Player pick: Jordan Poole (+2,000 at BetMGM)

A big part of me wishes I could write this article in the summer — when the markets open and value is often the best, but months before people will care enough to search for or read this article.

Since July, I've watched Jordan Poole not-so-slowly creep up the MIP odds boards at most books after opening north of +2,000. While he's trading as low as +1,000 at some major outlets, BetMGM has either been slow to react, or not felt the handle other shops have, still listing him at +2,000.

I don't think Poole should be an outright favorite for this award, but this type of value simply cannot be ignored, when such massive price discrepancies exist, and there's so little competition for shots with the Wizard Party. 

"How green is your green light?"

Jordan Poole: *eyebrow raise* ????

"As green as DC. I like it." (He was referring to parks and trees greenery earlier, not other stuff).

"Coach is giving me the opportunity to be me, play freely. I think that will be really exciting." pic.twitter.com/Js1LFujlkj

— Hoop District (@Hoop_District) October 2, 2023

He's going to have allllll the opportunity in Washington this year. Kyle Kuzma is your second option? Like, who else is commanding shots on this roster? It doesn't hurt that Poole's sharing a backcourt with a pass-first PG who never turns the ball over, or that the Wizards have every expectation of being awful this year and will be cool with him shamelessly chucking.

The sheer volume Poole's about to be embraced with is only compounded by being free of the Warriors' system's shackles — which never really fit his game. That and having video of a franchise icon wrecking his face in practice get leaked right before the season.

Suffice to say, Poole should benefit from the change of scenery and will have every chance to redeem his career arc, and then some.

Sixth Man of the Year pick: Chris Paul (+2,000 at FanDuel)

You'd think I'd have learned my damn lesson here.

Last season, I chose to ignore the reports coming out of Heat camp that Tyler Herro was going to start, made him my preseason pick to repeat as 6MOY at what I saw as inflated value, and watched the pick completely blow up in my face, ruining what was otherwise a very strong handicap of the preseason markets.

Well, as many a stubborn gambler has before me, I'm heading back to that damn well. 

I don't think Chris Paul's going to be starting for the Golden State Warriors long past Thanksgiving. Sure, they'll try to make it work at first with Draymond Green sidelined, but it throws the team's defensive alignment off-kilter, forcing Stephen Curry to chase bigger two-guards, and Klay Thompson (who has lost multiple steps as a defender) to contend with opposing forwards. 

It also implicitly takes the ball out of Curry's hands — usually a bad thing — and while Steph's an awesome off-ball gravity threat, I still feel CP3's talents on offense are far better served staggered with Chef, directing a second unit that looked completely lost when Curry sat last year, and absolutely hemorrhaged points. 

Steve Kerr's a smart man and knows this, so while he'll try and placate Paul with a starting spot initially, I think he'll be able to sell CP3 on the "it's not who starts games, but who finishes them" mantra, unlocking a ton of value for his potential 6MOY odds candidacy at this price. 

Coach of the Year pick: Rick Carlisle (+2,500 at DraftKings)

I'll say less about the Coach of the Year odds because the award is typically more of a crapshoot, and more highly predicated on a coach exceeding expectations or overcoming curveballs in the form of injury or major trade (ie: exactly the kind of things that don't lend themselves to preseason odds). 

I'll tend to aim a bit lower on the board with any Coach of the Year pick I'm making, as we're far more likely to see value realized, and Carlisle — about as proven and respected a bench boss as exists in the NBA — feels very slept-on at this price, especially given his surroundings. 

The Indiana Pacers are a trendy sleeper pick as a team on the come-up right now, and in an Eastern Conference where NBA win totals could fluctuate wildly with a pecking order that isn't defined at all outside the Top 6, the Pacers are exactly the kind of squad that could make a collective leap and break into the playoff picture under Tyrese Haliburton and Carlisle's direction. It would come as a mild surprise to most, but that's what this award can very much be about at times. 

Seeing Slick Rick priced this far down the board came as a bit of a shock, and I'm all-too-happy to take these odds.

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