The Charlotte Hornets and Atlanta Hawks have more or less swapped spots from preseason expectations to their current standing. The Hawks are stuck in the Eastern Conference's play-in realms, while the Hornets are within striking distance of a Top-4 seed.
The two precocious squads square off Saturday night in the ATL, pitting two of the game's most electrifying young stars – LaMelo Ball and Trae Young – in a head-to-head matchup.
It's likely to be the most exciting game on tonight's NBA slate, so let's make it one of the more profitable too with our Hornets vs Hawks picks and predictions for November 19.
Hornets vs Hawks odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Hawks opened as -6.5 favorites at most books, which has been steadily bet down to -6. The total was mostly set to 226, although some books have it at 226.5, with no movement anywhere.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Hornets vs Hawks predictions
Predictions made on 11/19/2021 at 11:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Hornets vs Hawks game info
• Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Saturday, November 20, 2021
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NBATV, BSSE
Hornets vs Hawks betting preview
Injuries
Hornets: P.J. Washington PF (Questionable).
Hawks: De'Andre Hunter SF (Out), Onyeka Okongwu PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Hornets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Hornets vs. Hawks.
Hornets vs Hawks picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
This matchup pitches us two teams that are both possibly playing below their ceilings, especially the Hawks, who are anomalously sub-.500 after a spirited run to the East Finals.
Atlanta's a much better team than its record suggests so far, and there's a chance Charlotte's record belies its ability too. The Hornets have played the NBA's toughest schedule thus far, per ESPN, with the Hawks not too far behind in fourth. So, while Atlanta's clearly under-performing, Charlotte may be even more legit than we gave it credit for.
The Hornets are a deep unit led by a generational talent in Ball, who knifes into the paint at will and contorts defenses with his passing angles like few players can even dream of. Between Ball, Gordon Hayward, "Scary" Terry Rozier and still-leaping Miles Bridges, the Hornets have four guys who can give them 20 with ease any night, making scoring a non-worry. Atlanta, likewise, has a deep roster of supplementary scorers behind one-man offense factory Young. Both are Top-10 adjusted offenses so far this season.
Conversely, Atlanta owns the NBA's third-worst adjusted defensive rating. It's been really bad. Charlotte, meanwhile, is closer to the middle of the pack, ranked 17th. It's by no means a team of lockdown artists, but its league-worst 113.3 opponent points per game aren't as indicative of its defensive chops (more on that in a moment).
The Hornets are relentless attackers, who love to slash at the hoop and will target Young no matter where the Hawks try to hide him. Clint Capela's a great rim protector, but Ball is enough of a dynamic playmaker, and Charlotte has enough scorers, that they should be able to punish the Hawks' defensive disorganization. That's the main edge in this matchup.
With very similar rosters last season, we can also draw from 2020-21's results, where the Hornets went 2-1, winning both by eight points with the lone loss coming by four with Ball sidelined.
This year, the Hornets are a better team, still have room to overperform, and are being spotted points in this matchup. Charlotte may be on a back-to-back, but its young legs won't be as fazed by the workload, and we're happy taking the points with a team that's won five straight ATS.
Prediction: Hornets +6 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
This is the kind of game where we're taking the Over and not thinking twice about it.
As mentioned above, both of these squads are Top-10 offenses with a bevy of scorers, many of whom are over-qualified for their roles and can easily pick up the slack if another is having an off night.
Also as mentioned, the Hawks are one of this season's worst defenses, and the Hornets give up the most points per game in the NBA, by virtue of them playing at the league's second-fastest pace.
Speed is key, as Atlanta (16th in pace) doesn't have the tools to control tempo and turn this game into a halfcourt grind, especially with De'Andre Hunter – its best perimeter defender – sidelined. The Hawks are more likely to be forced into a shootout with the Hornets playing fast and loose, and ATL is amply equipped to return fire.
Both these sides rank in the Top 10 of points per game (Charlotte second, Atlanta tenth), and the bottom 10 of points allowed (Atlanta 22nd, Charlotte 30th). Unless one or both of their deep arsenals go stone-cold, we'll see an Over here.
Prediction: Over 226 (-110)
Best bet
While we're expecting the Hornets to ultimately cover in this game, the first quarter may not play out encouragingly for Charlotte backers.
The Hornets are dead last in the NBA at just 4-12 ATS in the first quarter, sporting a 29th-ranked Q1 margin of -4.4.
After playing a game in a different city last night in which they almost blew a 20-point lead, Charlotte's especially liable to start slow in this game, and we like them to be playing from behind again after the first frame against a rested Hawks squad. We'd happily take this at -110 — the even odds are just icing on the cake.
PICK: Atlanta Q1 -2.5 (+100)
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