Heat vs Celtics Picks and Predictions: Handicapping this Eastern Conference Showdown

The NBA betting board has 11 games on Wednesday night, including a battle between two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference as the Boston Celtics host the Miami Heat.

These squads are in a four-way race for the No. 1 seed in the East and the Celtics are 5-point home favorites as they try to close the gap with Miami. Here are our best free NBA picks and predictions for Heat vs. Celtics.

Heat vs Celtics odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line hit the board with the Celtics installed as 5-point favorites. That number shortened to -4 but has since bounced back to -5 with some books even offering -5.5. The total opened at 214.5 and has been bouncing between 214 and 215.

When these teams previously faced off on January 31, the Celtics won 122-92 as 6.5-point home favorites against a Heat side that was missing Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Heat vs Celtics predictions

• Prediction: Heat +5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 214.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Smart Over 6.5 assists (+105)

Predictions made on 3/30/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Heat vs Celtics game info

• Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
• Date: Wednesday, March 30, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Heat vs Celtics betting preview

Key injuries

Heat: Duncan Robinson SF (Questionable), Cam Martin F (Questionable).
Celtics: Jaylen Brown SG (Probable), Jayson Tatum (Probable), Robert Williams III C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Heat are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Celtics.

Heat vs Celtics picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

With just six games remaining in the regular season these teams are practically in a dead-heat (pardon the pun) for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. The Heat are currently atop the standings with a 48-28 record but just 1.5 games separate them from fourth-place Philadelphia. If the Celtics win tonight they would have the same record and would own the tie-breaker since they've already taken down Miami twice this season. 

The Celtics are fresh off an overtime loss to Toronto on Monday but it's impressive that they kept things close considering that they were resting Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum while Al Horford was out due to personal reasons. All three are expected to be back tonight although the Cs will be without center Robert Williams III who suffered a torn meniscus on Sunday. 

Time Lord was a highly efficient interior scorer and arguably Boston's most important defensive player, leading the team with 9.6 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game. Prior to Monday's loss to the Raptors, Boston had won 11 of its previous 12 games (going 9-3 against the spread during that span) but things will get tougher without Williams. 

The Heat are coming off a 123-100 win against the Kings on Monday which snapped a four-game losing streak. Despite going just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games, Miami might not be getting enough respect coming into this contest as 5-point pups.

This is still the team with the top record in the East, ranks sixth in the league in net rating, and is for the most part healthy (although Duncan Robinson is questionable with a non-COVID illness tonight).

It's also worth mentioning that despite their recent overall ATS mark, the Heat are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games and have gone a sizzling 15-6 ATS in their previous 21 contests when catching points. Without Williams as a help defender, we'll take the Heat with the points. 

Prediction: Heat +5 (-110 at Pinnacle)

Over/Under analysis

Both of these teams are near the top of the NBA in scoring defense while ranking among the Bottom-10 teams in pace, but there is reason to think the total might be a tad too low tonight. Keep in mind, that both squads have seen slight regression on defense since the All-Star break. 

Prior to the break, the Celtics were limiting foes to 103.5 points per game on 42.9% shooting while the Heat were allowing 104.4 ppg on 44.2% shooting. Since then, Boston is allowing 106.1 ppg on 44.5% shooting, while Miami is giving up 107.6 ppg on 45.9% shooting. 

The Celtics have also been filling up the hoop lately. Prior to Monday's contest against the Raps where they rested their Top-2 leading scorers, they had scored at least 124 points in five-straight games, averaging 127.8 ppg over that span.

However, they'll likely take a step back on defense without Williams protecting the rim. 

The betting trends also point in this direction with the Over 5-1 in Miami's last six games and the Celtics going 6-0 O/U in their previous six contests. The Over is also 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these Eastern Conference foes. 

Prediction: Over 214.5 (-110 at Pinnacle)

Best bet

Marcus Smart is coming off a game against the Raps where he had just four assists, However, without Tatum and Brown, the guard was forced into a bigger-scoring role in that contest and attempted 25 field goal attempts (seven more than his previous season-high). 

With Brown and Tatum back in the lineup, Smart will likely go back to facilitating more which should mean an uptick in his assists total.

Prior to that game against Toronto, Smart had dropped at least seven dimes in eight of his previous 10 games, averaging 8.2 assists per game over that stretch. We like the Over 6.5 on his assists total at plus money. 

Pick: Marcus Smart Over 6.5 assists (+105)

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