Two of the top teams in the Western Conference will face off for the second time this month as the Houston Rockets host the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night.
Houston has had the better of this matchup this season, and I’m taking it to cover again in my Grizzlies vs. Rockets predictions.
Read on to see my full analysis of tonight’s game in my free NBA picks for Monday, January 13.
Grizzlies vs Rockets prediction
My best bet
Rockets -1.5 (-150 at bet365)
My analysis
The Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies just met in Memphis on January 9 — in fact, that’s the last game Houston has played before tonight — and the action played out much in the same way we’ve seen between these two teams over the past couple of seasons. The Rockets rode big games from Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green to a 119-115 road win over one of their chief Western Conference rivals.
That win made the Rockets 2-0 against Memphis this year, as well as 5-1 against the Grizzlies over the past two seasons. Houston is also 5-1 ATS during that stretch.
While much has been made of the young combination of Green and Sengun, and how the young duo is starting to mesh on the offensive end of the court, Houston’s real edge in this matchup comes on defense. The Rockets are allowing just 107.1 ppg on the season, and are third in the NBA in defensive rating (107.0). Opponents are shooting just 44.4% from the floor against Houston, and the Rockets have been successful at chasing shooters off the three-point line, as opponents are shooting 34.8 threes per game against them – the second-lowest average in the NBA.
That’s allowed Houston to stifle Memphis in a way few other teams have been able to do this season. The Grizzlies are averaging 123.0 ppg — the highest mark in the NBA — behind varied scoring threats like Jaren Jackson Jr. (22.9 ppg), Ja Morant (21.0 ppg), and Desmond Bane (16.8 ppg).
Houston hasn’t been able to stop the Grizzlies from scoring, but they have contained the Memphis offense effectively enough to get wins. Memphis has been able to score at least 125 points four times in their last nine outings, while the Rockets have held the Grizzlies to 115 points or less in five of their six meetings over the past two years, with Memphis averaging only 105.8 ppg in those games.
The Grizzlies haven’t shown that they can match that defensive intensity, and that has made the difference in these contests. Nothing about that dynamic has changed heading into Monday’s game, and the Rockets will also have the advantage of playing at home tonight. I’m trusting what I’ve seen between these two teams, and taking Houston to cover.
Grizzlies vs Rockets same-game parlay
Rockets -1.5
Jalen Green Over 21.5 points
Alperen Sengun 20+ points
I like the Rockets to cover at home tonight, and I’m counting on their best two scorers to guide them to victory. That starts with Jalen Green, who I’m taking to hit the Over on his scoring prop of 21.5 points. Green has hit that total in five straight games and has averaged 24.5 ppg in his two games against Memphis this year.
I’m being only slightly more conservative on Alperen Sengun, who I’m taking to score 20+ points tonight. The center has put up at least 26 points in each of his last two games and is averaging 24.0 ppg against the Grizzlies, but isn’t quite as consistent a scorer as Green, so I’d rather play him on the slightly lower scoring total to bring home our SGP.
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Grizzlies vs Rockets odds
Grizzlies vs Rockets live odds
Grizzlies vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: Memphis +2.5 | Houston -2.5
- Moneyline: Memphis +122 | Houston -138
- Over/Under: Over 236 | Under 236
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Grizzlies vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Grizzlies have put up a 25-14 ATS record on the year, while the Rockets have gone 22-15 ATS.
- Houston is 2-0 straight up and ATS against Memphis this season.
- The Rockets are an even 18-18-1 against the total this year. The Over has a 23-14-2 advantage when the Grizzlies have played this season.
- Memphis is playing to an average total of 238.1 ppg, while Houston has averaged a total of 120.2 ppg.
Grizzlies vs Rockets trend
The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Grizzlies. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Rockets.
How to watch Grizzlies vs Rockets
| Location: | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Monday, 1-13-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
Grizzlies vs Rockets latest injuries
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