We have a series on our hands.
After the Memphis Grizzlies stole Game 1 in Salt Lake City, the Utah Jazz dropped a franchise playoff record 141 points on them in a Game 2 victory. But Memphis, who was down 20 at the half, whittled the Jazz lead down to just two late, before a barrage of 3-pointers put them away for good.
Now back on their home court, are the Grizzlies a good NBA betting pick? Find out with our Jazz vs. Grizzlies picks and predictions for Saturday, May 29.
Jazz vs Grizzlies game info
• Location: FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN
• Date: Saturday, May 29, 2021
• Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Jazz vs Grizzlies odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThe line opened at Utah -5, with the total opening between 222 and 224.5. Early action hasn't budged the spread, while the total sits at 224 at most books. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, 51 percent of bets are on the Grizzlies with 62 percent of the money also riding on Memphis. About 85 percent of total wagers are on the Over for Game 3.
Check out the full line movement for this gameJazz vs Grizzlies series odds
Jazz: -650
Grizzlies: +475
Jazz vs Grizzlies betting preview
Injuries
Jazz: None
Grizzlies: None
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Grizzlies.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
This has been one hell of a series so far.
Even when Memphis seemed to be down and out in Game 2, they roared back to give everyone (except Over bettors) a serious sweat, with Ja Morant scoring a franchise record 47 points on an impressive array of crafty floaters. Ja tested the Jazz defense without pause, apparently completely undeterred by Rudy Gobert violently erasing his attempted assassination in the first half.
But the Jazz were too much. While everything went wrong for Utah in Game 1, just about everything went right in Game 2. They shrewdly kept Memphis on its collective toes, alternating between raining bombs from long distance and dissecting the Grizzlies' pick-n-roll coverage. Utah collectively shot almost 49 percent from long range, while Gobert was 9 for 11 from the floor — it was an absolutely surgical display.
Instead of Gobert in foul trouble, three Grizzlies starters felt the pinch in this one. The Jazz built their large lead in the first half while both of Memphis' starting bigs rode the pine with three fouls, and it proved too much to overcome.
Memphis' Game 1 outcome seemed unsustainable, and Utah's Game 2 output gives us the same vibes. The Jazz scored more points than they ever have in a playoff game for Christ's sake, shooting a full ten percent above average from long range. Memphis also handed Utah a buffet of points with dumb fouls contesting 3-pointers. The Grizz are a well-coached team with young, bouncy legs that had the NBA's seventh-best defense in the regular season. They'll come prepared in Game 3.
And while Jaren Jackson Jr and Dillon Brooks are two of the most foul-prone players in the league, it's unlikely that Memphis winds up in foul trouble to that extent again, especially Valanciunas, whose size and rebounding against Gobert are vital.
Equally unsustainable are Morant's 47 points, despite the young guard's utter lack of any playoff learning curve. But Memphis' rotation is one of the league's deepest (Brandon Clarke is suddenly racking up DNP-CDs) and clawed back into Game 2 despite nobody outside of Morant and Brooks getting much going offensively. Those points are replaceable, and Ja has the vision to queue up open looks from any angle when Utah collapses on him, which they surely must start doing now.
The Grizzlies will only have 10,000 fans in attendance for this game, but low-key have one of the best fanbases in the entire league, and the energy welcoming this team back after an incredible three-game roadie will be palpable.
These Grizzlies have tons of fight in them and are gaining confidence with each game. Utah will be hard-pressed to come away with an easy win.
PREDICTION: Memphis +5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Utah laid its intentions fairly bare in Game 2. They let Morant prance all over the paint doing pretty much whatever he wanted and saw fit to simply outscore him on the other end.
The result was a 270-point output, some 52 points greater than the Over/Under total. Obviously, there's a regression coming. But how big?
Most books have slotted Game 3's total at 224, which is a sizable shift from the first two games, but still not enough in our minds.
The Jazz are clearly asserting themselves as a fine-tuned offensive unit, and got pretty much whatever look they wanted Wednesday night. Memphis will adjust, but Utah is a balanced team that executes too well to be shut down completely.
Both teams are due for a better effort on defense, and expecting each side to shoot 54 percent from the floor again is optimistic. But Game 2's monster output came at a very reasonable 101.0 pace (just around Memphis' average for the season).
The 46-point gap between Game 2's final and Game 3's projected total is a lot to account for, and we're not betting on the regression being so steep.
PREDICTION: Over 224 (-110)
Player prop pick
We were just a point off topping Kyle Anderson's Game 2 points total (scoring 11 vs. a total of 11.5), but we like this pick again for lots of the same reasons, even against a now-higher total of 12.5
Anderson's averaged 14.09 points over his past 11 games, and only once since April 28 has he taken fewer shot attempts than his seven in Game 2.
With the Jazz defense keyed in on Morant and Brooks, the looks Anderson did get were quick and efficient — the type you could see him taking advantage of more in Game 3.
Utah's going to have to do something to force the ball out of Morant's hands after what he did to them in Game 2, and we still think Anderson – with Ja's insane usage rate reduced – can get over this number.
PREDICTION: Kyle Anderson Over 12.5 points (-115)
Jazz vs Grizzlies betting card
- Memphis +5 (-110)
- Over 224 (-110)
- Kyle Anderson Over 12.5 points (-115)
Picks made on 5/28/2021 at 11:10 a.m. ET
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