Jazz vs Grizzlies Picks and Predictions: Utah Has Underdog Appeal at a Big Number

The Memphis Grizzlies are a mess at the moment, but there truly is no place like home for this team. The Grizzlies have played their best basketball at the Grind House, and that could lift them to new heights as they look to turn their season around.

The Utah Jazz, too, are seeking a change in momentum after falling off the solid pace they set for themselves at the beginning of the season.

Let’s break down how this one should go in our Jazz vs. Grizzlies NBA picks and predictions for Wednesday, February 15.

Jazz vs Grizzlies best odds

Jazz vs Grizzlies picks and predictions

The Jazz enter play on Wednesday winners of two their last three games, but it still feels like Utah is not the team some fell in love with earlier in the season. It is now 29-30, down to 10th in the Western Conference.

With that being said, the Grizzlies have won just three of their last 12, most of which coincides with an injury to Steven Adams. The big man has missed the last 10 games, and as a result, Memphis has lost its luster inside. The Grizzlies – the No. 3 rebounding team in the league – are just 26th over their last 10 contests, grabbing only 47.3% of available rebounds.

One thing we know to be true about the Grizzlies is that they’re amazing at home. They’ve outscored opponents by 10.5 points per 100 possessions when playing in Memphis, and on the road their Net Rating is -2.6. However, is this line too much of an overcorrection for a cold Grizzlies team returning home?

Memphis has lost its hard-nosed identity without Adams, and Walker Kessler and Kelly Olynyk promise to be a serious test on the other side of this matchup for Jaren Jackson Jr., Brandon Clarke and Xavier Tillman.

I would consider buying into a bounce-back performance from the Grizzlies at six or so points, but at 10.5, I think the play is on Utah.

My best bet: Jazz +10.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Jazz vs Grizzlies spread analysis

I’ve already mentioned that I like the Jazz to cover, but allow me to lay out some trends if you feel compelled to bet with those instead of recent form.

Memphis is 17-10-1 against the spread as the home team this season, and 15-10-1 ATS as the home favorite. On the road, it is just 9-18-1 ATS in all of its games.

That’s pretty staggering. On the other hand, the Grizzlies are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 contests, and are just 2-3-1 ATS as favorites of 10 or more this year. Utah has gone 16-12-1 ATS on the road, and 13-7-1 ATS as the road underdog. In contrast to Memphis, the Jazz managed to cover easily the only time it was a double-digit underdog.

The Grizzlies are a popular side on Wednesday among the big bettors. While the Jazz are commanding 54% of the spread tickets at DraftKings, the Grizzlies are responsible for 70% of the handle wagered on the spread.

Jazz vs Grizzlies Over/Under analysis

There’s a similar reverse split for the total as well over at DraftKings. As of this writing, just 38% of the bets have come in on the Over, while 58% of the money is on a high-scoring game. With that being said, we’ve hardly seen this number budge from the opener of 239 points.

The Grizzlies may not be rebounding the ball well without Adams, but they’ve managed to keep up their pace over the last 10 games. For the season, they rank fifth with a rating of 101.78. In the last 10 games they’re 10th, which is a slight drop-off from the season-long number, but still nothing to bat an eye at. It is, however, worth noting that the Grizzlies play with a 101.34 Pace rating at home, and a 102.23 rating on the road. Perhaps this is due to the fact that they generally find themselves enjoying many leads in Memphis.

While just three of the last 12 games the Grizzlies have played have gone Over, it would make sense that in a game they’re expected to win easily that the Over would be in play. If you believe the Jazz keep this one tight, we'll probably see a slightly slower pace. If you like Memphis, then I’d say take the Over.

Jazz vs Grizzlies betting trend to know

The Over has cashed in four of Utah’s last five games. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Grizzlies.

Jazz vs Grizzlies game info

Jazz vs Grizzlies key injuries

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