Grizzlies vs Celtics Picks and Predictions: Jackson, Williams Ensure Low-Scoring Tilt

While today might be dominated by the NFL, for the NBA diehards there’s still an incredible matchup scheduled between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Boston Celtics, two of the top contenders in the Association. 

Despite all the teams around the NBA loading up at the trade deadline, the Celtics remain the odds-on NBA title favorite. They’re a bit bruised and battered right now, but they’ll still be a stiff opponent for a Grizzlies team that has wobbled to a 3-7 record over its last 10 games.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Grizzlies vs. Celtics expect a low-scoring game on Sunday, February 12.

Grizzlies vs Celtics best odds

Grizzlies vs Celtics picks and predictions

The Grizzlies and the Celtics are two of the Top 5 defenses in the NBA, which is why this total opened at a seemingly-low 229.5. But it isn’t low enough, mostly for two reasons. One is the combined presence of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Robert Williams III.

To my mind, Jackson and Williams are the two most impactful per-minute defenders in the NBA. Jackson’s 3.3 blocks per game would lead the NBA by a mile if he had played enough games to qualify for the leaderboard, while Williams is the key to the entire Celtics' defensive scheme. It all comes down to the ever-increasing importance of backside rim protection.

Shots at the rim are still the lifeblood of any healthy offense. The recent explosion in scoring in the NBA, seemingly driven by the increase in 3-point volume, has actually been the result of increased volume and efficiency at the rim. Because teams are valuing spacing more than ever, there are more frequent and better opportunities to score at the rim than ever before.

That’s why players like Williams and Jackson are so valuable and can have such a massive impact on the game despite being low-scoring players themselves. While only a handful of possessions in a game end in an actual block by either player, opposing offenses are prevented from taking the best shots in basketball every second they are on the court.

Their mere presence would make me strongly favor the Under, but the other key factor is when this game is taking place. Due to the desire to not counter-program the Super Bowl, Grizzlies vs. Celtics tips off at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Never underestimate the impact that a matinee game can have on an NBA player. Matinee games are notoriously slow, sluggish affairs, and the reason is quite simple. For the most part, NBA players are nocturnal by nature. NBA games may finish as late as 1:00 am local time, but players' nights have barely begun. They frequently have physical therapy in addition to media availability, followed sometimes by all-night travel. 

Most NBA players are up at hours of the night that even dedicated night owls would find odd. So when the NBA schedule switches up on them like it has today to make way for the Super Bowl, it can have a noticeable impact. That impact mostly comes on the offensive end. When routines are disrupted, offense suffers the most.

With Williams and Jackson preventing anything easy at the basket, and both teams likely not as sharp as they would be usually, I like the Under as my best bet on the board.

My best bet: Under 229.5 (-110 at Betway)

Grizzlies vs Celtics spread analysis

While I consider both the Grizzlies and Celtics to be legitimate contenders for the title this season, there’s really no question as to who has been playing better basketball recently. While the Grizzlies have won two in a row, they’ve been on a serious skid ever since Steven Adams exited the lineup. 

Critically, those two recent wins came at home, and they’ve struggled a lot more away from their own barn. Memphis is now just 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road, and only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games against opponents with a home winning percentage above .600.

The Celtics are missing key contributors in Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart, but they are still finding ways to win, and in dominant fashion no less. They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, but more impressively, they have a +11.8 point differential in that same span. 

Over the last two weeks, they’ve outperformed the spread by an average of 3.9 points per game, while Memphis is underperforming by 1.1 per contest, per Cleaning the Glass. While Ja Morant has been dynamite recently, the overall Memphis offense has been playing at a Bottom-10 level. I’d lean towards Celtics covering at -4.

Grizzlies vs Celtics Over/Under analysis

In addition to the fatigue factor and the presence of the NBA’s top two defensive players, there are a number of strong trends that also favor a low-scoring game. Memphis has seen their offense continue to struggle recently, as their 113.4 rating over the last two weeks would be 10th-worst in the NBA. That’s contributed to the Under going 5-1 in Grizzlies' last six games on the road, as well as 9-2 in their last 11 overall.

The Grizzlies' recent trade for Luke Kennard was an indication that they realize their offense needs more threes to be successful. As of right now, they’re Bottom-6 in 3-point attempt rate, which reduces the variability of their offense quite a bit. Still, rest (or lack thereof) has noticeably impacted their offense in previous games, as the Under is also 6-0 in the Grizzlies' last six games playing on a single day of rest.

The Celtics are missing two of their best offensive players in Brown and Smart, and Jayson Tatum has had trouble finishing against elite rim protectors like Jackson. They’ve also doubled down on their defense following games where they’ve given up triple-digits. That’s seen the Under go 8-3 in Boston’s last 11 games after allowing 100 points or more in the previous game.

Grizzlies vs Celtics betting trend to know

The Under is 9-2 in the Grizzlies' last 11 overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Celtics.

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