Two teams at opposite ends of the Western Conference standings collide when the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Utah Jazz for an NBA Cup tilt on Tuesday night.
The Thunder sit atop the West with a blend of offense and defense pushing OKC among the NBA elite. No player embodies that two-way play like shooting guard Lu Dort, who will have a big role in tonight’s game with Utah.
My Jazz vs. Thunder predictions size up the spread and total for this Western Conference contest before giving my favorite NBA picks.
Jazz vs Thunder prediction
My best bet
Lu Dort Over 9.5 points (-120 at bet365)
My analysis:
Lu Dort has had an up-and-down start to the winter schedule for the Oklahoma City Thunder. After a strong opening month of action, the Canadian guard was mired in a shooting slump for the back half of November, watching his scoring output dip significantly.
Dort appeared to snap that skid in a 5-for-8 night against the Lakers last Friday, finishing with 14 points in just 24 minutes of play due to foul trouble. However, fouls would again limit Dort’s floor time at Houston on Sunday, playing just 27 minutes after fouling out with six points on 2-for-6 shooting.
Tuesday night’s matchup with the Utah Jazz seems like the perfect remedy for Dort’s offensive woes. Not only are the Thunder facing one of the worst defenses in the NBA (29th in advanced defensive rating), but they’re playing at home for just the second time in the past six games.
Dort sees a significant split in his efficiency inside the Paycom Center, scoring an average of 12.6 points on 44% shooting per home game, compared to 7.5 average points and 36% shooting success on the road.
He sees a notable increase in his 3-point shooting at home, taking an average of 6.6 triples and making 2.9 of those long-range looks (vs. 1.4 on 3.9 attempts on the road). Utah allows the fifth-most 3-point attempts to opponents, with those foes knocking down an average of more than 14 threes per night (23rd).
Player projections for Tuesday reflect not only the quality of the competition but also Dort’s uptick in OKC. Models range from 10.6 points to 13.7 points against the Jazz, with my number coming out to 12.4 points from Dort.
That’s more than enough scoring to eclipse his point total for Tuesday, which sits at just 9.5 Over/Under — a product of his recent road shooting struggles and not adjusted for his hot hand at home. Given my forecast, the Over 9.5 points should be priced more like -220 for Dort.
Jazz vs Thunder same-game parlay
Lu Dort 10+ points
Lu Dort 3+ threes
Thunder moneyline
Lu Dort gets to shake off his shooting slump at home against the worst defense in the West. He’s taking and making more triples at home and faces a Jazz defense doing a bad job protecting the perimeter.
The Thunder should cruise to an outright win after stumbling in their last game and looking to score a valuable NBA Cup victory.
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Jazz vs Thunder odds
Jazz vs Thunder live odds
Jazz vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Utah +15 | Oklahoma City -15
- Moneyline: Utah +750 | Oklahoma City -1,200
- Over/Under: Over 224.5 | Under 224.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Jazz vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- OKC opened as a 15-point home favorite and that spread has been bet down to -13.5. Covers Consensus shows 52% of picks taking the pile of points with Utah tonight.
- The Over/Under opened at 224.5 points and dropped to as low as 222 before buyback on the Over bumped the number back to 222.5 O/U. Covers Consensus shows 52% of total picks taking the Over.
Jazz vs Thunder trend
The Thunder are 20-1 SU and 16-5 ATS when set as double-digit home favorites over the past three seasons. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Thunder.
How to watch Jazz vs Thunder
| Location: | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-3-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | KJZZ, FDSNOK |
Jazz vs Thunder latest injuries
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