Jayson Tatum’s two-faced performance in Game 1 versus the New York Knicks has me drawing connections to Marvel Studios’ newest overpowered character.
(Warning: Thunderbolts* spoilers ahead)
The latest film from the superhero studio introduces us to “Sentry”, a genetically engineered Superman knockoff who also has a dark and disturbed alter-ego, “The Void”.
And that’s what Tatum’s second-half efforts left in the Boston Celtics’ offense on Monday night... a void. After putting up 13 points in the first 24 minutes, the Celtics superstar would contribute just eight more points and shoot 2-for-11 from the field, sucking all life out of a Boston attack that mustered only 39 points in the second half.
The Celtics would blow a 16-point cushion at the break and eventually lose 108-105 in overtime, leaving fingers pointing at Tatum. Which hero shows up for Game 2? Here are my NBA picks for Knicks vs. Celtics on May 7.
Jayson Tatum player prop picks
- Best bet
Tatum Under 9.5 rebounds
(-110) - SGP pick
Tatum Under 9.5 rebounds
Holiday Over 3.5 assists
Celtics team total Over 110.5
(+475)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Jayson Tatum best bet
Jayson Tatum Under 9.5 rebounds (-110 at bet365)
Jayson Tatum tied his season high with 16 rebounds in the Game 1 collapse to New York on Monday. That stat line had a few factors playing into it that won’t be there in Game 2.
For one, the Boston Celtics straight up sucked in the second half. Boston jumped out to a big lead at the halftime break, then didn’t leave the locker room. The team that did come out for the final 24 minutes fired up a “Sandy Lyle-like” 29% from the floor, including a 9-for-34 brickyard from beyond the arc. A surplus of misses panned out to a surge in rebounding chances, with Tatum drawing 16 of those opportunities on the glass.
Second, Kristaps Porzingis played just 13 minutes due to illness. Boston’s 7-foot unicorn is a very effective rebounder (he did have four rebounds in that limited time), but was barely there on the boards in Game 1. That left Tatum to crash the glass, especially when Boston went with a smaller lineup.
Now, there’s no doubt that Tatum’s rebounding efforts have been beefed up in the postseason (averaged 8.7 in the regular season), with the superstar forward averaging more than 11 rebounds against Orlando in Round 1, but the Magic sold out on stopping the Celtics’ 3-point threats, were undersized in the front court, and were a miserable shooting team themselves (42%). Tatum averaged 17.8 rebounding chances per game for the series.
I expect both the Celtics and Knicks to shoot the ball more consistently in Game 2, leaving fewer misses and rebounds up for grabs. Porzingis is also expected to play more tonight, bumping Tatum to the perimeter and away from the rim.
Before Game 1’s result, Tatum had recorded four, six, seven, and 10 rebounds in the four regular-season clashes with New York, while averaging only 10.3 rebounding chances over those meetings.
Monday’s 16-rebound effort has puffed up Tatum’s prop total for Game 2. It sits at 9.5 with the Over juiced to -129 at some shops. That’s a much bigger ask on the glass than Tatum’s rebound totals to start the playoffs, with those numbers as low as 7.5 O/U.
Player projections range from 8.7 to 9.2 rebounds for the Celtics’ franchise player, but every forecast comes in below the 9.5-rebound bar. My number is at nine rebounds, but the floor feels lower considering those missing factors in Game 2.
Jayson Tatum same-game parlay
Jayson Tatum Under 9.5 rebounds
Jrue Holiday Over 3.5 assists
Celtics team total Over 110.5
Tatum will be out to fix his shot, and with Boston expected to bounce back, there won’t be as many misses to track down for rebounds.
Holiday had plenty of nice passes in Game 1, but Boston couldn’t cash in on those set-ups. I like him to have four or more dimes tonight.
The Celtics’ second-half belly flop burned what looked like a surefire team total Over in Game 1 after scoring 61 first-half points. Boston gets its groove back and scores 111 or more.
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