The Jimmy Butler trade was supposed to prompt a more settled run in this turbulent Miami Heat season, but they’re on a six-game skid as they visit the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.
Still, Memphis has had a tough time covering the spread lately, especially at home, and my Heat vs. Grizzlies predictions expect Miami to put up a fight here.
My NBA picks take a closer look at this March 15 battle.
Heat vs Grizzlies prediction
My best bet: Miami Heat +8 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Miami Heat are searching for answers as the play-in approaches, and Erik Spoelstra shook things up with a new starting lineup yesterday against the Boston Celtics.
That wasn’t enough to take down the defending champs, but there’s still a lot of pride in this Miami locker room.
Defensively, the Heat are hanging in there, holding four of their last seven opponents to fewer than 107 points, and they’re 6-4 ATS in their last 10 outings.
Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games and haven’t covered the spread in any of their past eight outings at FedExForum.
They’re 5-5 overall in their last 10 games, dropping them to the No.4 seed in the West.
Given all that, this spread feels too high, and I’m taking the points with a Miami team that should be hungry to get back on track.
The Heat have won two of the last three matchups against the Grizzlies, and the athleticism of Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, and Davion Mitchell is a good fit for slowing down a potent Memphis offense.
Some of the Grizzlies’ defensive flaws were exposed in last night’s loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers, and that bodes well for a Miami offense that’s willing to let it fly from downtown.
The Heat rank 11th in made 3-pointers per game this season – and 12th in 3-point attempts.
An upset victory for the visitors here might be a reach, but I like their chances of making this a real contest down the stretch.
Heat vs Grizzlies same-game parlay
Miami Heat +8
Desmond Bane Over 4.5 assists
Tyler Herro Over 22.5 points
Ja Morant is the engine for this Memphis offense, but Desmond Bane isn’t far behind with his ever-improving all-around game. I’m taking the Over on Bane’s assists prop tonight on a generous 4.5 O/U line.
He’s averaging 5.7 apg so far in March and dished nine dimes in the Grizzlies’ win over the Utah Jazz on Wednesday. The hosts have scored 120 points or more in four of their past five contests, and Bane’s playmaking gives them a good shot at hitting that mark again here.
The Heat’s path to a road upset runs through a stubborn defensive effort and Tyler Herro’s shot-making. Herro leads Miami with 23.8 ppg this season and, while that scoring has dipped to 21.7 ppg so far this month, he poured in 31 points in midweek against the Los Angeles Clippers.
This is also a volume play, with Herro attempting at least 19 shots in five of his last eight outings. While Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jaylen Wells are relentless defenders, the Heat should be able to find other matchups to attack here, including hunting Morant on that end of the floor.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Heat vs Grizzlies odds
Heat vs Grizzlies live odds
Heat vs Grizzlies opening odds
- Spread: Miami +7.5 (-110) | Memphis -7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Miami (+260) | Memphis (-325)
- Over/Under: Over 228.5 (-110) | Under 228.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Heat vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis
- Miami is a clear road underdog here and the line has even bumped up after opening at 7.
- But the Grizzlies have only hit the 1H moneyline in eight of their past 33 games, and they could be without Santi Aldama again tonight.
- The Over is 38-27-2 for Memphis this season, though the Under is 6-3 in the hosts’ last nine outings.
- The Under has been a winning ticket in four of the last five meetings between these teams.
Heat vs Grizzlies trend
The Heat has hit the 1H moneyline in 28 of their last 46 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Grizzlies.
How to watch Heat vs Grizzlies
| Location | FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tennessee |
| Date | Saturday, 3-15-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network-SU, FanDuel Sports Network SE-Memphis, WMC-TV |
Heat vs Grizzlies latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
