Revenge is on the minds of the Milwaukee Bucks when they open their Eastern Conference NBA Playoffs series with the Miami Heat on Saturday.
Milwaukee was bounced from the bubble by Miami in the East semifinals last summer and is installed as home NBA betting favorites for Game 1 of this No. 3-versus-No. 6 quarterfinal series. The Bucks won two of the three meetings with the Heat this season (2-1 ATS), however, Miami standout Jimmy Butler was absent in each of those games.
Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Heat vs. Bucks on May 22.
Heat vs Bucks game info
• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Saturday, May 22, 2021
• Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Heat vs Bucks odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThis line has been bet into for a few days now at DraftKings, going up Tuesday night at Miami -5.5, bouncing between -5 and -4.5 much of the week and sitting at -5 as of noon ET game day. The Bucks are landing 61 percent of bets and 55 percent of money on the point spread. The total is down a point to 226, with 58 percent of bets on the Over and 66 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameHeat vs Bucks series odds
Heat: +230
Bucks: -280
Heat vs Bucks betting preview
Injuries
Heat: Jimmy Butler F (Probable), Andre Iguodala F (Probable), Kendrick Nunn G (Probable).
Bucks: Khris Middleton G (Probable), Bobby Portis F (Probable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 10-4 in Miami’s last 14 games versus a team with a winning record. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Bucks.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Miami was one of the stronger finishers in the regular season, capping the slate with a 12-4 SU march (11-4-1 ATS) that boosted the Heat to sixth in the East. Milwaukee was no slouch either, posting an 8-2 SU record in its final 10 games but coming up short for bettors with a 4-6 ATS count in that span.
The big boost for the Heat down the home stretch was the improved perimeter play from their guards. Miami ranked among the back half of the NBA in terms of 3-point shooting on the season but closed those final 16 contests connecting on 39.6 percent of its looks from long range, for an average of 43.2 points from distance per game.
Miami needs guys like Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, and Kendrick Nunn to take — and make — those 3-pointers if they’re going to send Milwaukee into early vacation mode. The Bucks top the league in points per game (120.1) and sit fifth in the NBA’s advanced offensive rating (116.5) but always seem to come up short in the postseason.
The defensive duo of Butler and Bam Adebayo will focus their fire on inconveniencing Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak struggled versus Miami in the regular season, averaging a mere 16.7 points on less than 48 percent shooting through three meetings, most recently going 6 for 12 for 15 points in 33:39 of work in a 122-108 home victory over Miami on May 15. But again, no Butler for the Heat.
Last September’s series went just five games on a neutral court and Antetokounmpo was limited to under 22 average points (played in four games). This year’s series appears to be setting up for a longer engagement and plenty of close games, but with Butler back and momentum with Miami, we’re taking the points with the Heat in what will be a tight series opener.
PREDICTION: Miami +5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Miami’s improved play from outside boosted the team’s production to more than 114 points per showing in that final 16-game run, leading to an 11-5 Over/Under record in those contests. However, the Heat play one of the more calculated paces in the league and get most of their open looks off screens, requiring patience and ball movement.
The Bucks defense may not be what it used to be, but Milwaukee doesn’t give up anything easy. This team allowed just 43.1 points in the paint per game and limits foes to an average of only 25.7 field goal attempts inside of five feet — second-lowest in the league. In their last matchup with Miami, the Bucks checked the Heat to 108 points on 42 percent shooting with just 34 of those points coming inside the key.
As for the Heat, head coach Erik Spoelstra is one of the best defensive minds in the NBA and will switch up looks — from man-to-man to zone to everything in between — in order to keep Milwaukee’s dangerous offense from getting into a rhythm. Miami is also stingy when it comes to interior defense (league-low 41.3 PITP allowed) and will look to stick the tempo of this series in sand, much like it did against Milwaukee’s quick pace in last year’s postseason victory (played Under in three of five games).
PREDICTION: Under 227 (-110)
Player prop pick
Slowing down Giannis is priority No. 1 for Miami, which means Milwaukee may run its offense through the versatile 7-footer, using his height and knack for drawing in defenders to find teammates in space.
Antetokounmpo dished out nearly six assists per game in the regular season and totaled 10 and six assists in matchups with the Heat back in late December. He had just four dimes in the Bucks’ win over Miami on May 15 but also had two nine-assist performances in last year’s series with Miami. He finished the year with six or more helpers in three of his final six games.
The Heat don’t budge around the basket but have been burned from outside when collapsing on defense. Antetokounmpo should pick up some easy helpers tossing it to Khris Middleton and Bryn Forbes when the double team comes.
PREDICTION: Giannis Antetokounmpo assists Over 5.5 (-106)
Heat vs Bucks betting card
- Miami +5 (-110)
- Under 227 (-110)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo assists Over 5.5 (-106)
Picks made on 5/19/2021 at 12:42 p.m. ET
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