For the Golden State Warriors to even have a chance at avoiding the one-and-done play-in game as a ninth or 10th seed, they need to win at home on Sunday afternoon against the Utah Jazz. The Jazz, meanwhile, would love nothing more than to end their campaign on a three-game win streak and avoid a regular-season series sweep against the Dubs.
The books are leaning on Golden State, pegged as an 8-point home favorite in the NBA odds.
Let’s unpack the impact of this regular-season finale as I make my best Jazz vs. Warriors predictions with free NBA picks for Sunday, April 14.
Jazz vs Warriors predictions
My best bet
Jazz +8 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
It was a dramatic twist of fate for the Golden State Warriors after a tough 114-109 loss to the Pelicans last time out. That defeat dropped them out of the No. 8 seed — a position that gives you another game should you lose the opening play-in game — to 10th in the West. But a win over the Utah Jazz and a loss by the Kings to Portland (also on Sunday), would at least vault the Dubs to home court in that single elimination game as the ninth seed. Should the Kings and Lakers lose (L.A. plays NOLA), the Warriors could still finish in eighth.
However, the Warriors are still weighing who to play and who should rest — and finding that combination is a dangerous tightrope balance considering the stakes.
So far, Stephen Curry (ankle), Draymond Green (knee), Jonathon Kuminga (pelvis), Chris Paul (hamstring), and Klay Thompson (knee) are all listed as questionable. Gary Payton II is already confirmed out with a calf injury. Payton II and Kuminga — the “live legs” among those veterans — missed the Pelicans loss.
Meanwhile, the Jazz have had a spry finish to a 50-loss campaign, beating the Houston Rockets before posting a 1-point win over the L.A. Clippers on back-to-back nights. While they were blasted by 22 in their first head-to-head meeting with the Warriors, the Jazz have narrowed the gap, losing 140-137 on Feb. 15, and 118-110 on April 7.
If that’s not enough, Golden State will have to win at home, where it’s struggled all season. At 20-20 at Chase, the Dubs have the worst home record of any team in current playoff seeding.
It's not going to be light work today for the Dubs against a team playing loose and free and wanting to play spoiler.
Jazz vs Warriors same-game parlay (SGP)
Jazz +8
Stephen Curry Over 5.5 assists
Stephen Curry Under 5.5 threes
The books have made it pretty clear who they think is suiting up for the Warriors. As of late Saturday night, Curry was the only player on the home team given any player props. Let’s ride a pair of those for this same-game parlay, starting with his assist total of 5.5.
Curry had five dimes in the loss to the Pelicans, but he has basically been around this number in his last seven games, topping it five times, and missing it the other two times by a single dime. In the two games he’s played against Utah, he’s been a major facilitator, doling out 10 assists each game.
He’s also been lighting it up from distance of late. Curry went 7-for-13 from beyond the arc against the Pelicans. In his last four games, Steph has hit at least five triples in each. However, taking the Under of 5.5 made 3s is a logistics bet. While the Warriors would love a win, this is not a make-or-break game.
Steve Kerr is not giving his best player nursing a somewhat wonky ankle major minutes, and he will pull the plug on this one and take his chances in the play-in if the Jazz happen to build up any kind of formidable lead.
There are enough factors to lean on Curry not drilling six 3s on Sunday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Jazz vs Warriors odds
Jazz vs Warriors live odds
Jazz vs Warriors opening odds
- Spread: Utah +8 | Golden State -8
- Moneyline: Utah +269 | Golden State -315
- Over/Under: Over 222.5 | Under 222.5
Jazz vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Warriors are 16-23-1 against the spread at home this season.
- The Jazz are tied for the fourth-best Over record in the NBA at 44-36-1.
- The Over has cashed in four of the last six head-to-head meetings.
Jazz vs Warriors trend
The Warriors have only covered the 1H spread in 16 of their last 45 games at home (-17.30 Units / -33% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Warriors.
Jazz vs Warriors game info
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 4-14-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | KJZZ, NBCS-Bay Area |
Jazz vs Warriors latest injuries
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