The Denver Nuggets haven’t been at their best in March, but they’re huge favorites to end the month on a high note tonight against the 16-58 Utah Jazz.
Utah has only recorded one win from its last 15 contests, and my Jazz vs. Nuggets predictions target Denver’s supporting cast for some fireworks here. Check out my NBA picks for a March 28 clash that should serve up one-way traffic.
Jazz vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet: Michael Porter Jr. Over 17.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Denver Nuggets had 36 assists on 49 made field goals in Nikola Jokic’s return from a five-game absence on Wednesday night as the offense effortlessly clicked back into place. Joker’s 39-10-10 stat line jumped off the screen, but so did his impact on his team-mates.
Michael Porter Jr. is typically one of the biggest beneficiaries, and he finished with 23 points on just nine shots in midweek, knocking down six of his eight triples. That’s where I’m looking for my best bet tonight as Denver faces a floundering Utah Jazz defense.
Porter Jr. is averaging 18.2 PPG overall this season, and he’s logged four contests with at least 20 points this month. There could be even more shots up for grabs if Jamal Murray (questionable) sits out here.
The Jokic effect is hard to ignore. Porter Jr. was an icy 9-for-35 from downtown during the reigning MVP’s recent stretch on the sidelines, but he rediscovered his stroke in a hurry with Joker helping to set the table.
It’s also been encouraging to see MPJ getting to the free-throw line a little more regularly – 28 attempts over his last nine outings – though there’s still room for improvement in that area of his game.
I see Porter Jr. thriving tonight in a game where Michael Malone will surely be glad to ease off the workload for Jokic and Aaron Gordon. With the Jazz in full tank mode, this feels like a friendly matchup and a very manageable 17.5 O/U line.
Jazz vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Michael Porter Jr. Over 17.5 points
Christian Braun Over 14.5 points
Under 240.5
I’m doubling down on the Denver offense with the Over on Christian Braun’s points prop. Braun has become such a key cog for the Nuggets, and he’s another player who walks into open looks when Jokic is drawing a crowd.
Braun is shooting 48% from 3-point range this month, while averaging 15.9 PPG, and he’s gone past this 14.5 number in three of his past four contests. It’s no streaky stretch either – he dropped in 17.7 PPG in February.
Both these teams have trended towards the Over this year, but the line feels too high for tonight’s total. The Jazz have been held under 104 points in five of their last 10 games and could be without Lauri Markkanen again here. Plus, there’s no reason for the Nuggets to hammer the gas pedal if they’ve built a healthy lead.
The Under is 6-4 in Utah’s last 10 contests, and only two of the last 10 meetings between these teams has reached the 240-point mark.
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Jazz vs Nuggets odds
Jazz vs Nuggets live odds
Jazz vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Utah +17.5 (-110) | Denver -17.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Utah +1000 | Denver -2000
- Over/Under: Over 239.5 (-110) | Under 239.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Jazz vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Nuggets have won five straight against the Jazz, covering the spread in each of those matchups, including a 129-103 victory at Ball Arena in November.
- Utah is 7-28 on the road this year, while Denver is 24-12 at home, prompting tonight’s monster 17.5-point spread.
- The Nuggets have cashed the 1H Over in 24 of their past 34 home outings.
- The Over is 8-2 in Denver’s last 10 games, but the hosts rank last in the league in 3-point attempts per game, while the Jazz sit in the bottom third of the NBA in field goal percentage and points per game.
Jazz vs Nuggets trend
The Nuggets are 5-5 in their last 10 games and just 3-7 ATS in that span. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Jazz vs Nuggets
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Friday, 3-28-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | KJZZ, Altitude |
Jazz vs Nuggets latest injuries
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