The long-awaited NBA playoffs tip-off on Saturday, April 15th and we have your essential NBA picks and predictions as the fifth-seeded Utah Jazz head to Texas to take on the fourth-ranked Dallas Mavericks.
Game 1 of Jazz vs. Mavericks looks to be a critical opportunity for Utah, who will try to steal an early road win with Dallas likely to be without Luka Doncic for at least Saturday’s matchup.
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Jazz vs Mavericks odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
With ongoing updates as to Luka Doncic’s health status making it seem increasingly likely he misses Game 1, this line has seen a ton of movement. Opening at as much as Utah +3.5 at some books, it’s now moved over seven points to Jazz -5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Jazz vs Mavericks predictions
Predictions made on 4/15/2022 at 2:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Jazz vs Mavericks game info
• Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
• Date: Saturday, April 16, 2022
• Tip-off: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Jazz vs Mavericks series odds
Jazz: -300
Mavericks: +230
Jazz vs Mavericks betting preview
Key injuries
Jazz: No injuries to report.
Mavericks: Luka Doncic (Out), Maxi Kleber (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Over is 5-0 in Utah's last five games playing on three or more days rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Mavericks.
Jazz vs Mavericks picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
While there are conflicting reports about Luka Doncic’s status for Saturday, Shams Charania has reported that he is expected to miss Game 1 as he continues to rehab his calf injury. Not only that, but Maxi Kleber, who is an important piece of their closing unit, remains listed out by ESPN with a nagging ankle injury.
Of course, there’s an outside chance they do play, but in both cases, one must expect they wouldn’t be 100% healthy. Dallas is not likely to play brinkmanship with the health of their likely future MVP, and I expect we won’t see Luka return until Game 3 at the earliest.
As the line movement has indicated, the balance of power shifts decisively in Utah’s favor with Doncic absent. But even before Luka went out, it’s possible that the Jazz have not been getting enough respect from oddsmakers.
Utah has been subject to much public skepticism recently after a series of high-profile meltdowns, including blowing yet another 25-point lead to the Los Angeles Clippers in Paul George’s return game.
However, it would be foolhardy to underestimate Utah. With an offensive rating of 117.6, this is still hands-down the best offense in the NBA, and in Rudy Gobert, they still have arguably the single most impactful defender in the league. The Jazz' spread pick and roll with Mike Conley at the helm is deadly, and if that fails, Donovan Mitchell in isolation is a mighty fine option to go to at the end of the clock.
But that doesn’t mean that Dallas will go down without a fight. Jalen Brunson has stepped up admirably in Luka’s few absences this season and last, and the addition of Spencer Dinwiddie gives them just enough credible perimeter playmaking.
Offensively, the two teams play similar styles, though differentiated by their personnel. They use the threat of a rolling big (Rudy Gobert in Utah’s case, Dwight Powell in Dallas’) to pressure the rim, force help on the interior, and then spray passes to outside shooters for an endless barrage of 3-point shots. Both teams were in the Top 5 in the NBA this season as far as the portion of their offense generated with the 3-ball, with Utah ranking No. 1 overall at 43.3%.
There are some structural advantages that Dallas can still lean on, even in Luka’s absence. For one, the Mavericks don’t need to attack the rim to succeed, as they’re second to last in shots at the basket. Utah, as one would expect with a team anchored by Rudy Gobert, is defined by its ability to protect the paint.
Much like the Clippers last season, the Mavericks being a jump-shot-oriented team takes away some of what Utah does best on defense.
Some might be gun shy about picking Utah because of their recent collapses, but it’s important to recall that they had to build those gaudy leads in the first place in order to have a chance to lose them. A Mavericks team without Luka (or with a greatly diminished version) simply doesn’t have the firepower to overcome this Jazz offense.
Prediction: Jazz -5 (-110 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Previous season matchups are of little help with the total, as in the sole game Luka did not play, the Mavericks leaned heavily on the since traded Kristaps Porzingis for offense. For their part, the Jazz are fully healthy and rested. That’s key as they’ve hit the Over in their last five games with three or more days rest.
The Jazz offense should hum as usual. The question is then whether the Mavericks will be able to force the Jazz into some costly rotations of their own.
Luka was second in the NBA with 22.2 drives per game, but Brunson was still relatively high on that list himself at 21st overall with 13.6, a number sure to rise now out of necessity. Breaking the paint and forcing help is critical to scoring against the Jazz, particularly for a Mavericks team devoted to winning by 3-point shooting.
Though Utah ranked ninth in defense this year, that’s almost all due to the Herculean efforts of Rudy Gobert. Their perimeter defense is much shakier, manned by either aging veterans or givers of suspect effort.
As long as Brunson can beat his man and force help, the Mavericks will still be able to generate a lot of threes. Given that Brunson will have a speed advantage against almost anyone he goes up against, I expect the Mavericks to score better than they’re being given credit for.
Prediction: Over 210.5 (-105 at Betway)
Best bet
When a star is out, role players are thrust into the foreground. After a shaky start to the season, Reggie Bullock has become an essential piece for the Dallas Mavericks on both ends.
He figures to be the primary beneficiary of Dinwiddie and Brunson’s drive and kick game, and he’s shooting over 40% from deep since January 1 on 6.8 attempts per game.
In any game that matters, Bullock is a lock for 35+ minutes per game. Conley and Bullock have guarded each other in their recent matchups, and Conley’s footspeed is not what it used to be on closeouts.
He should have ample opportunity to cash this prop.
Pick: Reggie Bullock Over 2.5 made threes (-135)
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