Hawks vs Mavericks Picks and Predictions: Defense, Slowed Pace Wins Out vs. Wounded Hawks

The Atlanta Hawks and Dallas Mavericks tipped off the 2021-22 NBA betting campaign against each other way back in October and now add the second part of their non-conference competition inside the American Airlines Center on Sunday.

Dallas, which lost that first meeting by 26 points, is searching for consistency after a hard-fought win over Philadelphia on Friday snapped a two-game snag. As for Atlanta, it's on the road for just the third time in the past dozen games, most recently falling at Toronto on Friday. 

Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Hawks at Mavericks on February 6.

Hawks vs Mavericks odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Dallas opened as a 2.5-point home favorite while the Over/Under total hit the board at 218.5 points and jumped quickly to as high as 221.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Hawks vs Mavericks predictions

• Prediction: Mavericks -2.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 221 (-110)
• Best bet: Brunson Over 25.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)

Predictions made on 2/6/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Hawks vs Mavericks game info

• Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
• Date: Sunday, February 6, 2022
• Tip-off: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Hawks vs Mavericks betting preview

Key injuries

Hawks: John Collins F (Questionable), Lou Williams G (Questionable), Danilo Gallinari F (Questionable).
Mavericks: Tim Hardaway G (Out), G (Out), Kristaps Porzingis F (Out), Sterling Brown G (Out), Maxi Kleber F (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 37-14-1 in Mavericks’ last 52 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Mavericks.

Hawks vs Mavericks picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Hawks have been one of the better teams since the calendar flipped to 2022 but a lot of that success has to do with a very favorable schedule that has sent the team away from home only twice since January 15. That recent slate has been absent of consecutive road games as well, as Sunday’s trip to Dallas will be the first time the Hawks have played two straight as visitors since January 9.

Atlanta runs into a Mavericks side coming off an impressive performance against the 76ers, grinding out a 107-98 victory despite missing key contributors in the front court for that matchup with MVP frontrunner Joel Embiid. Dallas got roughed up inside but played great on-ball defense and leaned on a methodical pace to limit Philadelphia’s possessions.

With injuries to bigger forwards Kristaps Porzingis and Maxi Kleber, the Mavs have gone with a smaller lineup that features 6-foot-6 tweener Reggie Bullock. He gives Dallas some punch on both ends of the floor, able to matchup with top perimeter threats but also thrive in the spot-up system on offense. Bullock has played 36 and 38 minutes the past two games, scoring a collective 43 points and knocking down 9 of 24 from beyond the arc.

The Hawks have sputtered defensively in recent outings, allowing scores of 125, 115 and 121 in three of their last four games, boasting an advanced defensive rating of 116.8 in that span (25th). The 3-pointer has been the biggest sore spot for Atlanta’s defense, watching foes fire away at a 45.4% clip in those last four outings.

Dallas isn’t a great outside shooting team overall, but with extra shooters on the floor against a weak Hawks perimeter defense, the Mavericks will slow this game down and work the ball around for those spot-up looks.

Prediction: Mavericks -2.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Atlanta has some big question marks on the offensive side of the ball Sunday, with John Collins nursing a shoulder injury, Danilo Gallinari possibly missing a second game with a tender hamstring, and super-sub Lou Williams also on the fence. That said, the Hawks have plenty of scoring pop to lean on, with eight players averaging nine or more points. 

Regardless of who’s on the floor, Dallas will see plenty of pick-and-roll from Atlanta’s attack, centered around finding space for Trae Young. The Mavericks, however, are one of the better defenses against pick-and-roll sets in the NBA and Luka Doncic will likely draw Young as an assignment, with Doncic’s defensive intensity ticking up against the Sixers earlier this week.

The Mavericks will also milk their possessions and not allow the Hawks to find any sort of rhythm in this rare road game. Dallas ranks 29th in overall pace but really drops it into a low gear at home, boasting a league-low 95.28 pace rating as a host. That’s led to a 6-20-1 Over/Under count inside the American Airlines Center.

Prediction: Under 221 (-110)

Best bet

While all eyes follow Doncic in Dallas, Jalen Brunson is having one hell of a year for the Mavs. The 6-foot-1 point guard has watched his scoring numbers spike, averaging almost 16 points and 5.5 assists per game. On top of that offensive generation, Brunson is pulling down nearly four rebounds a night – not bad for being one of the smaller guys on the floor.

Brunson will look to attack the Hawks interior tonight, either getting to the rim or packing in the Atlanta defense to find those spot-up shooters on the wing. The emergence of Bullock from beyond the arc and Doncic’s activity should help boost his assist count on Sunday.

The Hawks could also roll out a smaller lineup if Collins and Gallinari sit, giving the ball-hawking Brunson a better chance of tracking down some added boards. 

Some books have Brunson’s points + assists + rebounds total set at 26.5 (Over -108) while other operators are showing 25.5 (Over -125). We’ll go one lower with the bigger price tag, knowing this will come down to a single assist or rebound – as these props always do. 

Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 25.5 points + assists + rebounds (-125)

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