Heat vs Knicks Picks and Predictions: Miami Makes Garden Uncomfortably Hot

The New York Knicks made headlines this week by deciding to sit Kemba Walker for the remainder of the season. Now, the Knicks will look to get the rest of the year started off on a positive not when they host the Miami Heat on Friday. 

Will New York come away with the home upset at Madison Square Garden? Check out our Heat vs. Knicks NBA picks and predictions for Friday, February 25 to find out. 

Heat vs Knicks odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Heat opened as 5.5-point favorites against the Knicks, but they’re now only laying either 4.5 or 5 points in this one. The total, which opened at 213.5, is down to as low as 210.5, with a little more than half the bets coming in on the Under. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Heat vs Knicks predictions

• Prediction: Heat -4.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 211 (-110)
• Best bet: Heat -4.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/25/2022 at 1:05 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Heat vs Knicks game info

• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY
• Date: Friday, February 25, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Heat vs Knicks betting preview

Key injuries

Heat: Tyler Herro G (Questionable), Dewayne Dedmon C (Questionable), Victor Oladipo G (Out), Markieff Morris F (Out), Caleb Martin F (Questionable).
Knicks: RJ Barrett F (Questionable), Kemba Walker G (Out), Nerlens Noel C (Out), Derrick Rose G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Heat are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six games as road favorites. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Knicks.

Heat vs Knicks picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Knicks are no longer playing Walker this season, which means New York could be a little thin at the point guard spot until Derrick Rose comes back. Immanuel Quickely is probably the team’s best option there right now, but New York continues to use Alec Burks as the primary ball handler. Burks is a solid role player on the wing, but he’s playing a bit out of position right now.

And as things stand, the Knicks are just limited in what they can do offensively, outside of the occasional hot night from guys like Julius Randle, RJ Barrett or Evan Fournier. Randle had been playing well heading into the All-Star break, but he gives back a lot of what he gets offensively on the defensive end of the floor. That’s not a recipe for success in this league. 

This mediocre Knicks offense now has to face a Heat team that is sixth in the league in defensive rating. Miami is also finally starting to get healthy, and the team will be looking to make a statement under the bright lights of New York City in this one. Look for Kyle Lowry’s two-way game at the point guard position to really stand out against a Knicks team that is weak at that spot. Also, Jimmy Butler should be able to lock up whoever has the hot hand on the wing for the Knicks. 

Miami also has a huge edge on the inside with Bam Adebayo, which happens to be the case almost every night. He has formidable size and both the athleticism and positioning to match it, and his relentless motor makes him a tough cover. If the Knicks from the first half of the season show up, Adebayo is going to absolutely dominate them.  

Prediction: Heat -4.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Heat are one of the best defensive teams in basketball, meaning it will be hard on a mediocre Knicks offense to score in this game. Miami and New York are also 28th and 29th in the league in pace of play, respectively. Neither one of them will be rushing to get shots up in this game, and that is just huge when thinking about whether or not to bet the Under here. 

The Under is also 16-7-1 in the last 24 games that Miami has played against teams with losing records, and the Under also happens to be 19-7 in the last 26 meetings between these two teams at Madison Square Garden. Overall, there’s just no reason to really back the Over in a game like this. Both of these teams are defensive-minded and this should be a pretty physical game. 

Prediction: Under 211 (-110)

Best bet

The Heat won by 14 when they faced the Knicks on January 26, and Miami is now 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS against New York over the last three seasons. Not much is different when you look at these teams this season, as there’s a big mismatch in the talent department between these two.

Miami legitimately has an advantage at nearly every single position on the floor, and the team also has the edge in the coaching department. The only thing the Heat have to worry about is the crowd getting into this one, but the team’s defense should prevent New York from going on any huge runs. 

The Knicks are also just 8-15 ATS when playing against teams with winning records this year, while the Heat are 20-7-1 ATS when facing teams that force 13.0 or fewer turnovers per game this season. It’s just hard to envision this being a tight game, especially with Miami being well-rested after the All-Star break.  

Pick: Heat -4.5 (-110)

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