We get a really fun matchup in the NBA on Friday night, as Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat visit Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks.
The Heat are playing some of the best basketball of their season, winning seven of their last 10 games straight up and against the spread. The Mavericks, meanwhile, are in a bit of a slump, dropping three contests in a row and five of their last six.
Can Doncic pull the Mavs out of this skid and pull out a win as slight home underdogs, or will the Heat defense prove too much for El Matador?
I break down this matchup and bring you my best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for the Heat vs. Mavericks.
Heat vs Mavericks best odds
Heat vs Mavericks picks and predictions
Even though Luka Doncic has been surpassed by Nikola Jokic in the NBA MVP odds, there’s no denying how great the Mavericks’ superstar guard has been this season. Doncic is averaging 33.7 points with 8.8 rebounds and 8.8 assists but that hasn’t been enough to halt the Mavericks' skid.
Dallas has dropped five of its last six games and while that’s good enough to still sit in fifth in the Western Conference, it's just 1.5 games out of 10th. While Doncic has put up big numbers this season, he isn’t getting enough support when the Mavs go against tougher teams.
Over the last 10 games, Dallas has played four teams that rank in the Top 10 in defensive rating — Boston, New Orleans, Oklahoma City, and the L.A. Clippers —and averaged 108 points in those four games and only topped 109 points once.
Tonight, the Mavs go against a Heat team that is playing very good basketball and is always known for its high level of play on the defensive end of the floor. This year is no different, as the team ranks sixth in defensive rating.
The Heat should also have its way on the glass tonight. Miami has the top rebounding rate in the NBA since the start of the New Year while Dallas ranks dead last in rebounding rate for the season.
Until the Mavs get consistent production out of guys not named Doncic, they will continue to have trouble putting up points in tougher matchups. Mix in the fact they play at the second slowest pace in the NBA and I am betting the Mavs fallen below their team total in this one.
My best bet: Mavericks team total Under 109.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
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Heat vs Mavericks spread analysis
The Heat opened this matchup as 1-point road chalk and the line has moved slightly in their favor since then, sitting at Miami -1.5 as of Friday afternoon. I’m leaning toward laying the points with the road team.
It’s not shocking the Heat playing their best basketball coincides with a sustained stretch of health for Jimmy Butler, who hasn’t missed a game since the start of January. Butler is averaging 22.4 points on 48.1% shooting while adding 5.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.7 steals over the last nine games.
The offense has improved since then, ranking 15th in offensive rating, and shouldn’t have a problem putting up points going against a Mavs team that is having a tough time preventing buckets. Dallas ranks 25th in defensive rating this season.
It’s the other end of the floor where Miami has been elite lately. The Heat rank second in defensive rating over nine games since the start of 2023.
These teams are trending in different directions and the Heat have too many edges at the moment to consider taking the home team.
Heat vs Mavericks Over/Under analysis
The total for this matchup hit the board at 217 and the early money has been on the Over, moving the number up to 218.5. Since I’m betting on a low-scoring game from the Mavericks, I would lean toward the full-game Under as well.
While the Heat offense is playing better, they are still scoring just 110.2 points per game and rank 25th in effective field goal percentage over the last nine games. On top of that, the Mavs aren’t the only team in this matchup that plays at a slow tempo. The Heat rank 28th in pace.
This game should play out as an intense, defensive battle that should fall below the number.
Heat vs Mavericks betting trend to know
The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Mavericks.
Heat vs Mavericks game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Friday, January 20, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
