Jazz vs Trail Blazers Picks and Predictions: Flat Notes for Tired Utah

The Utah Jazz eked out a Friday night victory against the well-regarded Phoenix Suns, but now they must take their show on the road on short turnaround and battle the Portland Trail Blazers at the Moda Center on Saturday night.

The Jazz are surprisingly 11-6 after engaging in an offseason fire sale, but only 5-5 outside Vivint Arena. The Trail Blazers have come out at 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS through 15 games, to the surprise of many. 

Will Portland prove too much for Utah to handle on a back-to-back? Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Jazz vs Trail Blazers on Saturday, November 19.

Jazz vs Trail Blazers best odds

Jazz vs Trail Blazers picks and predictions

The Jazz are in an unenviable schedule spot on Saturday, as they must play in inhospitable Portland just one night after hosting the Suns in a one-point win that went down to the wire. Trail Blazers bettors can see a win that’s ripe for the taking, but rather than lay the four to five points in what could be a low-scoring contest, we’ll simply take the Under on the Jazz team total.

Utah has yet to play a road game on the heels of a home affair as the second half of a back-to-back this season, but they have played two road games on consecutive nights. They looked listless in each latter half. 

The Jazz went from New Orleans (a 122-121 overtime win) to Houston on Oct. 24, and lost 114-108 to a dreadful Rockets team. No player had more than 17 points (Jordan Clarkson), and leading scorer Lauri Markkanen (22.2 points per game) produced only 14 points, missing all six of his long-range attempts.

Then on Nov. 13, one night after losing to Wizards in Washington 121-112, Utah was manhandled by Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers, 105-98. Embiid’s seven blocks helped keep the Jazz to their lowest scoring output of the campaign. 

Utah is averaging 117.6 points per game overall this season, but only 113.8 points per game away from home. Their field goal shooting percentage falls from 47.1% overall to 45.4% as the visiting team, including a drop from 37.4% to 35.8% from 3-point range. 

The Trail Blazers are one of the league’s better defensive units, as they rank fifth in points allowed per game (107.7), 10th in opponent field goal percentage (46%), and fourth in defensive rebounding (41.2 per game). 

Most books have the Jazz team total listed at 111.5, but shop around and you’ll find a 112.5 or two as of Saturday morning.

My best bet: Jazz team total Under 112.5 (-120 at Unibet)

Jazz vs Trail Blazers spread analysis

Portland has the personnel in place to topple a winded Utah team on Saturday night.

After missing five games from Oct. 26 to Nov. 7, Damian Lillard has looked none the worse for wear since coming back to the court. While it’s true his shooting percentage has dropped from 49.5% in October to 38.6% in November, he’s raised his assists per game figure considerably from 4.6 to 9.4. In fact, he’s tallied a double-double in three straight contests. 

Lillard doesn’t have CJ McCollum to turn to anymore, but Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant have answered the call on offense for the Trail Blazers. The former is averaging a career-high 22.5 points per game, raising his 3-point output to almost four makes per contest (4.1 per game this month). The latter figures to bounce back in a big way following his worst effort of the campaign against the Nets (five points on 2-for-13 shooting). 

Trend bettors should note that the Jazz are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams with winning home records, while the Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played on one day’s rest.

Jazz vs Trail Blazers Over/Under analysis

Since we already like the Jazz to fall below their team total, it’s only logical to back the traditional Under as well. 

Portland has been an Under bettor’s delight this season, going 10-4-1 in that department through 15 games. Games involving the Trail Blazers this year have averaged a modest 217.4 points, with Rip City accounting for 109.7 points per contest, just 25th in the league. 

The average Utah game has averaged a robust 231.8 points this season, but bettors should anticipate Portland controlling the pace of play at home against a tired Jazz squad. The Trail Blazers tend to play one of the “slower” games in the NBA, as they rank 28th in pace (96.8 possessions per 48 minutes). 

There’s a slew of trends supporting the Under against this fairly high total, starting with the fact that these clubs have hit the Under in six of their last seven meetings. The Jazz are 7-1 to the Under in their last eight games against teams with winning records, and 5-1 in their last six games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous tilt.

The Under is 10-3 in the Trail Blazers’ last 13 contests played on one day’s rest, and 18-6-2 in their last 26 home affairs.

Jazz vs Trail Blazers betting trend to know

The Under is 17-8 in Utah’s last 25 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Trail Blazers.

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Jazz vs Trail Blazers key injuries

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