Grizzlies vs Timberwolves Picks and Predictions: Grizz Come Roaring Out of All-Star Break

Two upstarts in the suddenly-vulnerable Western Conference face off Thursday night when the Minnesota Timberwolves host the Memphis Grizzlies. 

Both sides have had encouraging seasons that have exceeded expectations, but our Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves NBA picks and predictions think the books are being too generous to one of them. 

Read on to find out the best angles for betting this February 24 matchup.

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Memphis hit the books in a widely scattered manner, listed anywhere from a 1.5-point dog to a 2.5-point favorite, and is between -2.5 and -3.5 as of Thursday morning. That total opened at 239 and has been bet up to 239.5 in some spots.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves predictions

• Prediction: Grizzlies -2.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 239 (-110)
• Best bet: Adams Over 13.5 rebs + asts (+102)

Predictions made on 2/24/2022 at 7:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves game info

• Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
• Date: Thursday, February 24, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: BSSE, BSN

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves betting preview

Key injuries

Grizzlies: Dillon Brooks SF (Out).
Timberwolves: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Grizzlies are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves.

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The fact that some books opened Memphis as an underdog in this game is legitimately hilarious. 

Yes, the Wolves are a markedly improved team overall this season and went into the All-Star break on a 7-3 run to give themselves a clear upper hand in the West play-in race. 

But Memphis is within striking distance of a Top-2 seed and is the NBA's best team against the spread this season at 40-20. The Grizzlies sport a Top-10 rating on both sides of the ball, meaning they can beat teams in a number of ways, and have the league's fifth-best net rating overall.

Minnesota has a couple of key matchup edges in this game: namely the ability to stick irritant Patrick Beverley on Ja Morant at the point of attack and have Karl-Anthony Towns either drag Steven Adams out to the perimeter or rumble on the block with Jaren Jackson Jr. if Memphis decides to go small. 

But Beverley has lost a step since his prime, and the Grizzlies are the type of deep team that can derive a balanced offense even on Morant's rare off nights, or when he's out of the lineup entirely. Meanwhile, Jackson's rebounding with improved toughness, and has evolved into one of the league's straight-up best rim protectors, as evidenced by his presence near the top of the Defensive Player of the Year odds table. 

The Grizzlies are a take-no-prisoners type of team that has been thrashing books' expectations all season. Clearly, there's some sort of public or industry perception that a regression is coming if a team like the T-Wolves can still open as a favorite at multiple sportsbooks. 

But Memphis is talented, deep as hell, well-coached, and still full of upside. It's looked like one of the three or four best teams in the NBA since early December, and assuming otherwise is highly speculative.

Minnesota blew Memphis out 138-95 back on November 20, an anomaly that can widely be considered a turning point in the Grizzlies' season. This is a completely different team than the one that took the floor that night, and one we need some fairly damning evidence to start fading.

A one-possession spread against the Wolves is not that. And if you're one of those "they're on the road!" stans, Memphis is 22-8 ATS away from FedExForum this season. 

Prediction: Grizzlies -2.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

It's easy to look at a total like 239 and get a little queasy. Counting on both teams to flirt with the 120-point plateau is a sketchy proposition, but there isn't a better duo in the NBA to do right now than the Grizz and Wolves. 

Memphis and Minnesota are the NBA's two highest-scoring teams over the past 10 games, averaging a combined 244.3 points per.

Over that same sample, Minnesota is the league's fastest-paced team, while Memphis clocks in just behind at fifth, meaning this game is highly liable to turn into a two-way track meet.

Memphis thrives in transition and leads the NBA in fast-break points, while Minnesota forces the league's most opponent turnovers, so there's great potential for us to see a ton of back-and-forth chaos leading to quick buckets.

Compound the above matchup dynamic with the fact that these teams haven't played in almost a week, and we're damn near guaranteed to see fresh legs push a high-octane tempo that favors a shootout. At the rate these two are currently running, we can only suggest an Over, even against a daunting total. 

Prediction: Over 239 (-110)

Best bet

One particular stat to note: Memphis leads the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage, while the Wolves concede the NBA's fifth-most offensive rebounds per game. 

This is crucial for Steven Adams, the NBA's leading offensive rebounder by a fairly wide margin. Not only is Adams a burly body with elite positioning, but he's also an absolute non-threat from distance that will be available to crash the O-glass on every possession, and the veteran soldier does so with rugged discipline. 

Adams has grabbed double-digit boards in five of seven February games, and Memphis has taken advantage of his criminally underrated passing by using him more as a playmaking cog in the high post on cuts from the baseline and weakside wing. Adams is averaging 4.7 assists per game in February, putting his rebounds + assists average at 15.6 this month. 

Tonight, we find his O/U prop at 13.5 against one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, and one that's liable to engage Memphis in a hyper-paced game that pads stats of all varieties. Count on Adams to go to war in the trenches. 

Pick: Steven Adams Over 13.5 rebounds + assists (+102)

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