Heat vs Bucks Picks and Predictions: No Giannis? No Problem

The Miami Heat (32-27) were rolling through most of January and the start of February but stumbled right before the All-Star Break, dropping two straight. They will look for a fresh start coming out of the break, in hopes of establishing themselves as a serious Eastern Conference contender.

Friday night presents the perfect opportunity for them to do exactly that, as they will travel to face the Milwaukee Bucks (41-17). The Bucks come out of the break carrying a 12-game win streak, but are likely to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo, whose return in January kickstarted the run.

Can the Heat take advantage of a hobbled Bucks team and get back on track, or will Milwaukee’s plethora of talent and depth help secure a 13th straight win?

Continue reading for free NBA picks and predictions for the Heat vs. Bucks matchup on Friday, February 24th.

Heat vs Bucks best odds

Heat vs Bucks picks and predictions

As the NBA resumes play coming out of the All-Star Break, both Milwaukee and Miami have a lot of questions to answer during this final stretch of regular season play. For the Bucks, it’s how quickly Giannis Antetokounmpo can return to the court. He was averaging 34.3 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 5.6 assists since returning on January 23rd and Milwaukee has a 12-game win streak heading into tonight largely due to his play.

Giannis sustained a wrist injury in the final game before the All-Star Break, and initial reports indicated that it had the potential to be heartbreakingly serious. He has, however, avoided surgery and the Bucks are evaluating him on a day-to-day basis. He is unlikely to play Friday night, and the rest of the Bucks’ roster will have to step up.

Jrue Holiday, who received his first All-Star nod in over a decade, is more than capable. Since the start of December, Jrue has averaged 20.3 points, 7.1 assists, and 5.4 rebounds per game while shooting 40.3% from three and being arguably the league’s best backcourt defender.

Khris Middleton may need to be leaned on more Friday night, despite dealing with a knee ailment. Middleton has played off the bench since returning on January 23rd, pitching in 15.3 PPG, 4.7 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game while averaging less than 20 minutes per game.

This is all despite shooting 31% from three, an abnormally low clip for the career 39% shooter. In his last four games prior to the break, he shot just 4-of-17 from three (23.5%) so it will be interesting to see how he fares given the knee issue that kept him out of the final game before the break.

The Bucks will also have some reinforcements arriving for Friday’s game to help shoulder the load. Bobby Portis (14.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG), who was in contention for the Sixth Man of the Year award prior to going down on January 23rd, will return. Jae Crowder, who the Bucks acquired at the trade deadline, is also anticipated to make his debut.

That’s a lot of moving parts for Miami to track, but the Heat have handled their business well as of late. After a 12-15 start, they had ripped off a 20-8 stretch before dropping their final two games prior to the break.

Since the start of that stretch, they have posted the fourth-best defensive rating but have managed just the 12th-best net rating. That’s because their offense still continues to struggle, which, despite the winning, has ranked just 22nd during that time. During that time, they have failed to take care of the ball (19th in assist-to-turnover ratio) or make the most of the possessions they keep (second-last in effective field goal percentage). 

Even without Giannis, the Bucks have the Heat outmatched. Expect Holiday & Co. to extend Milwaukee’s win streak.

My best bet: Bucks moneyline (-120)

Heat vs Bucks spread analysis

The spread opened with the Bucks favored by 1.5 points and it has largely stayed there.

Miami is the league’s worst team at covering the spread, having gone 21-35-3 (37.5%). It has fared slightly better on the road (12-16-1, 42.9%), but still is well below league average in that split.

The Heat come out of the break only having covered once in their last seven games, and having gone 5-13 ATS in their last 18, despite all of the straight-up wins.

The Bucks are the league’s third-best team at covering the number, having gone 32-23-3 this year (58.2%). As home favorites they’ve fared extremely well, going 18-11 (62.1%).

Milwaukee has covered in five of its last six and is notoriously great at covering smaller spreads as favorites: 7-2 ATS when favored by three or fewer points.

Heat vs Bucks Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 221 and has since moved to 219 across most of the market.

Given their inability to score and their defensive proficiency, it should come as no surprise that the Heat are one of the league’s friendliest teams towards the Under. They‘ve gone 32-27 that way (54.2%), good for the fourth-highest rate of Unders.

As road underdogs, however, they have gone the other way. In that split of 14 games, they have gone 9-5 to the Over (64.3%). They have also gone Over the total in four of their last six games.

Milwaukee has slightly shaded towards the Under at 30-28 (51.7%). But like Miami, tonight’s game environment favors the other direction: In home games this year it’s gone 19-10 to the Over (65.5%).

The Bucks have gone Under the total in six of their last eight, but have been fairly neutral on totals below 220 (7-6 to the Under).

Heat vs Bucks betting trend to know

Milwaukee is 19-10 to the Over at home and Miami is 9-5 to the Over as road underdogs. The two teams are a combined 47-27 to the Under in all other games. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Bucks.

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