Heat vs Celtics: NBA 2023 Eastern Conference Finals Odds & Betting Preview

In a case of deja vu, the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals are a rematch of both the 2020 bubble series and last year's rendition. Today, we’re diving into the Eastern Conference showdown between the No. 8-seeded Miami Heat and the No. 2 Boston Celtics, beginning on Wednesday, May 18. Boston is getting the shortest odds to win the title, but it would be a grave error to underestimate Miami. 

Our NBA Eastern Conference Finals Series Preview for Heat vs. Celtics includes the X-factors that could swing the series for both teams, in-depth analysis, and a free NBA prop pick for the series below.

2022-23 NBA Championship odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each team from regulated sportsbooks. Analysis below may not match live odds.

Miami Heat breakdown (No. 8 seed, 44-38)

Road to the Eastern Conference Finals

In a stunning upset that ultimately cost Milwaukee Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer his job, the Miami Heat became just the fifth 8-seed to knock off a 1-seed in the first round. They followed that up with another road series upset over the New York Knicks. Miami is making a habit of beating opponents at their own game, outshooting the Bucks from behind the arc, and outmuscling the Knicks from inside of it. 

Outside of a certain Serbian playing in the Western Conference Finals, Jimmy Butler has a credible argument as the playoff MVP. His scoring rampage ultimately knocked off the Bucks and his mere presence on the court put the Knicks in near-constant rotation. If the Heat are going to have a chance in this series, Butler will have to be special.

Heat X-factor: Kyle Lowry

Long the object of Heat fan’s derision, it’s ironic how critical Kyle Lowry has been to Miami’s success in the playoffs. While Lowry is no longer playing to the level of his Hall-of-Fame-caliber peak, he’s the ultimate X-Factor in the series for Miami.

It would be hard to overstate just how impactful Lowry was against the Knicks. His poise, foul drawing, steals, and willingness to pull up from three in transition were all vintage Lowry. The way his size invites “mismatch” hunting in the post ends up being an advantage to the defense. 

There’s a reason that he’s the Greatest Raptor of All-Time, as well as why Butler, the ultimate competitor, recruited him so heavily. All those little winning plays that Lowry consistently makes over the course of 48 minutes can help the Heat stop a critical scoring barrage by Boston or key one of their own. 

Boston Celtics breakdown (No. 2 seed, 57-25)

Road the Eastern Conference Finals

Considered preseason title favorites, the Celtics are supposed to be here. Still, it’s eerie how closely things have gone to script. The Celtics aren’t just experiencing flashbacks to the Bubble season because of their matchup with Miami, their victory over the Philadelphia 76ers also had strong echoes of their path to the Finals in 2022. 

Just as last season against the Bucks, they fell behind 2-3 to the 76ers before rallying with a dominant win at home to clinch the series. If last year’s seven-game war against this same Heat team is any indication, it doesn’t get any easier from here.

Celtics X-factor: the two-big lineup

The lineup shift that saved the Celtics' season was one that was staring them in the face all along. By going with the two-big alignment that got them to the Finals last season, that is, playing Al Horford and Robert Williams III together, they ultimately shut down the James Harden and Joel Embiid pick-and-roll and rallied to beat Philadelphia. 

But the success of the two-big lineup for the Celtics is predicated on Williams zoning up off a non-shooter (in Philly's case PJ Tucker) and the Heat don’t have an obvious candidate. Miami will feel just fine about Williams trying to cheat off of Max Strus or Gabe Vincent. Will the Celtics instead opt to play their more offense-first units and play only one of Horford and Williams at a time? Or could they do as the Milwaukee Bucks did back in their 2021 sweep of Miami and guard Butler with a big? Leaning defense at the expense of spacing has been something rookie head coach Joe Mazzulla has been reluctant to do.

Heat vs Celtics series prediction

By point differential, the Celtics (+6.5) and Heat (+3.1) have been the second and fourth-best teams in the playoffs. Stylistically, they’re also fairly similar to one another in that they both rely on an All-NBA scoring wing (two in Boston’s case), a switchable big who can pass, and two-way guards that make winning plays. But there are significant distinctions between the two teams' strengths and weaknesses that will decide the series.

The Celtics' strengths are both obvious and immense. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are a wing pairing that the Heat have simply not been able to contain well in the past. Tatum has proven particularly effective and is at the peak of his powers having vanquished the 76ers with one of the great Celtics playoff performances of all time. 

Brown has suffered against the Heat’s unrelenting ball pressure, and they’ve taken advantage of Brown’s shakier-than-his-stature-suggests handle at times. But he remains a powerful matchup weapon if the Celtics can get him going.

And like every other team they’ve faced, Boston’s size will be a problem for Miami, the Knicks didn’t have the spacing to exploit mismatch hunting against the Heat’s diminutive backcourt players like Vincent, but Boston does.

Then there are the Celtics' inconsistencies throughout the playoffs. The Celtics can devolve into listless “your turn, my turn” play or slip into total reliance on perimeter shooting and inexcusably poor defensive effort. In theory, the Celtics make up for their up-and-down performances with a seemingly overwhelming talent gap, but that was also supposed to be the case for the Bucks. 

One notable point in Miami’s favor is the coaching battle. Erik Spoelstra is, in my mind, the best coach in the NBA, so it’s no insult to Mazzulla to note that the Heat have a coaching edge in this series. The question remains open as to whether it is a small but notable edge, or a potentially series-deciding one. The latter proved the case against the Knicks, as the Heat were consistently a step ahead over the course of the series. Boston could find themselves playing from behind if Mazzulla is as slow to adjust as he was against the 76ers.

The Celtics have superior shooting talent, but the Heat consistently have better ball movement. The Heat were incredibly patient when they played against the Knicks. New York would make 20 seconds worth of quality rotations, only for the Heat to stay calm, swing the ball several times, and find an open shot. 

Lastly, there’s Butler’s health to consider. Butler wasn’t in top form for most of the Knicks series due to his ankle injury, but he’s had five full days off to recuperate, so I’m expecting something closer to the Butler we saw against Milwaukee. If the Celtics feel the need to pressure Butler on the ball, it unlocks a lot for the Heat. If they decide to switch or feel they can survive in man-to-man, the Heat’s lack of ballhandling outside of Butler and Lowry becomes a potentially fatal issue.

The series odds heavily favor the Celtics, but I’m more bullish on the Heat than their implied odds suggest. I believe Boston ultimately gets it done but in close-run seven-game series.

Best bet: Celtics in 7 (+400 at Betway)

Heat vs Celtics Game 1 odds

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